The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The increase globally fossil fuel consumption as it represents the main source of energy around the world, and the sources of heavy oil more than light, different techniques were used to reduce the viscosity and increase mobility of heavy crude oil. this study focusing on the experimental tests and modeling with Back Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (BFF-ANN) of the dilution technique to reduce a heavy oil viscosity that was collected from the south- Iraq oil fields using organic solvents, organic diluents with different weight percentage (5, 10 and 20 wt.% ) of (n-heptane, toluene, and a mixture of different ratio
... Show MoreA field trial was conducted at Abu-Ghraib research station , Baghdad , Iraq , during the autumn season of 2006. The objectives were to study the effect of nitrogen fertilizer and planting space on the performance of rape seed. A split-plot in a randomized complete of block design with three replications were used. Five levels of nitrogen fertilizer ( 120,160,200,240,280 Kg / ha ) were assigned to main plots, where as planting space in sub-plots. The result obtained confirmed that 280,240 kg / ha nitrogen maximized seed yield 1.830 , 1.773 ton/ha, oil yield,0.843,0.824 ton/ha .Results showed that planting space 30 cm produced the highest seed yield 1.90 ton / ha and oil yield , 0.884 ton / ha . Interactions be
... Show MoreA field trial was conducted at Abu-Ghraib research station , Baghdad , Iraq . The objectives were to study the effect of nitrogen fertilizer and planting space on the performance of rape seed. A split-plot in a randomized complete of block design with three replications were used. Five levels of nitrogen fertilizer ( 120,160,200,240,280 Kg / ha ) were assigned to main plots, where as planting space in sub-plots. The result obtained confirmed that 280,240 kg / ha nitrogen maximized seed yield 1.830 , 1.773 ton/ha, oil yield,0.843,0.824 ton/ha .Results showed that planting space 30 cm produced the highest seed yield 1.90 ton / ha and oil yield , 0.884 ton / ha . Interactions between nitrogen fertilizer and p
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The research focuses on the key issue concerning the use of the best ways to test the financial stability in the banking sector, considering that financial stability cannot be achieved unless the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular are able to perform its key role in addressing the economic and social development requirements, under the laws and regulations that control banking sector , as the only way that increases its ability to deal with any risks or negative effects experienced by banks and other financial institutions. The research goal is to evaluate the stability of the banking system in Iraq, through the use of a set of econometrics an
... Show MoreThe current paper aims to identify potential factors associated with employees’ intentions to leave information and communication technology companies in Iraq. There is evident variability in the literature regarding these factors; hence, a factor analysis approach was employed to identify these factors within the surveyed environment. Due to the difficulty in precisely delineating the size of the research population, a purposive sampling method was employed to reach an appropriate number of respondents within the aforementioned companies. A total of 288 employees responded to the survey conducted via Google Forms. The test results revealed the presence of five primary factors associated with employees’ intentions to leave, name
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to apply Artificial Neural Network for heat transfer analysis of shell-and-tube heat exchangers widely used in power plants and refineries. Practical data was obtained by using industrial heat exchanger operating in power generation department of Dura refinery. The commonly used Back Propagation (BP) algorithm was used to train and test networks by divided the data to three samples (training, validation and testing data) to give more approach data with actual case. Inputs of the neural network include inlet water temperature, inlet air temperature and mass flow rate of air. Two outputs (exit water temperature to cooling tower and exit air temperature to second stage of air compressor) were taken in ANN.
... Show MoreObjectives: The research aims to highlight the semiotic approach and apply it to a photograph of the Pope's reception at Baghdad International Airport, published on the page of the Media Office of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi in the Twitter application, in order to study its components, analyze its contents and clarify its implications, as well as approach the image as a political and media act. Methods: The stages of research were accomplished by "investigation, observation, and analysis", and the dismantling of the composition of the photograph, thus revealing the hidden and hidden aspects, relying on the semiotic approach to analysis. Results: The study showed that the ideas and meanings included in the image in form
... Show MoreThis study identified the genus Coelastrella Chodat, 1922 which was isolated from a sediment sample taken from the Tigris river in Baghdad Governorate, Iraq. The alga was isolated and cultured in modified Chu 10 media and the morphological features of the isolated algae were observed in light microscopy (LM); it showed some characteristic features of this genus, such as its ellipsoidal or lemon- shaped cells, a visible pyrenoid and the chloroplast parietal. To ensure correct identification of the isolated alga, a molecular analysis using 18S rRNA gene and DNA sequencing revealed a match with C. terrestris (Reisigl) Hedewald & N. Hanagata 2002. This species is a new record in Iraq
... Show MoreThis study examines the causes of time delays and cost overruns in a selection of thirty post-disaster reconstruction projects in Iraq. Although delay factors have been studied in many countries and contexts, little data exists from countries under the conditions characterizing Iraq during the last 10-15 years. A case study approach was used, with thirty construction projects of different types and sizes selected from the Baghdad region. Project data was gathered from a survey which was used to build statistical relationships between time and cost delay ratios and delay factors in post disaster projects. The most important delay factors identified were contractor failure, redesigning of designs/plans and change orders, security is
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