In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving averageâ€. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.
In this paper, we used maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian method to estimate the shape parameter (θ), and reliability function (R(t)) of the Kumaraswamy distribution with two parameters l , θ (under assuming the exponential distribution, Chi-squared distribution and Erlang-2 type distribution as prior distributions), in addition to that we used method of moments for estimating the parameters of the prior distributions. Bayes
In this study, we report a statistical study for the relationship between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and sunspot number (SSN) that were registered during the period 2008-2017 for the solar cycle 24. SSN was extracted from Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO), while CMEs number from observations made by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission (SOHO). The present period was adopted to conduct the investigation and obtain the mutual correlation between SSN and CMEs. The relationship between CME, the speed of halo CME, and partial halo CMEs for solar cycle 24 were studied. The analysis of results indicated that the average speed of halo CMEs is almost
... Show MoreIn this paper, a robust adaptive sliding mode controller is designed for a mobile platform trajectory tracking. The mobile platform is an example of a nonholonomic mechanical system. The presence of holonomic constraints reduces the number of degree of freedom that represents the system model, while the nonholonomic constraints reduce the differentiable degree of freedom. The mathematical model was derived here for the mobile platform, considering the existence of one holonomic and two nonholonomic constraints imposed on system dynamics. The partial feedback linearization method was used to get the input-output relation, where the output is the error functions between the position of a certain point on the platform
... Show MoreIn this paper, several conditions are put in order to compose the sequence of partial sums , and of the fractional operators of analytic univalent functions , and of bounded turning which are bounded turning too.
The goal of this research is to solve several one-dimensional partial differential equations in linear and nonlinear forms using a powerful approximate analytical approach. Many of these equations are difficult to find the exact solutions due to their governing equations. Therefore, examining and analyzing efficient approximate analytical approaches to treat these problems are required. In this work, the homotopy analysis method (HAM) is proposed. We use convergence control parameters to optimize the approximate solution. This method relay on choosing with complete freedom an auxiliary function linear operator and initial guess to generate the series solution. Moreover, the method gives a convenient way to guarantee the converge
... Show MoreIn this paper, double Sumudu and double Elzaki transforms methods are used to compute the numerical solutions for some types of fractional order partial differential equations with constant coefficients and explaining the efficiently of the method by illustrating some numerical examples that are computed by using Mathcad 15.and graphic in Matlab R2015a.
This research calculated the effect of partial replacement of Trillium with tin by weight ratios x=0, 5, 10, 15, and 20 of the weight of manufactured samples on the thermal conductivity coefficient of Se60Te40-xSnx chalcogenide glasses. The thermal conductivity coefficient of the samples was calculated using a disk- Lee. The results showed that increasing the concentration of tin improves the thermal insulation ability by decreasing the thermal conductivity value and then determining the optimal weight ratios at which a large thermal insulation is obtained.
The electrical resistivity as a function of temperature was studied. The electrical resistivity (rd.c) was calculated as a function of temperature for all
... Show MoreIt is suitable to use precast steel-concrete composite beams to quickly assemble a bridge or a building, particularly in isolated regions where cast-in-situ concrete is not a practical option. If steel-concrete composite beams are designed to allow demountability, they can also be extremely useful in the aftermath of natural disasters, such as earthquakes or flooding, to replace damaged infrastructure. Furthermore, rapid replacement of slabs is extremely beneficial in case of severe deterioration due to long-term stressors such as fatigue or corrosion. The only way to rapidly assemble and disassemble a steel-concrete composite structure is to use demountable shear connectors to connect/disconnect the steel beams to/from the concrete slab. I
... Show MoreLow cost Co-Precipitation method was used for Preparation of novel nickel oxide (NiO) nano particle thin films with Simple, with two different PH values 6, 12 and its effect on structural and optical properties as an active optical filter. Experimental results of structural properties X-ray diffraction (XRD) showed that both Nickel oxide nanoparticles with (PH=6 and 12) have polycrystalline structure smaller average particle size about 8.5 nm for PH=6 in comparison with PH=12. Morphological studies using Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscope (AFM) show uniform nano rod distribution for PH=6 with smaller average diameter, average roughness as compared with NiO with
... Show MoreIn this study, the melting-cooling method was used to prepare the chalcogenide compound S60-Se40-X-PbX. Four samples were obtained by partial replacement of Selenium with Lead in the weight ratios x = 0, 10, 20, and 30, respectively. The materials were mixed separately, ground, placed in quartz ampoules, and heated to 500 degrees Celsius. After conducting several operations on the samples, their insulating properties were studied, represented by the real dielectric constant and the imaginary dielectric constant, and the electrical conductivity was measured as a function of the frequency. It was found that partial replacement plays an impo