The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
يلعب القطاع الصناعي التحويلي في أي قطر دوراً هاماً في تحقيق التنمية الصناعية، اذ تتحد تاثيراته فيها على طبيعة الدور المرسوم له وعلى مدى فاعلية هذا القطاع الحيوي الذي يعد اتجاه نحو التعاظم المضطرد لمستويات الانتاجية " Levels of productivity"والتنويع الانتاجي والتدفق المستمر للتجديد التكنولوجي من اهم دلائله.
ويعد مؤشر الانتاجية بصفة عامة وانتاجيتي العمل وراس المال بصفة خاصة من الم
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The research aim is to determine the relation between governmental consumption expenditure (GCE) & GDP in Iraq for the period 1981-2006.
The research has determined the scale of optimization for (GCE) & try to know the extent productivity of this expenditure and using the long run &short run model to test .The results clarify the following
1-The marginal productivity for the (GCE) is positive so it is productive.
2-The (GCE) in Iraq is too high because the marginal productivity for the expenditure less than 1.
3- The (GCE) percentage to GNP is
... Show MoreLarge quantities of petroleum-contaminated soil are generated with increased global energy consumption and crude oil production. This theoretical study evaluates the treatment of 1 ton of petroleum-contaminated soil using seven methods: incineration, physical washing, chemical washing, thermal pyrolysis, Fenton-oxidation-pyrolysis, the biological treatment, and asphaltenes. Data were based on experimental results from the Nahran Bin Omar oil lake in Basra Governorate, Iraq, (2019–2021). The methods were compared by waste generation, treatment cost, and duration. Results indicate that using petroleum-contaminated soil as a raw material for asphalt manufacturing is most beneficial since it is sold as a raw material. Incineration is faster a
... Show MoreThe developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz
... Show MoreThis study dealt with the basics of financial inclusion in terms of concept, importance and objectives, The empowerment of women financially and bank ,and then the relationship between financial inclusion and women, and determine the requirements of inclusion Financial resources for women. The analytical descriptive method was used for data, which included reviewing and analyzing information and data in economic and financial literature. The study: reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are Financial inclusion contributes to women's financial and banking support, as there is a positive relationship between financial institutions Banking and women's access to financial and banking services, thus playing a rol
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to use the data content analysis technique (DEA) in evaluating the efficiency of the performance of the eight branches of the General Tax Authority, located in Baghdad, represented by Karrada, Karkh parties, Karkh Center, Dora, Bayaa, Kadhimiya, New Baghdad, Rusafa according to the determination of the inputs represented by the number of non-accountable taxpayers and according to the categories professions and commercial business, deduction, transfer of property ownership, real estate and tenders, In addition to determining the outputs according to the checklist that contains nine dimensions to assess the efficiency of the performance of the investigated branches by investing their available resources T
... Show MoreA study of the Torymid collection of Iraq. resulted in undescribed species of the genus
Liodontonierus Gah. L. longicorpus sp. n. with 2 figures.