The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The current study included a detail morphological study of all parts of the two species of the genus Tropaeolum L. (Tropaeolumceae) cultivated in different gardens, the roots, stems, leaves, flowers and fruit were studied in detail, also the pollen grains were studied, and there are photographs for all that parts were putted. A specimens of that taxa were studied in some Iraqi herbaria. The study found that there are many characters were used in differentiation of two species under study.
Undoubtedly, Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) are a major dilemma in term of mortality and morbidity facing the road users as well as the traffic and road authorities. Since 2002, the population in Iraq has increased by 49 percent and the number of vehicles by three folds. Consequently, these increases were unfortunately combined with rising the RTAs number, mortality and morbidity. Alongside the humanitarian tragedies, every year, there are considerable economic losses in Iraq lost due to the epidemic of RTAs. Given the necessity of understanding the contributory factors related to RTAs for the implementation by traffic and road authorities to improve the road safety, the necessity have been a rise for
... Show MoreThis study is carried out to investigate the prevalence of Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii) infections in cattle using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay targeting IS1111A transposase gene. A total of 130 lactating cows were randomly selected from different areas in Wasit province, Iraq and subjected to blood and milk sampling during the period extended between November 2018 and May 2019. ELISA and PCR tests revealed that 16.15% and 10% of the animals studied were respectively positive. Significant correlations (P<0.05) were detected between the positive results and clinical data. Two positive PCR products were analyzed phylogenetically, named as C. burnetii IQ-No.5 and C. burnet
... Show MoreThe anatomical features of Agave americana L. leaf have been described, transverse sections of the leaf have been examined, the epidermis is single-layered on both surfaces, the stomata are sunken and mesophyll is (2-3) layers of parenchyma cells, vascular bundles are collateral type. The pollen of A. americana was studied. The observation was made with L.M. (Light microscope) and S.E.M. (Scanning electron microscope) to determine the significance of pollen features as taxonomic characters. The pollen was monades, homopolar, monosulcate, and with large size, subprolate in shape from P/E ratio (Polar axis/ Equatorial diameter) and furrow length and width, exine thickness and ornamentation.
The objective of the investigation was to analyze the structure and administration of the political system in Iraq (post-ISIS). After 2003, the Iraqi political system suffered the fundamental problem of its failure to achieve the political and social inclusion that characterizes democratic systems, to guarantee the establishment of a "state for all", while respecting differences. Political representation has moved from the system of sectarian ethnic components, under the title of consensual democracy, to the representation of leaders and the realization of their interests and the interests of their parties at the expense of the groups that claim to represent them, which complicates the problem. In this sense, the new political syste
... Show MoreThe acceptance sampling plans for generalized exponential distribution, when life time experiment is truncated at a pre-determined time are provided in this article. The two parameters (α, λ), (Scale parameters and Shape parameters) are estimated by LSE, WLSE and the Best Estimator’s for various samples sizes are used to find the ratio of true mean time to a pre-determined, and are used to find the smallest possible sample size required to ensure the producer’s risks, with a pre-fixed probability (1 - P*). The result of estimations and of sampling plans is provided in tables.
Key words: Generalized Exponential Distribution, Acceptance Sampling Plan, and Consumer’s and Producer Risks
... Show MoreThe experiment was conducted to evaluate and performance comparison for moldboard and disk plows in central of Iraq in 2011. Three factor were used in this study included Two types of plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented main plot , three forward speeds of the tillage was second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and three levels of soil moisture was third factor included 21 , 18 and 14 % to determined data actual plow depth , Practical productivity, Volume of disturbed soil, Field efficiency , Slippage percentage in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied in the experiment Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications using
... Show MoreIn spite of economic importance of sugar cane and sugar beet as they described as industrial crops they still face decreasing rates of production and productivity in Iraq , and their production was not able to satisfy the local industrial demands for sugar . Thus this study aimed at studying and analyzing, production and productivity of sugar cane and sugar beet in Iraq and this has been done by using non serial data that can be obtained from official offices in Iraq . The area and production of sugar cane in Iraq recorded positive annual growth rates during 1970- 1978 which were 6% and 5% consequently , while the productivity of sugar cane recorded at the same duration of time negative annual growth rate which was 1% , while they recorded
... Show MoreReservoir study has been developed in order to get a full interesting of the Nahr Umr formation in Ratawi oil field. Oil in place has been calculated for Nahr Umr which was 2981.37 MM BBL. Several runs have been performed to get matching between measured and calculated of oil production data and well test pressure. In order to get the optimum performance of Nahr Umr many strategies have been proposed in this study where vertical and horizontal wells were involved in addition to different production rates. The reservoir was first assumed to be developed with vertical wells only using production rate of (80000–125000) STB/day. The reservoir is also proposed to produce using horizontal wells besides vertical wells with pr
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