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Predicting changes on budget expenditures using Markov chains with practical application
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The researchers have a special interest in studying  Markov  chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable  samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one  of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying  Maximum likelihood estimation  and Ordinary least squares  methods resulting a stable  transitional probability matrix and predicting each studied case  and any behavior may take  in the future.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Methods For Estimating The Gamma Regression With Practical Application
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In this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a mathematical model of the transportation problem under the dynamics of demand restrictions with practical application
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Abstract\

In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem  for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non-arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of the average sample size and defective ratio In a finite individualized inspection with a practical application
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The purpose of this research is to find the estimator of the average proportion of defectives based on attribute samples. That have been curtailed either with rejection of a lot finding the kth defective or with acceptance on finding the kth non defective.

The MLE (Maximum likelihood estimator) is derived. And also the ASN in Single Curtailed Sampling has been derived and we obtain a simplified Formula All the Notations needed are explained.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Robust Estimations of Cluster Analysis: Practical Application in Administrative and Financial Corruption
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Cluster analysis (clustering) is mainly concerned with dividing a number of data elements into clusters. The paper applies this method to create a gathering of symmetrical government agencies with the aim to classify them and understand how far they are close to each other in terms of administrative and financial corruption by means of five variables representing the prevalent administrative and financial corruption in the state institutions. Cluster analysis has been applied to each of these variables to understand the extent to which these agencies are close to other in each of the cases related to the administrative and financial corruption.           

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Some Methods of Estimating the Parameters and Survival Function of a Log-logistic Distribution with a Practical Application
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The Log-Logistic distribution is one of the important statistical distributions as it can be applied in many fields and biological experiments and other experiments, and its importance comes from the importance of determining the survival function of those experiments. The research will be summarized in making a comparison between the method of maximum likelihood and the method of least squares and the method of weighted least squares to estimate the parameters and survival function of the log-logistic distribution using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE, IMSE, and this research was applied to real data for breast cancer patients. The results showed that the method of Maximum likelihood best in the case of estimating the paramete

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 09 2018
Journal Name
اتحاد الاحصائيين العربوقائع المؤتمر الدولي العلمي السادس لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب
The Use of Markov Chain to reveal the reality of non- oil econ0miv indicators in Iraq
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The research mainly seeks to predict the amounts of non- oil Iraqi exports which concludes ) Food & Animals , Raw materials and non- tanned Leather and fur , Mineral fuels and Lubricating Oil , Chemical substances and amounts , Manufactured goods , Electrical and non - electrical machines , Supplies and Total non- Oil exports ) by using Markov Chain as one of Statistical approach to forecasting in future . In this search We estimate the transliteration probabilities matrix according to Maximum Likelihood on a data collected from central organization for Statistics and information technology represents an index numbers of non- Oil exports amount in Iraq from 2004 to 2015 depending on 2007 as a basic year . Results shown that trend of index

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use Of the Bayesian Method and Restricted Maximum Likelihood in estimating of mixed Linear Components with random effects model with practical application.
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In this research we study a variance component model, Which is the one of the most important models widely used in the analysis of the data, this model is one type of a multilevel models, and it is considered as linear models , there are three types of linear variance component models ,Fixed effect of linear variance component model, Random effect of linear variance component model and Mixed effect of linear variance component model . In this paper we will examine the model of mixed effect of linear variance component model with one –way random effect ,and the mixed model is a mixture of fixed effect and random effect in the same model, where it contains the parameter (μ) and treatment effect (τi ) which  has

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between Process Control Charts and Fuzzy Multinomial Control Charts with Practical Appliance
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     The control charts are one of the scientific technical statistics tools that will be used to control of production and always contained from three lines  central line and upper, lower lines to control quality of production and represents set of numbers so finally the operating productivity under control or nor than depending on the actual observations. Some times to calculating the control charts are not accurate and not confirming, therefore the Fuzzy Control Charts are using instead of Process Control Charts so this method is more sensitive, accurate and economically for assisting decision maker to control the operation system as early time. In this project will be used set data fr

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use aggregate slide estimate additive splines estimation for the diagnosis of non-linear composite model self-regression with practical application
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Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines  estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property  to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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