The aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which proves that the MLH_RK method is the best and closest to the expected values. The results have been discussed after being tabulated and represented graphically. Epidemic behavior for the next two years until 2025 has been projected using the proposed methods.
The purpose of this study is to measure the levels of quality control for some crude oil products in Iraqi refineries, and how they are close to the international standards, through the application of statistical methods in quality control of oil products in Iraqi refineries. Where the answers of the study sample were applied to a group of Iraqi refinery employees (Al-Dora refinery, Al-Nasiriyah refinery, and Al-Basra refinery) on the principles of quality management control, and according to the different personal characteristics (gender, age, academic qualification, number of years of experience, job level). In order to achieve the objectives of the study, a questionnaire that included (12) items, in order to collect preliminary inform
... Show MoreAquatic macrophyte communities and environmental factors were studied at four Al-Hawizeh marsh sites from December 2017 until November 2018. Quantitative data from thirty species of aquatic plants were collected to investigate density, vegetation cover, biomass and their relationship to the environmental factors. For emerging plants, relative abundance reached the highest values (36%) than submerged and wet species, while free-floating plants produced the lowest value (17%).Physical and chemical properties have been studied including water temperature ranging from 11.3 ° C in January to 31.4 ° C in August, dissolved oxygen (DO)ranging from 1.88 mg/L in September to 10.5 mg / L in Ap
Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other
... Show MoreThe experiences in the life are considered important for many fields, such as industry, medical and others. In literature, researchers are focused on flexible lifetime distribution.
In this paper, some Bayesian estimators for the unknown scale parameter of Inverse Rayleigh Distribution have been obtained, of different two loss functions, represented by Suggested and Generalized loss function based on Non-Informative prior using Jeffery's and informative prior represented by Exponential distribution. The performance of estimators is compared empirically with Maximum Likelihood estimator, Using Monte Carlo Simulation depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE). Generally, the preference of Bayesian method of Suggeste
... Show MoreThis study included the extraction properties of spatial and morphological basins studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model linked to (GIS) to find the amount of sediment and rates of flow that flows into the Haditha reservoir . The aim of this study is determine the amount of sediment coming from the valleys and flowing into the Haditha Dam reservoir for 25 years ago for the period (1985-2010) and its impact on design lifetime of the Haditha Dam reservoir and to determine the best ways to reduce the sediment transport. The result indicated that total amount of sediment coming from all valleys about (2.56 * 106 ton). The maximum annual total sediment load was about (488.22 * 103 ton) in year 1988
... Show MoreIt is necessary to use the means of recovery and other means that help to get rid of the effects of fatigue, as the game of badminton and the effectiveness of running 800 meters fall within the mixed system with the superiority of the anaerobic system by more than the air system, so requires the development of energy systems In proportion to the time of the match for badminton players and their travels and high performance and ability to tolerate the high level of lactic acid in the muscles and blood and increase the pain associated with the fatigue that occurs during the performance. In light of the physical and physiological processes of these actions N it should seek through training programs to develop your endurance and wind energy sys
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This investigation showed (31) species belonging to (15) genera under (five) families and two orders. The leafminers Dipter families (Agromozidae, Anthomyiidae, Drosophilidae), Agromyzid flies is the highest level of investigated many host plants, but other families have lowest host plants. The synonyms of species were provided from GBIF scarlet's. The date and localities of sampling collection were recorded.
Um-Al-Naaj region in Al-Hawiezah Marsh, Southern Iraq was chosen to study the environmental variations of some water characteristics during 2008, seasonally. The results showed clear seasonal changes in values of some environmental variables (temperature, depth, light penetration, turbidity, total suspended solids, pH, dissolved oxygen, reactive phosphate, reactive nitrite, and reactive nitrate), while there were no clear seasonal changes in electrical conductivity and salinity values. In addition, high nutrients concentrations and light penetration were noted. Statistical analysis showed significant positive relationship between air and water temperature; electrical conductivity and salinity. Water turbidity was significantly affecte
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