Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
It is the grace of God and his grace that he accepts repentance for his slaves, forgives their bad deeds in return for their misfortune, or offers them a good deed, but pardons many of them for free. Therefore, it is not long for God Almighty to forgive His mercy for many of His slaves and bring them to Paradise with no punishment or punishment, even if they have committed some sins, because of the multitude of their favorable navigational disadvantages, or even without gratitude thanks to him and him. With all this, some have overlooked the old and new on these things and amazed at the hadeeth ((God may have seen the people of the full moon and said do what you want, I have forgiven you)). Therefore, the scholars tried to answer some of
... Show MoreThe Intelligence of the Child in Relation to some Variables
Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and
... Show MoreThe aim of study was making comparison in some kinematics variables in (100) meter butterfly swimming to first and second ranking in championship 2003 Espana, so noticed there is no such like this study in our country in comparison study for international champions therefore not specific and scientific discovering to these advanced levels, also the researchers depend on group of kinematics variables when the comparison making and it was included (50 meter the first, 50 meter the second, the differences between the first (50) meter and the second , more over basic variables in (100) meter butterfly , after having the results and treat it statistically the researchers reaches to two conclusions which was: • Success the first rank in startin
... Show MoreThe tagged research is concerned with observation and investigating the concepts of consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting (selected models) in order to reveal the mechanisms and rules of these two concepts in the artistic field and their mechanisms of operation. How reflected tools Consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting? What is consistency and what are its mechanisms and principles? Is consistency a unit product quality? Are there similarities between consistency and harmony? What is harmony and its principles and rules? As for the second chapter, it included two topics that dealt with the first topic - consistency and harmony between concept and significance, while the second topic meant - histor
... Show MoreThe two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo
... Show MoreA study that collected 240 samples and divided into two groups: the first 120 samples were for diabetics and the second 120 samples were for healthy people, and each group included (90, 20.10) samples from the mouth, urine and vagina respectively, The results showed positive (28.67, 4.00, 1.67) isolates of Candida. In the mouth, urine and vagina, respectively, of diabetic patients compared to (9.33, 2.33, 5.00) positive isolates in the mouth, urine and vagina, respectively, in the healthy. The rate of positive isolates in women was high in women with diabetes and healthy, and it reached 25.33 and 9.00 isolates, respectively, compared with the rate of isolates in men with Candida disease for diabetic patients and healthy people 14.67 and 2.0
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreIn The Name of Allah Most Gracious Most Merciful
It is no secret to everyone that the endowment is an important nucleus for the prosperity of Islamic civilization, especially in the fields of education, health, economy, and defensive military actions that fall within the door of jihad, and so on. Al-Ashraf, Qom Al-Quds, Cairo, and other parts of the Islamic world. What we will see in the research.
The search included a comparison between two etchands for etch CR-39 nuclear track detector, by the calculation of bulk etch rate (Vb) which is one of the track etching parameters, by two measuring methods (thichness and change mass). The first type, is the solution prepared from solving NaOH in Ethanol (NaOH/Ethanol) by varied normalities under temperature(55˚C)and etching time (30 min) then comparated with the second type the solution prepared from solving NaOH in water (NaOH/Water) by varied normalities with (70˚C) and etching time (60 min) . All detectors were irradiated with (5.48 Mev) α-Particles from an 241Am source in during (10 min). The results that Vb would increase with the increase of
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