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A noval SVR estimation of figarch modal and forecasting for white oil data in Iraq

The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 16 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Colord Image White Cracks In-Painting Method

The gaps and cracks in an image result from different reasons and affect the images. There are various methods concerning gaps replenishment along with serious efforts and proposed methodologies to eliminate cracks in diverse tendencies. In the current research work a color image white crack in-painting system has been introduced. The proposed inpainting system involved on two algorithms. They are Linear Gaps Filling (LGF) and the Circular Gaps Filling (CGF). The quality of output image depends on several effects such as: pixels tone, the number of pixels in the cracked area and neighborhood of cracked area and the resolution the image. The quality of the output images of two methods (linear method: average Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PS

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge for the Main Aquifer in the Northeastern Missan Governorate, South of Iraq Using Chloride Mass Balance Technique

The groundwater recharge from rainfall for the main shallow aquifer in the northeastern Missan governorate south of Iraq is investigated via classical and refined chloride mass balance techniques. Application of both techniques reveals that the mean annual groundwater recharge is 0.82 mm/y. The annual recharge received by the aquifer approximately reaches to three million cubic meters after multiply this figure by the area of the study area (about 1856 km2). This figure represents a renewable storage from which a sustainable management of the groundwater reserve could be implemented. The techniques applied are robust, costly-effective, and could be used with other methods such as groundwater table fluctuation method to give a more realis

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Measurement of radionuclides in imported Coffee Consumed in Basra southern of Iraq and estimation of its annual effective dose

Radioactive elements were identified in samples of imported coffee consumed in the province of Basra using gamma spectrometry SAM940TM. It is a scintillation detector of NaI(Tl) crystal and the dimensions of 2×2 inch. We have identified specific concentration As(Bq/kg) and annual effective dose D(Sv/y) for radioactive elements (_^40)K, (_^131)I, (_^134)Cs and (_^137)Cs. The estimated average effective dose for adults from coffee samples were found to be 0.037mSv/y, 88.434nSv/y, 46.909nSv/y, 27.212nSv/y for ((_^40)K,(_^131)I,(_^134)Cs,(_^137)Cs) respectively. The present results of the study revealed that the radioactivity was relatively low in the coffee and within the permissiblelimit.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 25 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Enhancement of Seismic reflectors by using VSP and Seismic Inversion in Sindbad oil field, south of Iraq

The purpose of this research is to enhance the methods of surface seismic data processing and interpretation operations by using the produced information of vertical seismic profile (measured velocity and corridor stack). Sindbad oil field (South of Iraq) is chosen to study goals and it's containing only one well with VSP survey (Snd2) that covering depth from Zubair to Sulaiy Formations and 2D seismic lines of Basrah Survey. The horizons were picked and used with low frequency contents from well data for the construction of low frequency model and it was used with high frequency of VSP to make the high frequency model that compensated to seismic main frequency through inversion process. Seismic inversion technique is performed on post s

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
2D Seismic Structural and Stratigraphic Study of Kirkuk Group Formation in Amara Oil Field- Southeastern Iraq

The Amarah Oil field structure was studied and interpreted by using 2-D seismic data obtained from the Oil  Exploration company. The study is concerned with Maysan Group Formation (Kirkuk Group) which is located in southeastern Iraq and belongs to the Tertiary Age. Two reflectors were detected based on synthetic seismograms and well logs (top and bottom Missan Group). Structural maps were derived from seismic reflection interpretations to obtain the location and direction of the sedimentary basin. Two-way time and depth maps were conducted depending on the structural interpretation of the picked reflectors to show several structural features. These included three types of closures, namely two anticlines extended in the directions of

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement and Analysis of Oil Price Fluctuations and Trends of Government Spending on the Security and Health Sectors in Iraq for the Period (2006-2016)

The objective of the study: To diagnose the reality of the relationship between the fluctuations in world oil prices and their reflection on the trends of government spending on the various economic sectors.

The research found: that public expenditures contribute to the increase of national consumption through the purchase of consumer goods by the state for the performance of the state's duties or the payment of wages to employees in the public sector and thus have a direct impact on national consumption

The results of the standard tests showed that there is no common integration between the oil price fluctuations and the government expenditure on the security sector through the A

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mathematical Relationship between Temperature Change and the Changing Consumption of the Product and Kerosene Consumption Forecasting for these years (2005-2015)

The aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Semi parametric Estimators for Quantile Model via LASSO and SCAD with Missing Data

In this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Reservoir units of Mishrif Formation in Majnoon Oil field, Southern Iraq

The reservoir units of Mishrif Formation in Majnoon oil field were studied by using available wireline logs (gamma ray, porosity and resistivity) and facies that derived from core and cutting samples for three wells including Mj-1, Mj-15, and Mj-20. The reservoir properties were determined and interpreted by using IP software. The results showed that unit D have the best reservoir properties due to high effective porosity, low water saturation and very low volume of shale. Furthermore, a large part of this unit was deposited in shoal environment. The other reservoir units are then graded in reservoir properties including units B, A, F & E respectively, except unit C, which is considered as a cap unit, because it consists of rest

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 05 2014
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
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