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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Reality and constraints of the use of computers in public schools in the governorate of Ma'an From the standpoint of teachers
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 This study aims to recognize the process of using computer in    publicschools in Ma`an governorate in terms of hardware, capabilities, and teachers usage. It also aims to identify the most important obstacles those schools face from a teachers perspective.

            The study sample consists of (150) teachers from different disciplines. The researcher prepared two questionnaires related to the research pivotal, then presented to a group of arbitrators to be used in this final form. The data was analyzed statistically and the study concluded that there is a shortage in the computer services provided to teachers, and there is a w

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 20 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Impact of inflammatory markers, dread diseases and cycle threshold (Ct) Values in COVID-19 progression. Revis Bionatura 2023; 8 (1) 33
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 25 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Evaluation of the Possible Protective Effect of Fisetin against Cyclophosphamide-induced Genotoxicity in Bone Marrow and Spleen Cells of Male Rats
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Fisetin is a plant flavonoid found in strawberries and other fruits and vegetables such as apples, persimmons, and onions. It has many pharmacological effects like anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, cardioprotective, neuroprotective, and anti-carcinogenicity which are attributed to its ability to reduce oxidative stress which considers the main reason for different disease conditions. Genotoxicity refers to the genetic material destruction within the cell which can be caused by different chemicals as well as radiation. The present study evaluates the effect of orally-administered fisetin daily for seven constitutive days on genotoxicity induced by cyclophosphamide in rats’ bone marrow and spleen cells. Results showed that fisetin exh

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use of lower squares and restricted boxes In the estimation of the first-order self-regression parameter AR (1) (simulation study)
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Use of lower squares and restricted boxes
In the estimation of the first-order self-regression parameter
AR (1) (simulation study)

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigating the Effect of Drugs of Chloramphenicol and Gentamicin on Acanthamoeba genotype T3 Causing keratitis Isolated from Environmental samples in vitro
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This study is an investigation of the drugs effect on some pathogenic Acanthamoeba isolated from Iraqi waters, where the problem of environmental adaptation that characterizes this organism in addition to being a reservoir for many pathogenic microorganisms that take shelter in it to escape disinfectants and medicines is sometimes difficult to treat it with traditional treatments.  Twenty water samples were collected from different water regions in Iraq, namely the Dokan Lake, Tigris River, Euphrates River and Najaf Sea, 5 samples from each source.  Acanthamoeba was isolated from water samples on NNA and PYG media, using an inverted microscope with an electron microscope to determine their phenotypic features. PCR and

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Pharmaceutical Nanotechnology
Preparation, <i>In-vitro, Ex-vivo</i>, and Pharmacokinetic Study of Lasmiditan as Intranasal Nanoemulsion-based <i>In Situ</i> Gel
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Background:

Lasmiditan (LAS) is a recently developed antimigraine drug and was approved in October, 2019 for the treatment of acute migraines; however, it suffers from low oral bioavailability, which is around 40%.

Objective:

This study aimed to improve the LAS bioavailability via formulation as nanoemulsionbased in situ gel (NEIG) given intranasally and then compare the traditional aqueous-LASsuspension (AQS) with the two successful intranasal prepared formulations (NEIG 2 and NEIG 5) in order to determine its relative bioavailability (F-relative) via using rabbits.

Method:
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of leadership skills in organizational trust Analytical research center in the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Iraq
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Formed leadership skills and organizational trust Based on intellectual that underpinned the current research, as represented leadership skills variable interpretative represented in organizational trust-response variable.

The research aims to test the relationship and the impact of leadership skills dimensions in organizational trust dimensions for the purpose of achieving its objectives were formulated hypotheses main relate to test the effect and the relationship between the variables of research for the purpose of testing those hypotheses applied research on a sample of heads of departments and officials of the people at the center of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, where th

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 08 2021
Journal Name
Physica Scripta
Adsorption of the eosin yellow dye by nickel oxide nanoparticles catalyzes via oxalate co-precipitation method: isotherm, kinetic and thermodynamic studies
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 30 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Transport Development And Integration
Sustainable Traffic Management Strategies for Congested Intersections: Multi-Criteria Assessment of Al-Sa’a Intersection and Al-Jari Street in Hit City
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The study aims to evaluate sustainable traffic management strategies for congested intersections in medium-sized Iraqi cities, with a focus on Al-Sa’a Intersection and Al-Jari Street in Hit City. These nodes face severe traffic congestion, delays, and infrastructure limitations that compromise urban mobility and sustainability. A multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) framework was employed to analyze three categories of interventions—engineering, planning, and administrative—based on five weighted criteria: traffic efficiency (40%), delay reduction (25%), cost (20%), environmental impact (10%), and social acceptance (5%). The methodology combined field data collection (traffic counts, travel time, and delays), GIS-based spatial analysis, an

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Impact of Electronic Health Information Systems upon Medical, Medical Backing and Administrative Decisions in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of the electronic Health Information Systems upon medical, medical Backing and administrativedecisions in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. Methodology: A descriptive analytical design is employed through the period of June 14th 2015 to August 15th 2015. A purposive "non- probability" sample of (50) subject is selected. The sample is comprised of (25) medical and medical backing staff and (25) administrative staff who are all involved in the process of decision making in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. A self-report questionnaire, of (68) item, is adopted and developed for the purpo

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