The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This research study Blur groups (Fuzzy Sets) which is the perception of the most modern in the application in various practical and theoretical areas and in various fields of life, was addressed to the fuzzy random variable whose value is not real, but the numbers Millbh because it expresses the mysterious phenomena or uncertain with measurements are not assertive. Fuzzy data were presented for binocular test and analysis of variance method of random Fuzzy variables , where this method depends on a number of assumptions, which is a problem that prevents the use of this method in the case of non-realized.
The great scientific progress has led to widespread Information as information accumulates in large databases is important in trying to revise and compile this vast amount of data and, where its purpose to extract hidden information or classified data under their relations with each other in order to take advantage of them for technical purposes.
And work with data mining (DM) is appropriate in this area because of the importance of research in the (K-Means) algorithm for clustering data in fact applied with effect can be observed in variables by changing the sample size (n) and the number of clusters (K)
... Show MoreThis research will cover different aspects of estimating process of construction work in a desert area. The inherent difficulties which accompany the cost estimating of the construction works in desert environment in a developing country, will stem from the limited information available, resources scarcity, low level of skilled workers, the prevailing severe weather conditions and many others, which definitely don't provide a fair, reliable and accurate estimation. This study tries to present unit price to estimate the cost in preliminary phase of a project. Estimations are supported by developing mathematical equations based on the historical data of maintenance, new construction of managerial and school projects.
... Show MoreWidely present in the environment, arsenic trioxide has been identified as a genotoxic substance that poses a serious risk to public health. The genotoxic potential of arsenic at low allowable dosage levels is assessed in this study. Four groups of twelve adult rats each were created from the 48 total. Animals in Group I were used as controls Chromosome abnormalities found in bone marrow cells were used to assess the mutagenic potential of arsenic. Hematological parameters were also assessed. At 60 and 90 days, the percentage of microsomal degranulation in the hepatic fraction increased and the amounts of RNA and proteins considerably reduced (P < 0.01) in all three dosages given. was employed in order to assess hematological par
... Show MoreAir pollution evaluation of the operational processes in the East Baghdad oil field was carried out. The analysis was carried out by ICP-MS technique. Total Suspended Particles (TSP) air load was higher than Iraqi Standards and world international allowable limits of World Health Organization. The mean concentrations of gases carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, in the air were within national and world standards, while the mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide was higher than standard limits. The air of the study area is considered a good quality for CO, CO2 and NO2 with no health effect, while it is hazardous for TSP that have serious risk for people with respiratory disease. The mean concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu and
... Show MoreSpot panchromatic satellite image had been employed to study and know the difference Between ground and satellite data( DN ,its values varies from 0-255) where it is necessary to convert these DN values to absolute radiance values through special equations ,later it converted to spectral reflectance values .In this study a monitoring of the environmental effect resulted from throwing the sewage drainages pollutants (industrial and home) into the Tigris river water in Mosul, was achieved, which have an effect mostly on physical characters specially color and turbidity which lead to the variation in Spectral Reflectance of the river water ,and it could be detected by using many remote sensing techniques. The contaminated areas within th
... Show MorePresent investigation aimed to study plasma BNP hormone estimation as predictor of brain stroke and neurocognitive in relative with other limitations in CKD patient. The case control experimental study was conducted on CKD patient at Yarmuk Hospital at Baghdad Province, Iraq from February to April 2020. The results showed that there were significant variances (P< 0.05) between CKD patients and control group, there was significant increase in BNP hormone and cystatin-C levels at patient, while ihematological parameters were significantly decreased. The parameters of lipid profile were significantly increased (P<0.05). The result revealed that there was relationship between BNP hormone level and CKD. This support that BNP level is related wit
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