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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 13 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
The Effect of Systemic Proteolytic Enzymes on Postoperative Inflammatory Response and Quality of Life after Surgical Extraction of Impacted Mandibular Third Molar
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Background: The surgical extraction of impacted third molar usually results in postoperative inflammation manifested as pain, facial swelling and trismus which may cause deterioration in the patient’s quality of life. Methods: This randomized controlled study included 56 patients indicated for surgical extraction of IMTM under local anesthesia. These patients were randomly assigned into two groups: a study group that included patients who received Tibrolin® postoperatively and a control group that did not. The predictor variable was whether to use SET or not. Pain measured by the pain numerical rating scale (NRS), facial swelling, and the degree of trismus were the outcome variables. The Arabic version of the Oral Health Impact P

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Phytochemical composition, total phenolic content and antioxidant activity of Anadara granosa (Linnaeus, 1758) collected from the east coast of South Sumatra, Indonesia
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Anadara granosa is a species of the class bivalve commonly found on the east coast of South Sumatra as a fishery commodity. This species has not been widely studied as a source of new bioactive compounds that have antioxidant abilities. This study aims to analyze the antioxidant ability of A. granosa against DPPH radicals and its phytochemical profile qualitatively. Samples were taken at the fishing port of Sungsang Village, South Sumatra, Indonesia. Furthermore, the samples were extracted using ethanol as a solvent and tested for antioxidants against DPPH radicals, total phenol analysis, and preliminary phytochemical test. Based on the antioxidant test results, the IC50 value of the ethanolic extract of

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Hazardous Materials
Cement kiln dust (CKD)-filter sand permeable reactive barrier for the removal of Cu(II) and Zn(II) from simulated acidic groundwater
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Assessment of undergraduate critical care nursing students ‘ knowledge and attitudes toward caring of dying patients in colleges of nursing at Baghdad university
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Impact of Electronic Health Information Systems upon Medical, Medical Backing and Administrative Business Fields in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of the Electronic Health Information Systems upon medical, medical backing and administrative business fields in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital and to identify the relationship between such impact and their demographic characteristics of years of employment, place of work, and education. Methodology: A descriptive analytical design is employed through the period of April 25th 2016 to May 28th 2016. A purposive "non- probability" sample of (50) subject is selected. The sample is comprised of (25) medical and medical backing staff and (25) administrative staff who are all

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Clinical And Experimental Dentistry
Comparison of the accuracy of intraoral digital impression system and conventional impression techniques for multiple implants in the full-arch edentulous mandible
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Nanomedicine Research Journal
Preparation, Characterization, Antimicrobial and Antitumor Activity of Chitosan Schiff base / PVA / PVP Au, Ag Nanocomposite in Treatment of Breast Cancer Cell Line
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Objective(s): Biocompatibility, non-toxicity, minimal allergenicity, and biodegradability are all characteristics of chitosan. Other biological properties of chitosan have been reported, including antitumor, antimicrobial and antioxidant activities. This research aim is the synthesis of drug compounds by preparation and characterization of polymer chitosan Schiff base and chitosan Schiff base / Poly vinyl alcohol / poly vinyl pyrrolidone Nanocomposite and study applications (anticancer cell line, antimicrobial agents). Methods: Chitosan Schiff base was prepared from the reaction of chitosan with carbonyl group of 4-nitro benzaldehyde. Polymer blend have been prepared by solution casting method. Chitosan Schiff base mixing with PVA and PVP

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Teaching Practices of Science and Mathematics Teachers Based on the National Framework for Future Skills in the Omani School
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Abstract

The research aims to identify the level of effectiveness of the teaching practices of science and mathematics teachers in light of the national framework for future skills in Omani schools. To achieve the objectives of the study, the researchers used the descriptive approach, as he designed a note card consisting of (30) phrases distributed on three axes: basic skills, practical skills, and technical skills. After verifying the validity and reliability of the tools, they were applied to a sample of (116) teachers. The results of the research revealed that the level of effectiveness of the teaching practices of mathematics teachers has recorded a medium degree with a mean (3.05). The results a

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 09 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Zirconium Silicate Nanopowder Reinforcement on Some Mechanical and Physical Properties of Heat Cured Poly (Methyl Methacrylate) Denture Base Materials
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Background: Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) has relatively unsatisfactory mechanical properties such as low flexural strength and impact strength also dimensional instability. Material and method: Zirconium silicate nanoparticles were coated with a layer of trimethoxysilylpropylmethacrylate (TMSPM) before sonication in monomer (MMA) with the percentages 1% and 1.5% by weight then mixed with powder using conventional procedure, (150) samples were prepared and divided into three groups, each group consisted of (50) samples, the first group prepared from PMMA without addition (control), another group with the addition of 1% wt Zrsio4 nanoparticles (experimental) and the third one with 1.5% wt Zrsio4 nanoparticles (experimental). Each group

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Metal Complexes of Multidentate N<sub>2</sub>S<sub>2</sub> Heterocyclic Schiff-base Ligands;Formation, Structural Characterisation and Biological Activity
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Abstract<p>The synthesis of ligands with N<sub>2</sub>S<sub>2</sub> donor sets that include imine, an amide, thioether, thiolate moieties and their metal complexes were achieved. The new Schiff-base ligands; N-(2-((2,4-diphenyl-3-azabicyclo[3.3.1]nonan-9-ylidene)amino)ethyl)-2-((2-mercaptoethyl)thio)-acetamide (H<sub>2</sub>L<sup>1</sup>) and N-(2-((2,4-di-p-tolyl-3-azabicyclo[3.3.1]nonan-9-ylidene)amino)ethyl)-2-((2-mercaptoethyl)thio) acetamide (H2L<sup>2</sup>) were obtained from the reaction of amine precursors with 1,4-dithian-2-one in the presence of triethylamine as a base in the CHCl3 medium. Complexes of the general formula K<sub>2<</sub></p> ... Show More
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