Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The rapid growth of cities and their inflation is a big problem, especially in the last years. this growth is accompanied by such problems like population growth, housing need, low level of services, random expansion, traffic congestion as well as pollution of the environment, which leads to a decline in the quality of life in Baghdad, the population are concentration in Baghdad therefore that leads to imbalance of development among cities and productive concentration for service projects in a mega cities, causing migration from other provinces In search of a better life. The main objective of the new cities is to relieve pressure on major cities and guide the growth of cities. Basmaya city it’s a new city project adopted f
... Show MoreBackground: Appreciation of the crucial role of risk factors in the development of coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most significant advances in the understanding of this important disease. Extensive epidemiological research has established cigarette smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension as independent risk factors for CADObjective: To determine the prevalence of the 4 conventional risk factors(cigarette smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension) among patients with CAD and to determine the correlation of Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score with the extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with unstable angina /non ST elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI).Methods: We
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Most universities in the world are largely committed to creating credible and transparent admission standards that provide justice in admission and have the ability to predict students' performance in their chosen programs. Hence, this study aimed to reveal the predictive ability of the acceptance criteria for the level of performance of master's students in the College of Education at Sultan Qaboos University. Quantitative data were collected from (115) students' admission documents for those accepted in the postgraduate programs for the academic year 2019-2020, and GPA data was collected from students’ transcripts for the fall semester of 2019. Qualitative data were also collected from the interviews
... Show MoreInterleukins (IL-2 and IL-4) are increased in asthmatics and were reported to induce resistance to steroid therapy in some patients who fail to get benefit from glucocorticoids when used in full dose and for long period of time. In this context, the present study was conducted on Iraqi patients to provide additional laboratory mean, beside the clinical diagnosis, for the decision whether the asthma is steroid sensitive or resistant by monitoring the level of immunoglobulins, complement proteins and interleukins among asthmatic patients (steroid sensitive or resistant) and the possible contribution of other factors like age, sex and environments in the development of steroid resistance. A total number of 55 asthmatics and 28 normal subjec
... Show MoreA thin film of SnSe were deposited by thermal evaporation technique on 400 ±20 nm thick glass substrates of these films were annealed at different temperatures (100,150,200 ⁰C), The effect of annealing on the characteristics of the nano crystalline SnSe thin films was investigated using XRD, UV-VIS absorption spectroscopy, Atomic Force Microscope (AFM), and Hall effect measurements. The results of X-ray displayed that all the thin films have polycrystalline and orthorhombic structure in nature, while UV-VIS study showed that the SnSe has direct band gap of nano crystalline and it is changed from 60.12 to 94.70 nm with increasing annealing temperature. Hall effect measurements showed that all the films have a positive Hall coeffic
... Show MoreThe aims of study is to detect the inhibitory effect of Saccharomyces boulardii and Lactobacillus acidophilus on Escherichia coli that has been isolated from recurrent urinary tract infection in women. The sensitivity of E.coli isolates to antibiotics had been studied and the most resistant E.coli isolate to antibiotics had been studied .The cup assay was used on nutrient agar and Muller-Hinton agar to detect the inhibitory activity for each S.boulardii yeast grown on YEGP media and L.acidophilus grown on MRS media in which the result showed a high inhibition activity for each of them .Also in this study the adhesion property of E.coli had been evaluated in the presence of S.boulardii at concentration of 1×109 and L.acidophilus at conc
... Show Moreفي الدراسة الحالية، تم تصنيع جسيمات ZrO2 النانوية باستخدام مستخلص نباتي مشتق من نبات Vitex agnus castus، ووسط قلوي مثل هيدروكسيد الصوديوم. تم استخدام أسلوب التخليق الحيوي لتحضير جزيئات أوكسيد الزركونيوم النانوية لهذا المشروع البحثي. تتميز هذه الطريقة عن غيرها بسبب فعاليتها من حيث التكلفة وبساطتها وقلة المخاطر المحتملة. وتم تشخيص العينات المحضرة باستخدام المجهر الإلكتروني النافذ TEM، المجهر الإلكتروني الماسح SEM،
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