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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Electrosorption of Hexavalent Chromium Ions by MnO2/Carbon Fiber Composite Electrode: Analysis and Optimization of the Process by Box-Behnken Design
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A nano manganese dioxide (MnO2) was electrodeposited galvanostatically onto a carbon fiber (CF) surface using the simple method of anodic electrodeposition. The composite electrode was characterized by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Very few studies investigated the efficiency of this electrode for heavy metals removal, especially chromium. The electrosorption properties of the nano MnO2/CF electrode were examined by removing Cr(VI) ions from aqueous solutions. NaCl concentration, pH, and cell voltage were studied and optimized using the Box-Behnken design (BDD) to investigate their effects and interactions on the electrosorption process. The results showed that the

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
WITHDRAWN: Analyzing and measuring the impact of trade openness on the gross domestic product growth of the Iraqi economy after 2003
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Strategic Leadership in the adoption of Talent Management Practices Field research in the Ministry of Science and Technology
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The current research aims at testing test the relationship and the impact of strategic leadership (strategic vision, Core competencies , human capital, organizational culture and Ethical practices) in the talent management (to attract talent, performance management talent, developing talent and retain talent) among managers in the Ministry of Science and Technology Iraq, and figuring out  a number of recommendations to the ministry to help achieve its desired objectives, and to clarify the relationship between the variables to find the main and secondary aim of the research two major hypotheses have been formed which split into ten sub-hypotheses. Collecting data on  a form questionnaire has been relied on as an essenti

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Comparison consequence of violet and red laser irradiation on the optical properties of cobalt dioxide (CoO2) thin films prepared via (SCSPT)
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Microbial Quality of Paddy fields at Alfurat Alawsat Area, Iraq and the Effect of Milling Process on the Rice Contamination Level
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Fifty-Four paddy samples, 45 soil samples, and nine irrigation water samples of some paddy fields at Alfurat Alawsat Area, Iraq were collected to investigate the microbial quality including total count bacteria (TCB), molds and yeast, total coliform (TC), and E. coli bacteria. Paddy samples were processed at the laboratory level to produce rice at 32 and 36 whiteness, and the microbial quality of the produced rice was conducted too. The results showed that all irrigation water samples were overpassed the FDA limit for E. coli. All paddy samples were exceeded the good limit of TCB, but no sample exceeded the acceptable limit. Most paddy samples were exceeded the FDA limit for molds and yeast, and few paddy samples exc

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 11 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Ameliorative Role of Nutraceutical Quercetin and its Derivatives Against Cognitive Impairment Process Induced by Lead Exposure in Drosophila melanogaster(Fruit Fly)
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Cumulative lifetime lead (Pb) exposure has been associated with accelerated declines in cognition through the free radical generation and epigenetic effects. Several pieces of literature have identified a correlation between exposure to lead and neurodegenerative disorders. Harwich strain Drosophila melanogaster was exposed to lead acetate for two weeks, and changes in pulse transmission by acetylcholinesterase and systemic redox were evaluated. Besides, molecular docking studies of acetylcholinesterase against Quercetin and its most common derivatives contained in food have been performed. Pharmacokinetic studies on Quercetin and its derivatives have also been performed in silico toxicity. The data obtained showed alterations in antioxi

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Publication Date
Sun May 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Impact of Tobacco Use in the Etiology of Chronic Renal Failure Among Sudanese Patients: Tobacco and Renal Failure Among Sudanese Patients
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Background: Chronic renal failure (CRF) is a clinical syndrome that occurs when there is gradual decline in renal operation overtime.

Objective: This study aims to investigate the prevalence of depression among medical students at university of Baghdad, college of medicine in Iraq and the association between some variables and depression.

Aim: This study aimed to identify the impact of tobacco use in the etiology of chronic renal failure among Sudanese patients in Omdurman Military Hospital and Omdurman Kidney Dialysis Center

Materials and methods: This descriptive community-based study was conducted in Khartoum State. A random sample of 100 cases with chronic renal failure and 100

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Human Resource Management and its Impact on the Level of Job Performance: An Analytical Research in the Iraqi Ministry of Interior
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        The current research aims to highlight the role of human resource management with its practices (human resource planning, selection and placement, training and development, performance evaluation, compensation, and incentives) in raising the level of individuals' performance and its dimensions (task performance, contextual performance, unproductive work behavior, and adaptive performance) by explaining the research problem, which can be limited to the low level of performance of individuals, where the researchers use the descriptive analytical approach and the SPSS program in the practical aspect of the research community represented by the general manager and his assistant

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Applied Sciences
Examining Metal Complexes Formed from New Schiff Base ‎Ligand ‎Derived from Benzene Carbaldehyde: Evaluation of Anti-‎biofilm and ‎Anti-bacterial Properties
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One of the most difficult tasks in modern medical societies is the process of identifying a cure for many infectious diseases caused by drug-resistant microbes. Therefore, it has become necessary to discover new compounds that work in this regard. The currently prepared Schiff base, derived from thiazole, has a biological activity against bacteria and biofilms and its activity increases when it is associated with copper, zinc and platinum ions and forms metal complexes. This study highlights the synthesis and evaluation of novel biological compounds as inhibitors of bacterial growth and biofilms. A three newly complexes are resulting from the reaction of a new Schiff base ligand (LC) with metal ions (Zn, Cu, Pt). The new ligand (LC)

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Comparison effect of violet and red laser irradiation on the structural properties of mawsonite Cu6Fe2SnS8 [CFTS] thin films deposited via (SCSPT)
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