This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
AbstractOBJECTIVES: To evaluate the long-term remission efficacy and safety of isotretinoin in the treatment of Behcet's disease (BD). PATIENTS and METHODS: This single-blind, controlled therapeutic study was conducted in the Department of Dermatology and Venereology at Baghdad Teaching Hospital from February 2011 to January 2012. Thirty patients with BD were included in this work. Each patient received isotretinoin 20 mg orally once daily for 3 months. They were assessed at week 2 and then monthly depending on the Clinical Manifestation Index (CMI) and to record any side effects. At week 12, isotretinoin was stopped and patients were given placebo therapy in a form of glucose capsules for another 3 months. RESULTS: Thirty patients were tre
... Show MoreIn this research two series of the new derivatives of Trimethoprim and paracetamol drugs have been prepared which known as a high medicinal effectiveness. Series (A) is including the interaction of diazonium salt of trimethoprim and coupling with some substituted phenol compounds (2-amino phenol, 3-ethyl phenol, 1-naphthol, 2-nitro phenol, Salbutamol). Series (B) is including the interaction coupling alkali solution of paracetamol with diazonium salt of some substituted aniline compounds (Benzedine, 2, 3-di chloro aniline, Trimethoprim, Anilinium chloride, 2-nitro- 4-chloro aniline).Chemical structures of all synthesized compounds were confirmed by UV-visible and FTIR spectroscopy.
The UN organization is considered one of the most important organizations at the international level. It has accomplished multiple tasks and roles of many different issues and events that hit the developing and advanced world countries. It has performed a series of procedures and laws that have had an impact on ending the wars and conflicts that plagued some countries and continued for a period of time in the past. Moreover, it has improved the level of the international relations between a number of countries due to the problems and incidents took place between them. It has relied on finding solutions and treatments for humanitarian problems such as the preservation of the environment, preventing the spread of epidemics and diseases Thi
... Show MoreBackground Solar irradiance is a nonlinear and intermittent function, which makes accurate forecasting of solar power generation a challenge. The high variability of meteorological conditions is not well represented by conventional atmospheric models, thus hampering forecasting skill and model robustness. In this work, an advanced hybridization of multi-population cuckoo search (HMPCS) algorithm with machine learning (ML) methods is developed to enhance the prediction performance of photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with more reliability. Methods In this study, a hybrid modeling framework is proposed, called HMPCS–ML framework which captures the global search capacity of HMPCS and predictive power of sophisti
... Show MoreThe charge density distributions of 10 B nucleus are calculated using the
harmonic oscillator wave functions. Elastic and inelastic electron scattering
longitudinal form factors have been calculated for the similar parity states of 10B
nucleus where a core of 4He is assumed and the remaining particles are
distributed over 3/ 2 1p and 1/ 2 1p orbits which form the model space.
Core-polarization effects are taken into account. Core-polarization effects are
calculated by using Tassie model and gives good agreement with the measured
data.
ackground: Escherichia coli is one of the most
important bacterial pathogen that can cause several
disease to human being . In our study we try to
investigate the sensitivity resistance pattern of
Escherichia coli against three antibiotics ( Amikacin,
Nalidixic acid and Cephalexin).
Methods: For this purpose we collected 51 clinical
isolates of Escherichia coli from stool and urine of
outpatient and inpatient patients from different wards
of AL-SADER Teaching Hospital in AL-NAJAF
AL-ASHRAf, IRAQ, and tested by culture and
sensitivity test .
Results: The results appeared that Amikacin show
the highest percentage of sensitivity ( 66.66 % ) ,
while Cephalexin show the lowest percentage of
sensiti
Abstract---The aim of the current research is to identify the level of logical reasoning skills in chemistry students at the Faculty of Education for Pure Sciences/ Ibn Al-Haytham for the academic year (2021-2022). The differences in their level of skills according to the gender variable (males and females) and the academic stages (first- second - third - fourth). The descriptive approach was adopted because it corresponds to the nature of the research objectives. The research sample consisted of (400 )students selected in a relatively random stratified way. The researcher constructed a logical reasoning test, which includes (6) sub-skills , which is (proportional - probabilistic- synthetic- deductive- logic- variable adjustment). The psych
... Show MoreIncreasing material prices coupled with the emission of hazardous gases through the production and construction of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) has driven a strong movement toward the adoption of sustainable construction technology. Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) is considered relatively a new technology, which enables the production and compaction of asphalt concrete mixtures at temperatures 15-40 °C lower than that of traditional hot mix asphalt. The Resilient modulus (Mr) which can be defined as the ratio of axial pulsating stress to the corresponding recoverable strain, is used to evaluate the relative quality of materials as well as to generate input for pavement design or pavement evaluation and analysis. Based on the aforementioned preface, it is
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