Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The reality of teaching the Arabic language rules is not satisfactory, as the pedagogical methods used do not help students develop their mental skills, especially critical thinking skills. They are often traditional in terms of teaching students, who are passive, passive, often passive, active, and often active, their listening task, and the teacher's task of narrating facts and judgments. It is a blind simulation student, a dependency on others, and a weak spirit of creativity, innovation, and opinion. The opinions of educators and teachers almost agree on the reasons for students' weakness in learning the rules of Arabic, and that the reason lies in the way of teaching. The difficulty or the ease of the rules of Arabic does not lie in th
... Show MoreThis research aims to find out "the effectiveness of the self-questioning strategy in the achievement of students Phase III institutes of teacher preparation and decision-making in chemistry." The researcher follows approach quasi-experimental with a post-test, and the sample consisted of (27) from " Teachers Training Institute-AL-Byaa "in Directorate of Education Baghdad Karkh / 2 students divided into two unequal groups: experimental its number (14) students studied using reciprocal teaching strategy and control its number (13) students have studied in the usual way.The two groups were equivalent extraneous variables.
The researcher was prepare achievement test consist of 40 items was the adoption of a measure of decision-makin
... Show MoreThe present study aimed to investigate the toxic and mutagenic and anti – mutagenic effects of the aqueous extract (5, 10 and 15 mg/kg) of green tea (Camellia sinensis) in modulating the genotoxic effects of mitomycin C (MMC). Albino male mice (Mus musculs) were employed as a biological system and four parameters were performed in vivo; total leucocyte count, mitotic index, chromosomal aberrations and micronucleus formation. The plant extract was evaluated through three types of treatments. In the first, the extract was given alone orally. While the second and third treatment included two types of interactions with MMC; pre – and post – MMC treatments. All treatments were paralleled by negative and positive control
... Show MoreBackground: Change in palatal vault shape and Reinforcement of high impact acrylic denture base resin may in turn affect the dimensional accuracy of acrylic resin and affecting the fitness of the denture.This study evaluated tostudy the effect of fiber reinforcement for high-impact acrylic resin denture base with different palatal vault shapes on adaptation or gap space between the denture base and the stone cast and compare with non-fiber reinforcement and effect of palatal vault shapes on adaptation of non-reinforced and fiber reinforced high impact denture base acrylic resin Material and method: Three different palatal vault shapes were prepared on standard casts using CNC (computer numerical control) machine. 60 samples of heat polymeri
... Show MoreBackground: The goal of a root canal treatment is three dimensional obturation with a complete seal of the root canal system. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the effect of two warm obturation techniques, warm vertical compaction (WVC) and, carrier based obturation technique Gutta Core (GC), versus two cold obturation techniques, cold lateral compaction (CLC) and, single cone (SC) on push-out bond strength of bioceramic sealer (Total Fill) at three different root levels. Materials and Methods: Forty extracted maxillary first molars teeth with a straight round palatal root canal and mature apices were selected for this study. After sectioning the palatal roots to 11 mm from the root apex, the canals were prepared wit
... Show MoreBackground: The goal of a root canal treatment is three dimensional obturation with a complete seal of the root canal system. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the effect of two warm obturation techniques, warm vertical compaction (WVC) and, carrier based obturation technique Gutta Core (GC), versus two cold obturation techniques, cold lateral compaction (CLC) and, single cone (SC) on push-out bond strength of bioceramic sealer (Total Fill) at three different root levels. Materials and Methods: Forty extracted maxillary first molars teeth with a straight round palatal root canal and mature apices were selected for this study. After sectioning the palatal roots to 11 mm from the root apex, the canals were
... Show MoreThis research aims at building a proposed training program according to the self-regulated strategies for the mathematics teachers and to identify the effect of this program on relational Mathematics of teachers. The sample of the research was (60) Math teachers; (30) teachers as experimental group and (30) teachers as control group. The results of the current research reacheded that the proposed training program according to some self-managed learning strategies, meets the needs of trainees with remarkable effectiveness to improve the level of their teaching performance to achieve the desired goals. Training teacher according to self-managed learning strategies is effective in bringing about the transition of training to their students
... Show MoreIn this work, some of new 2-benzylidenehydrazinecarbothioamide derivatives have been prepared by condensation of thiosemicarbazide and different substituted aromatic benzaldehydes in presence of glacial acetic acid to give compounds (1-6), these compounds have characterized by its physical properties and spectroscopic methods. This work also included theoretical study to prove the ability of these compounds as corrosion inhibitors; The program package of Gaussian 09W with its graphical user interface GaussView 5.0 had used for this purpose; the methods of Density Functional Theory (DFT) with basis set of 6-311G (d,p) / hybrid function of B3LYP and semiempirical method of PM3 have been used, the study included theoretical simulation
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