The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this article, the high accuracy and effectiveness of forecasting global gold prices are verified using a hybrid machine learning algorithm incorporating an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The hybrid approach had successes that enabled it to be a good strategy for practical use. The ARIMA-ANFIS hybrid methodology was used to forecast global gold prices. The ARIMA model is implemented on real data, and then its nonlinear residuals are predicted by ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, and ANFIS-GWO. The results indicate that hybrid models improve the accuracy of single ARIMA and ANFIS models in forecasting. Finally, a comparison was made between the hybrid foreca
... Show MoreThere continues to be a need for an in-situ sensor system to monitor the engine oil of internal combustion engines. Engine oil needs to be monitored for contaminants and depletion of additives. While various sensor systems have been designed and evaluated, there is still a need to develop and evaluate new sensing technologies. This study evaluated Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) for the identification and estimation of the glycol contamination of automotive engine oil. Glycol contamination is a result of a gasket or seal leak allowing coolant to enter an engine and mix with the engine oil. An engine oil intended for use in both diesel and gasoline engines was obtained. Fresh engine oil samples were contaminated with fou
... Show MoreThrough recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth
... Show MoreDifferent ANN architectures of MLP have been trained by BP and used to analyze Landsat TM images. Two different approaches have been applied for training: an ordinary approach (for one hidden layer M-H1-L & two hidden layers M-H1-H2-L) and one-against-all strategy (for one hidden layer (M-H1-1)xL, & two hidden layers (M-H1-H2-1)xL). Classification accuracy up to 90% has been achieved using one-against-all strategy with two hidden layers architecture. The performance of one-against-all approach is slightly better than the ordinary approach
Some major pollutants of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) those discharged as water produced (WP) from the AlAhdab oil field (AOF) in the ponds close to it may leak to the water resources around and eventually reaches the marshes which will affect its ecosystem. Thus, this work aims to track the availability of PAH in the water resources and the Main Outfall Drain (MOD) nearby. The determination of PAH was evaluated using “High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC)”. The mean concentration of sixteen PAH in the produced water within the field was relatively high (0.01 to 10.89 g/ml) with standard deviations of (0.10.9). While, PAH outside the field were gradually diminishes down to (0.01-0.039) x10-2 g/ml which exceeds th
... Show MoreThe present study aimed to examine the effect of endosulfan insecticide on some molecular and biochemical parameters in white mice. Thirty mice were separated randomly into three groups for treatment with endosulfan. One group (G1) served as the control, while the other two groups received intraperitoneal injections of endosulfan G2 (3 mg/kg) and G3 (17 mg/kg) twice a week for 21 and 45 days, respectively. A biochemical study by measuring liver function parameters, including (alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST)) and kidney function parameters, including (Blood Urea and Creatinine) and malondialdehyde (MDA), catalase activity (CAT). This study also tested DNA damage by comet assay (normal%, low%, med
... Show MoreThe histological structure of Pycnonotus leucotis was investigated to fill the dearth of information on the histology of mid-brain from available literature and help understand its brain. The brain is wide and short and its length 1.5 cm, and it consists of three regions. The middle region is the mesencephalon. The mesencephalon was divided into optic tectum and tegmentum. The optic tectum consists of six main layers, while the tegmentum contains nuclei of cranial nerves.
This study was conducted on a sample of commercial banks in Iraq, chosen according number of considerations for twenty banks, contained two public banks and eighteen private banks. &
... Show MoreThis research study Blur groups (Fuzzy Sets) which is the perception of the most modern in the application in various practical and theoretical areas and in various fields of life, was addressed to the fuzzy random variable whose value is not real, but the numbers Millbh because it expresses the mysterious phenomena or uncertain with measurements are not assertive. Fuzzy data were presented for binocular test and analysis of variance method of random Fuzzy variables , where this method depends on a number of assumptions, which is a problem that prevents the use of this method in the case of non-realized.