The researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting a stable transitional probability matrix and predicting each studied case and any behavior may take in the future.
Each phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Ho
... Show MoreThe Ant System Algorithm (ASA) is a member of the ant colony algorithms family in swarm intelligence methods (part of the Artificial Intelligence field), which is based on the behavior of ants seeking a path and a source of food in their colonies. The aim of This algorithm is to search for an optimal solution for Combinational Optimization Problems (COP) for which is extremely difficult to find solution using the classical methods like linear and non-linear programming methods.
The Ant System Algorithm was used in the management of water resources field in Iraq, specifically for Haditha dam which is one of the most important dams in Iraq. The target is to find out an efficient management system for
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is applying the robustness in Linear programming(LP) to get rid of uncertainty problem in constraint parameters, and find the robust optimal solution, to maximize the profits of the general productive company of vegetable oils for the year 2019, through the modify on a mathematical model of linear programming when some parameters of the model have uncertain values, and being processed it using robust counterpart of linear programming to get robust results from the random changes that happen in uncertain values of the problem, assuming these values belong to the uncertainty set and selecting the values that cause the worst results and to depend buil
... Show MoreThis paper includes the application of Queuing theory with of Particle swarm algorithm or is called (Intelligence swarm) to solve the problem of The queues and developed for General commission for taxes /branch Karkh center in the service stage of the Department of calculators composed of six employees , and it was chosen queuing model is a single-service channel M / M / 1 according to the nature of the circuit work mentioned above and it will be divided according to the letters system for each employee, and it was composed of data collection times (arrival time , service time, departure time)
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Abstract:
This study is studied one method of estimation and testing parameters mediating variables in a structural equations model SEM is causal steps method, in order to identify and know the variables that have indirect effects by estimating and testing mediation variables parameters by the above way and then applied to Iraq Women Integrated Social and Health Survey (I-WISH) for year 2011 from the Ministry of planning - Central statistical organization to identify if the variables having the effect of mediation in the model by the step causal methods by using AMOS program V.23, it was the independent variable X represents a phenomenon studied (cultural case of the
The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.
In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete
... Show MoreMaulticollinearity is a problem that always occurs when two or more predictor variables are correlated with each other. consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with biased estimates results, There are several methods which are proposed to handle this problem including the method To address a problem and method To address a problem , In this research a comparisons are employed between the biased method and unbiased method with Bayesian using Gamma distribution method addition to Ordinary Least Square metho
... Show MoreWe have investigated in this research, the contents of the electronic cigarette (Viber) and the emergence of the phenomenon of electronic smoking (vibing) were discussed, although the topic of smoking is one of the oldest topics on which many articles and research have been conducted, electronic smoking has not been studied according to statistical scientific research, we tried in this research to identify the concept of electronic smoking to sample the studied data and to deal with it in a scientific way. This research included conducting a statistical analysis using the factor analysis of a sample taken randomly from some colleges in Bab Al-medium in Baghdad with a size of (70) views where (КМО) and a (bartlett) tests
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and for
... Show MoreThis paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
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