There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Time-domain spectral matching commonly used to define seismic inputs to dynamic analysis in terms of acceleration time history compatible with a specific target response spectrum is used in this study to investigate the second-order geometric effect of P-delta on the seismic response of base-isolated high-rise buildings. A synthetic time series is generated by adjusting reference time series that consist of available readings from a past earthquake of the 1940 El Centro earthquake adopted as an initial time series. The superstructure of a 20-story base isolated building is represented by a 3-D finite element model using ETABS software. The results of the base isolated building show that base isolation technique significantly reduces inter-s
... Show MoreExperiments were conducted to study the behavior of the solid particles (proppant) inside the hydraulic fracture during the formation stimulation, and study the effect of the proppant concentration on the hydraulic fracturing process, which lead to bridge and screen-out conditions inside the fractures across the fracture width that restricts fracturing fluid to flow into the hydraulic fracture. The research also studies the effect of the ratio between the fracture size and the average particles diameter “proppant", on fracture bridging. In this study two ratios were considered β= 2 and 3 ,where β=Dt / Dp where: Dt= hydraulic fracture size (width) and Dp=Average particles diameter.
This work pr
... Show MoreThe reduction of vibration properties for composite material (woven roving E-glass fiber plies in thermosetting polyester matrix) is investigated at the prediction time under varied combined temperatures (60 to -15) using three types of boundary conditions like (CFCF, CCCF, and CFCC). The vibration properties are the amplitude, natural frequency, dynamic elastic moduli (young modulus in x, y directions and shear modulus in 1, 2 plane) and damping factor. The natural frequency of a system is a function of its elastic properties, dimensions, and mass. The woven roving glass fiber has been especially engineered for polymer reinforcement; but the unsaturated thermosetting polyester is widely used, offering a good balance of vibration p
... Show MoreThis study is qualitative, it illustrates H.G. Wells\\'s The Time Machine through the scientific and social framework of the Victorian Era. Wells\\'s portrayal of future societies examines the rapid technological progress and social changes of the 19th century. The analysis scrutinizes the division between the Eloi and the Morlocks, tracing the consequences of social division. To meet the objective of the study, Victorian frame of mind is utilized to examine the class struggle that is symbolized by the Eloi and the Morlocks. The analysis highlights the economic and social effects of industrialization and how Wells examines the capitalist system and its impact on human relationships and class division. The study also utilizes concepts from D
... Show MoreBackground: Salivary biomarkers, a non-invasive alternative method to serum and tissue based biomarkers and it is consider as an effective modality for early diagnosis. Salivary microRNA 21, a nucleotide biomarker, was reported to increase in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. This study was conducted to measure the fold change of microRNA 21 in stimulated saliva and to study its association with smoking and occurrence of oral squamous cell carcinoma. Materials and methods: A 20 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma who used to be smokers was included in addition to 40 control subjects (20 smokers and 20 non- smokers health looking subjects). Stimulated saliva was collected under standardized condition. Salivary microRNA 21 wa
... Show MoreThe wave functions of the coherent states of the charged oscillator in magnetic field are obtained via a canonical transformation. The numerical calculations of these functions are made and then the space and time plots are obtained. It was shown that these states are Gaussians distributions of widths vary periodically in an opposite way with their peaks. We interpret that is due to the mutual actions of the spreading effect of the wave packet and the reaction of the magnetic field.
Eleven hymenopterous species: two braconids, seven eulophids and two pteromalids
parasitized the larvae of Phytomyza horticola Goureau. The activity of the parasites began at
the end of April and evidently increased during May. The female of the parasites fed and
parasitized mostly on the second and third larval instars of P. horticola . Diglyphus iseae
Walker and Cirrospilus vittatus Walker were dominant larval parasites. Chrysocharis
pentheus Walker and Pediobius acantha Walker were main pupal parasites.
In the past years, the Algerian Economy has witnessed various monetary developments characterized by different monetary and banking reforms aimed by monetary authorities to achieve monetary stability and driving overall growth. It should be noted that there is evidence to initiate fundamental changes on the basis of which new monetary, financing and banking policy mechanisms must be formulated in Algeria by enhancing the pursuit of reforming the monetary system, in order to improve monetary and economic indicators.
The study a
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