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Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models
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    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Nonlinear Anal. Appl.
Time series analysis of the number of covid-19 deaths in Iraq
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Scopus (1)
Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Jan 13 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Producing Coordinate Time Series for Iraq's CORS Site for Detection Geophysical Phenomena
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Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have become an integral part of wide range of applications. One of these applications of GNSS is implementation of the cellular phone to locate the position of users and this technology has been employed in social media applications. Moreover, GNSS have been effectively employed in transportation, GIS, mobile satellite communications, and etc. On the other hand, the geomatics sciences use the GNSS for many practical and scientific applications such as surveying and mapping and monitoring, etc.

In this study, the GNSS raw data of ISER CORS, which is located in the North of Iraq, are processed and analyzed to build up coordinate time series for the purpose of detection the

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Assessment of vegetal cover changes using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and subtractive (NDVI) time-series, Karbala province, Iraq
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Karbala province regarded one part significant zones in Iraq and considered an economic resource of vegetation such as trees of fruits, sieve and other vegetation. This research aimed to utilize Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) and Subtracted (NDVI) for investigating the current vegetation cover at last four decay. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is the most extensively used satellite index of vegetation health and density. The primary goals of this research are gather a gathering of studied area (Karbala province) satellite images in sequence time for a similar region, these image captured by Landsat (TM 1985, TM 1995, ETM+ 2005 and Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) 2015. Preprocessing such gap filli

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Stability testing of time series data for CT Large industrial establishments in Iraq
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Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of ​​cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.

Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Computers & Electrical Engineering
Utilizing different types of deep learning models for classification of series arc in photovoltaics systems
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Crossref (6)
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2011
Journal Name
المؤتمر الدولي الثالث للاحصائيين العرب
Use a form ARX(p,q) to estimate time series for the Iraqi Economy
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Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to

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Publication Date
Wed May 13 2015
Journal Name
Elsevier Procedia Economics And Finance
The Role of FDI Inflows in Economic Growth in Malaysia (Time Series: 1975-2010)
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Recently, Malaysia has been recognized as one of the most popular destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia. But how do these FDI inflows affect Malaysia economy? This paper aims to identify the role of FDI inflows in Malaysia economic growth through a proposed endogenous growth model. Annual data covers from 1975 to 2010. Unit root test and Johansen Co-integration test are adopted to respectively verify the time series data is stable and the linear combination of the variables is stationary. Hierarchical Multiple Regressions (HMR) Analysis is then conducted to find out the momentum of the Malaysia economic growth including FDI inflows. The results show that the FDI inflows together with the human capital deve

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