The aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which proves that the MLH_RK method is the best and closest to the expected values. The results have been discussed after being tabulated and represented graphically. Epidemic behavior for the next two years until 2025 has been projected using the proposed methods.
The present study discusses the significant role of the historical memory in all the Spanish society aspects of life. When a novelist takes the role and puts on the mask of one of the novel’s protagonists or hidden characters, his memory of the events becomes the keywords of accessing the close-knit fabric of society and sheds lights on deteriorating social conceptions in a backwards social reality that rejects all new progressive ideas and modernity. Through concentrating on the society flawing aspects and employing everything of his stored memory, the author uses sarcasm to criticize and change such old deteriorating reality conceptions.
&nbs
... Show MoreIn this paper, the propose is to use the xtreme value distribution as the rate of occurrence of the non-homogenous Poisson process, in order to improve the rate of occurrence of the non-homogenous process, which has been called the Extreme value Process. To estimate the parameters of this process, it is proposed to use the Maximum Likelihood method, Method of Moment and a smart method represented by the Artificial Bee Colony:(ABC) algorithm to reach an estimator for this process which represents the best data representation. The results of the three methods are compared through a simulation of the model, and it is concluded that the estimator of (ABC) is better than the estimator of the maximum likelihood method and method of mo
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to examine the discharge capacity of the reach of the Tigris River between Kut and Amarah Barrages of 250km in length. The examination includes simulation the current capacity of the reach by using HEC-RAS model. 247cross sections surveyed in 2012 were used in the simulation. The model was calibrated using observed discharges of 533, 800, 1025 and 3000m3/s discharged at Kut Barrage during 2013, 1995, 1995 and 1988, respectively, and its related water level at three gauge stations located along the reach. The result of calibration process indicated that the lowest Root Mean Square Error of 0.095 can be obtained when using Manning’s n coefficient of 0.026, 0.03 for th
... Show MoreThe current study aimed to determine the relation between the lead levels in the blood traffic men and the nature of their traffic work in Baghdad governorate. Blood samples were collected from 10 traffic men and the age about from 20-39 year from Directorate of Traffic Al Rusafa/ Baghdad and 10 samples another control from traffic men too with age 30-49 year and they livedrelatively in the clear cities or contained of Very few traffic areas. The levels of lead in blood estimated by used Atomic Absorption Spectrometry.
The result stated that there is no rising of the levels of lead in blood of traffic men Lead concentration was with more a range from 14 ppm in Traffic police are not healthy They are within the permissible limits, Ap
The main aim of this research paper is investigating the effectiveness and validity of Meso-Scale Approach (MSA) as a modern technique for the modeling of plain concrete beams. Simply supported plain concrete beam was subjected to two-point loading to detect the response in flexural. Experimentally, a concrete mix was designed and prepared to produce three similar standard concrete prisms for flexural testing. The coarse aggregate used in this mix was crushed aggregate. Numerical Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was conducted on the same concrete beam using the meso-scale modeling. The numerical model was constructed to be a bi-phasic material consisting of cement mortar and coarse aggregate. The interface between the two c
... Show MoreMetaphor has been occupied first place among eloquent methods to build metaphors;
poetry with the latter becomes senseless thing. Metaphor is necessary part of energy that
sustains the poetry. Sentence of metaphor regarded more eloquent than the reality since it
does not conduct directly to the meaning , but rather get to it indirectly. Metaphor is
considered one of the most tools for the poet since it is a means of expression about his
sensation and feelings . Andalus paid concerns over metaphors as that being incited by their
country beauty and nature. The poet might resort to contradiction as to picture contraries
within himself.
Through pictures of contradictions depicted by the poets , it has explained that t
Manganese is considered as one of heavy metals with high toxicity .This element has been used widely in various industries and it is spread with huge quantities in polluted industries areas. As a result the concentrations of this element in the environment have increased and consequently producing acute toxic effects in different tissues and organs of all organisms. A study has been conducted on (30) female of Swiss albino mice, to find out the effect of manganese chloride in histopathological changes of ovaries. The study includes, giving the manganese chloride with concentrations (150, 200 and 250 mg/kg) for (15, 30 and 45 day) for each concentration. The
... Show MoreThis study aims to assess some seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in chronic renal failure (CRF) patients undergoing hemodialysis in dialysis centers in some Baghdad hospitals, by testing the blood samples with enzyme linked Immunosorbant assay (ELISA) IgG and IgM, to determine the incidence of toxoplasmosis in hemodialysis patients. Hemodialysis patients infected with Toxoplasma. gondii were appeared with 129(32.25%) seropositive anti-Toxoplasma IgG. The age groups (43-51) year and (52-60) years of hemodialysis patients showed the highest percentage of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. An increase of the seropositivity rate was detected with increasing length of time on hemodialysis treatment. Females had the highest significant percentag
... Show MoreThe pathogenicity of S. saprophyticus was studied in mice. A group of white mice were injected transurethrally using a catheter with S. saprophyticus S67 cell suspension in a concentration reached 109 CFU/ml. concomitantly, the role of its peptidoglycan in the pathogenicity was studied by injecting another group of mice with 0.3 mg/0.2 ml of partially purified S. saprophyticus S67 peptidoglycan extract. After autopsy, kidneys and urinary bladder showed several histopathological changes both in cells and peptidoglycan injected mice, included: hydropic degeneration, glomerulus shrinkage, congestion of renal vessels, infiltration of inflammatory cells, and dekeratinization in urinary bladder.