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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Gingival condition, enamel anomalies and traumatic dental injuries among 14-15 years intermediate school male students in Al-Khalis City/Iraq
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Background: One of the most common and prevalent oral diseases among adolescents is periodontal disease particularly gingivitis, however enamel anomalies and dental trauma could occur. Aims of the study: This study was conducted among 14-15 years intermediate school male students in urban area of Al-Khalis city to assess the oral hygiene (dental plaque) and to estimate the prevalence and severity of gingivitis, enamel anomalies, as well as traumatic dental injuries, furthermore to show the significant difference between these two ages concerning these oral problems. Materials and methods: In this study the total sample consisted of 735 students (397 aged 15 years and 338 aged 14 years ). In present study dental plaque was recorded accord

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 29 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The net effect of the nominal protection coefficients in the production of table eggs and poultry meat in Iraq For the period 1990- 2013.: The net effect of the nominal protection coefficients in the production of table eggs and poultry meat in Iraq For the period 1990- 2013.
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The research aims to measure the net nominal protection coefficients for the products table eggs and poultry meat and the extent of its impact on domestic production volume for the period of 1990- 2013 has been the use of mathematical formulas simplified in the calculation of the transaction process with a view to the extent of support and protection offered by the state pricing policy for products Resources Sector Animal in Iraq and reach search Highlights and most important, there are volatile price state policy with regard to eggs and poultry meat, as it ranged net nominal protection coefficients between the larger and less than the right one, which means that values are unstable to support local producers or consumers, and can be The

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
BIOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND PREDATORY EFFICIENY OF PREDATOR Chilocorus bipustulatus (L.) COLEOPTERA :COCCINELLIDAE ON DATE PALM SCALE Parlatoria blanchardi (T.) DIASPIDIDAE: HOMOPTERA UNDER LABORATORY CONDITIONS.: BIOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND PREDATORY EFFICIENY OF PREDATOR Chilocorus bipustulatus (L.) COLEOPTERA :COCCINELLIDAE ON DATE PALM SCALE Parlatoria blanchardi (T.) DIASPIDIDAE: HOMOPTERA UNDER LABORATORY CONDITIONS.
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Laboratory studies were conducted at the biological control unit, college of Agriculture, University of Baghdad to evaluate some biological aspects of the predator Chilocorus bipustulatus (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), which is considered one of the most important predators on many insect pests, especially the scale insect, Parlatoria blanchardi, (Homoptera: Diaspididae) on date palms. The results showed that biological parameters of the predator were varied according to different degree of temperature. Egg incubation period was significantly different and reached to 7.5 and 5.44 day at 25 and 30°C respectively, Fertility was the same 100% at both temperature degrees. Larval growth periods were 17.41 and 16.12 day as well as the mortality

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The vision of Hebrew writers and critics of the future of the Jews in their writings at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the twentieth c: דעותיהם של הסופרים והמבקרים העבריים על עתידם של היהודים לפי כתבותיהם בשלהי המאה ה-19 ובתחילת המאה ה-20
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It is very known  how great is the  role of the Jewish writers in the system of the Zionist movement. The movement relied on writers and writers to carry out their programs, especially those pertaining to the creation of a "national homeland" for Jews. Most Jewish writers sang of  Palestine even though they were not born there.

    On such a  basis, we have followed closely the writings of writers, critics and others by the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century. We found that these writings are based on one common question: What is the fate of the Jewish people?

    Most of these writings were accompanied by Theodor Herzl's proj

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 24 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The role of e-commerce in the insurance industry and its impacts on consumer rights (In the case of the National Insurance Company study): The role of e-commerce in the insurance industry and its impacts on consumer rights (In the case of the National Insurance Company study)
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The e-commerce is one of the best achievements of the twentieth century, since the conduct commercial transactions via the Internet may be the consumer easy selection process and purchase convenient manner different from traditional methods, and with the beginnings of the new millennium impose the emergence of e-commerce term significant challenges to the insurance industry as an important economic sectors Generally, and insurance companies in particular as a result of scientific development, which has led to a reduction in costs and innovation in the production, which led to intense competition on both levels local or global. The insurance industry is a vital part of the economy and it has a varied impact to the community and individual

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 25 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ROLE OF PROMOTIONAL MIX ELEMENTS IN ENHANCING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: GENERAL COMPANY FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF PHARMACEUTICALS AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES IN SAMARRA / CASE STUDY.: THE ROLE OF PROMOTIONAL MIX ELEMENTS IN ENHANCING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: GENERAL COMPANY FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF PHARMACEUTICALS AND MEDICAL SUPPLIES IN SAMARRA / CASE STUDY.
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The research is based on a statement of the effect and nature of the relationship of elements of promotional mix represented by (advertising, personal selling, sales promotion, public relations and direct marketing) as the independent variable in the dependent variable represented in the competitive advantage in the General Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies Samarra. Analytical descriptive in the theoretical side, through the use of a number of literature from scientific sources (books, research and studies published in Arab and foreign magazines) was also relied on the methodology of the case study in the practical side, Data collection using the questionnaire tool, which was designed using the triangular Like

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Accounting achievement and its impact on the measurement of operational efficiency: Applied research in the company of refineries Center / Al-Doura refinery
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The issue of measurement of operational efficiency and productivity plays a major role in determining the weakness of the company, especially in relation to the productive processes, and thus starting to address these points and improve their performance. Hence the problem of research on how to determine the constraints in the production process, to identify weaknesses in the company. The research aims to clarify the role of throughput accounting in measuring the operational efficiency of the company in addition to clarify some of the constraints and causes behind them. The study concluded a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the availability of throughput accounting indicators that help in measuring operational efficienc

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of forensic accounting in winning compensation claims and its impact on the profits of the National Insurance Company: applied research
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                The research aims to shed light on the importance of forensic accounting and its role in winning compensation claims against the company because of the ability of the forensic accountant (the judicial expert) to interpret and analyze the data. The research community represents the insurance companies in Iraq. The research sample was represented by the National Insurance Company. Coverage of the theoretical and deductive approach in covering the practical side, based on the financial records of the National Insurance Company for years of research.One of the most important conclusions reached by the researchers was that forensic accounting has a role

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 10 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of different palatal vault shapes and woven glass fiber reinforcement on dimensional stability of high impact acrylic denture base [part II]
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Background: Change in palatal vault shape and Reinforcement of high impact acrylic denture base resin may in turn affect the dimensional accuracy of acrylic resin and affecting the fitness of the denture. The aim of study is to evaluate the effect of fiber reinforcement for high-impact acrylic resin denture base with different palatal vault shapes on linear dimensional change and effect of palatal vault shapes on linear dimensional changes of non-reinforced and fiber reinforced high impact denture base acrylic resin Material and method: Three different palatal vault shapes were prepared on standard casts using CNC (computer numerical control) machine. 60 samples of heat polymerized high impact acrylic resin maxillary denture base were fabri

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 22 2017
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmaceutical, Biological And Chemical Sciences
Testing the Efficiency of Probiotic in Reducing the Growth of Aspergillus flavas in Corn Stored and its Effect on Performance of Broiler
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This study has been done for testing the effectiveness and efficiency of probiotic in its ability to inhibit Aspergillus flavus , which secretes the aflatoxin B1 and compare it with materials that were approved to be effective in the inhibition of the growth of fungi and break down and reduction of mycotoxin. these are the filax substance and ozone gas. A laboratory experiment has been conducted to determine the isolates out of the fungus producing the aflatoxin B1.the isolate producing aflatoxin B1 has grown on the yellow corn seed. the probiotic was added along with the filax and they have been exposed to ozone gas and then they were stored from 30 days. A bio test was con conducted to knw the effects of biological toxin on the broiler me

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