The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Nasryia oil field is located about 38 Km to the north-west of Nasryia city. The field was discovered in 1975 after doing seismic by Iraqi national oil company. Mishrif formation is a carbonate rock (Limestone and Dolomite) and its thickness reach to 170m. The main reservoir is the lower Mishrif (MB) layer which has medium permeability (3.5-100) md and good porosity (10-25) %. Form well logging interpretation, it has been confirmed the rock type of Mishrif formation as carbonate rock. A ten meter shale layer is separating the MA from MB layer. Environmental corrections had been applied on well logs to use the corrected one in the analysis. The combination of Neutron-Density porosity has been chosen for interpretation as it is c
... Show MoreThe study concerned the embryonic development of spinal cord of white choeked bulbul Pycnonotus leucotis. The spinal cord at the age 40 hour’s incubation from the neural tube and its tissue wall is composed of two layers, the ependymal layer and mantle layer. The spinal cord differentiation is completed at the age 7 day’s incubation, its, were we notice that the central canal is clear and cavity lined with neurons and we note the arrangement of gray matter in the form of the letter H and its inside and it is characterized by dorsal and ventral horns and the gray matter substance and note the formation of dorsal medium spetum and ventral medium fissure.
On of the direct causes which led to the global financial crisis 2008 is decrease or collapse in liquidity of large financial institutions which is reflected on investments of a considerable number of institutions and persons.
This study aim's through out its three sections to explain the disclosure level of financial institutions which affected by Financial Crisis from liquidity information which explained in the statement of cash flow according to Timeliness and Completeness.
The study concluded an important result the company of research sample was disclosure in Timeliness and Completeness from all of accounting information is related in liquidity or that related in result of operations and financial position. The more
... Show MoreBackground: Orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances is frequently associated with difficulties in maintaining good oral hygiene and creation of plaque-retentive areas on tooth surfaces that are typically more prone to the development of caries; such drawbacks may result in white spot lesion (WSL) development that affects the esthetic outcome following bracket debonding. This review article focuses on orthodontic WSLs development, prevention, and remineralization potential via incorporating various remineralizing / antibacterial additives into orthodontic adhesives. Results: Unbalanced enamel demineralization and remineralization processes, along with rapid alterations in the dental plaque bacterial ecology, particularly acidogen
... Show MoreThree hundred Iraqi people participated in demographic and attitudes study about red and white meat consumption. The mean age of the participants was 50 SD ± 11 years (mean 30-72); 51% were females and 49% males, mostly in forties who lived ≥ 5 years in Baghdad. The results showed that 80% of individuals prefer red meat. A 90% of people prefer fresh meat compared to frozen and processed meat. A 60% of people buy meat from popular markets. Nearly 87% of respondents believe the improving of livestock sector is essential and 80% of people confirmed there are obstacles to development this sector. An 80% of participates thought the reasons of the high prices of local fresh meat is the lack of plann
... Show MoreThe research seeks to identify the image of foreign oil companies operating in Iraq among the public of Basra, and the research aims to clarify the mental image of foreign oil companies among the Iraqi public, and to identify the extent to which the Iraqi public benefit from the social responsibility programs offered by foreign oil companies and their contribution to improving the standard of living and services for the population. Nearby areas and society as a whole, the research is classified within descriptive research, and the researcher used the survey method for the Iraqi public in Basra governorate, which includes the areas in which these companies are located, and he used the scale tool to find out, so he distributed 600 que
... Show MoreThis research deals with the attitude of oil press towards oil industry in the world and the extent of their concerns with the stages of oil industry relating to the abundance of oil and natural gas, as it is an international strategic and complementary industry. The researcher uses the survey method for content analysis of the initial article and the press news for two: years (2011-2012). The results if the study are as follows
1- Oil press is concerned with developing and the stages of the Arabic oil industry in the interest of OAPEC in the first place.
2- It is concerned with exploring, extracting, and marketing oil in the first place, then with refining operations in refineries and petrochemical plants in the second place, an
Different ANN architectures of MLP have been trained by BP and used to analyze Landsat TM images. Two different approaches have been applied for training: an ordinary approach (for one hidden layer M-H1-L & two hidden layers M-H1-H2-L) and one-against-all strategy (for one hidden layer (M-H1-1)xL, & two hidden layers (M-H1-H2-1)xL). Classification accuracy up to 90% has been achieved using one-against-all strategy with two hidden layers architecture. The performance of one-against-all approach is slightly better than the ordinary approach
Through recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth
... Show MoreIn this article, the high accuracy and effectiveness of forecasting global gold prices are verified using a hybrid machine learning algorithm incorporating an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The hybrid approach had successes that enabled it to be a good strategy for practical use. The ARIMA-ANFIS hybrid methodology was used to forecast global gold prices. The ARIMA model is implemented on real data, and then its nonlinear residuals are predicted by ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, and ANFIS-GWO. The results indicate that hybrid models improve the accuracy of single ARIMA and ANFIS models in forecasting. Finally, a comparison was made between the hybrid foreca
... Show More