The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this research, we use fuzzy nonparametric methods based on some smoothing techniques, were applied to real data on the Iraqi stock market especially the data about Baghdad company for soft drinks for the year (2016) for the period (1/1/2016-31/12/2016) .A sample of (148) observations was obtained in order to construct a model of the relationship between the stock prices (Low, high, modal) and the traded value by comparing the results of the criterion (G.O.F.) for three techniques , we note that the lowest value for this criterion was for the K-Nearest Neighbor at Gaussian function .
This research aims to discuss an important issue because of its role in increasing the efficiency of financial markets and boost investor confidence by a insider trading, which arises as a result of leaking secret information to some investors and reliable in the process of trading shares in the Iraq Stock Exchange And thus obtain abnormal profits at the expense of other investors. Research was based on the assumption that " Where shortcomings in local regulations relating to disclosure and insider trading in accounting information leads to the activate the phenomenon of insider trading in accounting information in the Iraq Stock Exchange and including a negative impact on investors' decisions ". and Because of the difficulty the discove
... Show MoreTanuma and Zubair formations are known as the most problematic intervals in Zubair Oilfield, and they cause wellbore instability due to possible shale-fluid interaction. It causes a vast loss of time dealing with various downhole problems (e.g., stuck pipe) which leads to an increase in overall well cost for the consequences (e.g., fishing and sidetrack). This paper aims to test shale samples with various laboratory tests for shale evaluation and drilling muds development. Shale's physical properties are described by using a stereomicroscope and the structures are observed with Scanning Electron Microscope. The shale reactivity and behavior are analyzed by using the cation exchange capacity testing and the capillary suction test is
... Show MoreThis research aims to explain the effect of the imported inflation (which moves through the raise of global prices to Iraqi economy) over local prices, besides, the recognition the most important channels of imported inflation moving, its causes, effects, ways and policies that reduce the negative effects. To achieve the research aim, the deductive approach was adopted through using descriptive method to describe and determine phenomenon. The most important conclusion is that the research found out that there are two channels to transmission imported inflation in world. The first channel is the direct channel (prices) and the second channel is the indirect (income). The most important recommendation is to create sovereign fund (O
... Show MoreAge, hypertension, and diabetes can cause significant alterations in arterial structure and function, including changes in lumen diameter (LD), intimal-medial thickness (IMT), flow velocities, and arterial compliance. These are also considered risk markers of atherosclerosis and cerebrovascular disease. A difference between right and left carotid artery blood flow and IMT has been reported by some researchers, and a difference in the incidence of nonlacunar stroke has been reported between the right and left brain hemispheres. The aim of this study was to determine whether there are differences between the right and left common carotid arteries and internal carotid arteries in patient
The elections of the Council of Representatives in Iraq are one of the manifestations of political participation, which makes it attracts the attention of researchers. Where Iraq witnessed in 2005 important political events in the Iraqi arena, a pluralist parliamentary elections or elections in Iraq by direct free election on January 30, the first almost half a century ago. On November 15 of the same year, Iraq adopted a permanent constitution for the country through a popular referendum.
The business process re-engineering is one of the popular concepts at this time because its provide a radical solution for the problems that companies faces. This method appeared because the changes of competition and costumers 'desires at the two last decades. The markets become wider because of the globalization so the companies must change its way to stay a life.
The research aim is to concentrate on the BPR because it's a philosophy aims to re-organize the company's business process to achieve the competitive advantage, the research also aims to a plicate the BPR using cost management technique in the State Company of Vegetable Oils Industry.
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... Show MoreThe demand for single photon sources in quantum key distribution (QKD) systems has necessitated the use of weak coherent pulses (WCPs) characterized by a Poissonian distribution. Ensuring security against eavesdropping attacks requires keeping the mean photon number (µ) small and known to legitimate partners. However, accurately determining µ poses challenges due to discrepancies between theoretical calculations and practical implementation. This paper introduces two experiments. The first experiment involves theoretical calculations of µ using several filters to generate the WCPs. The second experiment utilizes a variable attenuator to generate the WCPs, and the value of µ was estimated from the photons detected by the BB
... Show MoreYucca gloriosa Variegata L. is a stemless. The whole plant of Y. gloriosa L. has vast medicinal uses. TheNative Americans and North New Mexico used a tea from the leaves and roots to treat asthma, headache,wound healing. As well as it was being consumed as daily dietary. All part of Y. gloriosa L. is rich in saponinsteroidal glycosides. Saponin extracts are well-known to be highly toxic. Hence, present study was carriedout to investigate the toxicity of saponin and estimate the LD50 value which helps in determining the safedose range for the drug that be used, as well as to determine hematological aspects and examine histologicaleffect. Different concentrations of saponin extract were injected into male mice (10,000, 8000, 6000, 400
... Show MoreEstimation of the tail index parameter of a one - parameter Pareto model has wide important by the researchers because it has awide application in the econometrics science and reliability theorem.
Here we introduce anew estimator of "generalized median" type and compare it with the methods of Moments and Maximum likelihood by using the criteria, mean square error.
The estimator of generalized median type performing best over all.