In this paper, the propose is to use the xtreme value distribution as the rate of occurrence of the non-homogenous Poisson process, in order to improve the rate of occurrence of the non-homogenous process, which has been called the Extreme value Process. To estimate the parameters of this process, it is proposed to use the Maximum Likelihood method, Method of Moment and a smart method represented by the Artificial Bee Colony:(ABC) algorithm to reach an estimator for this process which represents the best data representation. The results of the three methods are compared through a simulation of the model, and it is concluded that the estimator of (ABC) is better than the estimator of the maximum likelihood method and method of moment in estimating the time rate of occurrence of the proposed Extreme value process. The research also includes a realistic application that deals with the operating periods of two successive stops for the raw materials factory from the General Company for Northern Cement / Badush Cement Factories (new) during the period from 1/4/2018 to 31/1/2019, in order to reach the time rate of factory stops.
In this study, different methods were used for estimating location parameter and scale parameter for extreme value distribution, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) , method of moment estimation (ME),and approximation estimators based on percentiles which is called white method in estimation, as the extreme value distribution is one of exponential distributions. Least squares estimation (OLS) was used, weighted least squares estimation (WLS), ridge regression estimation (Rig), and adjusted ridge regression estimation (ARig) were used. Two parameters for expected value to the percentile as estimation for distribution f
... Show MoreOver the years, the prediction of penetration rate (ROP) has played a key rule for drilling engineers due it is effect on the optimization of various parameters that related to substantial cost saving. Many researchers have continually worked to optimize penetration rate. A major issue with most published studies is that there is no simple model currently available to guarantee the ROP prediction.
The main objective of this study is to further improve ROP prediction using two predictive methods, multiple regression analysis (MRA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). A field case in SE Iraq was conducted to predict the ROP from a large number of parame
Our goal from this work is to find the linear prediction of the sum of two Poisson process
) ( ) ( ) ( t Y t X t Z + = at the future time 0 ), ( ≥ + τ τ t Z and that is when we know the values of
) (t Z in the past time and the correlation function ) (τ βz
A mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the
... Show MoreA mixture model is used to model data that come from more than one component. In recent years, it became an effective tool in drawing inferences about the complex data that we might come across in real life. Moreover, it can represent a tremendous confirmatory tool in classification observations based on similarities amongst them. In this paper, several mixture regression-based methods were conducted under the assumption that the data come from a finite number of components. A comparison of these methods has been made according to their results in estimating component parameters. Also, observation membership has been inferred and assessed for these methods. The results showed that the flexible mixture model outperformed the others
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da
... Show MoreIn this paper was discussed the process of compounding two distributions using new compounding procedure which is connect a number of life time distributions ( continuous distribution ) where is the number of these distributions represent random variable distributed according to one of the discrete random distributions . Based on this procedure have been compounding zero – truncated poisson distribution with weibell distribution to produce new life time distribution having three parameter , Advantage of that failure rate function having many cases ( increasing , dicreasing , unimodal , bathtube) , and study the resulting distribution properties such as : expectation , variance , comulative function , reliability function and fa
... Show MoreIntended for getting good estimates with more accurate results, we must choose the appropriate method of estimation. Most of the equations in classical methods are linear equations and finding analytical solutions to such equations is very difficult. Some estimators are inefficient because of problems in solving these equations. In this paper, we will estimate the survival function of censored data by using one of the most important artificial intelligence algorithms that is called the genetic algorithm to get optimal estimates for parameters Weibull distribution with two parameters. This leads to optimal estimates of the survival function. The genetic algorithm is employed in the method of moment, the least squares method and the weighted
... Show More