There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The marketing logistic chain, as an integrated system aimed to balance the achievement of its main opposite objectives which represented in the access to the best service presented to the customer with lowest possible logistic costs especially the transportation costs, where encourages the researcher to choose the second objective as a field of this study in order to reduce the transportation costs in the final link of marketing logistic chain which related to delivering of fuel oil to the customer that falls within organizational responsibilities of the company under consideration (Oil Marketing Company) and also known in a brief name by (SOMO) through two methods, the first is by functioning quantative techniques by using trans
... Show MoreThe city has normal natural state, and the man has a usual movement, change and search for the new .Also, the city has a usual change and transform in its time, place and quality (sizes)structures. The city has a solid memory diving into the past and the future and reflects The real present, and this memory has a timing layers change into real materialistic place making the city has accumulated overlapping circles which is hard to break u , and it broadcasts the lockup timing density ,in which there is no visual record precisely, it is just like((the social record)) that evaluates the un visual relationships between the components and parts of the city (community and form) in a visual quiet exhibition and transform change inside.
... Show MoreThe present research has investigated the effect of microwave energy on improving the flow properties of heavy crude oil. The fragmentation of crude oil molecules was carried out with and without using 1 and 10 wt. % concentration of various types of H-donors like tetralin, cyclohexane, and naphtha. Microwave power of 320, 385, and 540 W and radiation time 1-9 min, and temperature were studied. The kinematic viscosity and asphaltene content were measured for evaluation the improving of heavy crude oil.
Results show that viscosity of crude oil decreased with increase H-donor concentration, a maximum percentage of viscosity reduction was10.63 % for tetralin at 6 min radiation time, while 8.67%, and 7.34% for cycl
... Show MoreThe global oil market is one of the most important markets in the world and occupies especially for countries consuming and producing countries, and the status of understanding of the mechanism for determining prices in the market help to stand on many factors affecting oil demand and supply of oil and geopolitical factors, climate and alternative sources of energy .. etc. factors, and that the main objective of the research is to study the causes and results left behind by the oil price shocks in the world market, and the movement of these factors be through a cycle of energy that explain the strength of competition between these factors and their effects on prices, when demand increases evolution Large image leads to significan
... Show More A total of 1453 freshwater fishes, belonging to 14 species of the
family Cyprinidae was collected from Lesser Zab and Greater Zab
rivers in north of Iraq during the period from November 2000 to the
end of November 2001. The inspection of skin, gills and different
internal organs revealed the infection of these fishes with a total of 14
species of Myxobolus which included seven species that represented
their first record in Iraq. These species included M. bulbocordis from
both Barbus sharpeyi and Chondrostoma regium; M. karuni from B
grypus; M. mesopotamiae from B. luteus; M. molnári from B
esocinus; M. pcrsicus from both B. grypus and Cyprinion macrostomum;
M. Shaagani from both B. b
This work deals with thermal cracking of heavy vacuum gas oil which produced from the top of vacuum distillation unit at Al- DURA refinery, by continuous process. An experimental laboratory plant scale was constructed in laboratories of chemical engineering department, Al-Nahrain University and Baghdad University. The thermal cracking process was carried out at temperature ranges between 460-560oC and atmospheric pressure with liquid hourly space velocity (LHSV) equal to 15hr-1.The liquid product from thermal cracking unit was distilled by atmospheric distillation device according to ASTM D-86 in order to achieve two fractions, below 220oC as a gasoline fraction and above 220oC as light cycle o
... Show MoreThis work studied the facilitation of the transportation of Sharqi Baghdad heavy crude oil characterized with high viscosity 51.6 cSt at 40 °C, low API 18.8, and high asphaltenes content 7.1 wt.%, by reducing its viscosity from break down asphaltene agglomerates using different types of hydrocarbon and oxygenated polar solvents such as toluene, methanol, mix xylenes, and reformate. The best results are obtained by using methanol because it owns a high efficiency to reduce viscosity of crude oil to 21.1 cSt at 40 °C. Toluene, xylenes and reformate decreased viscosity to 25.3, 27.5 and 28,4 cSt at 40 °C, respectively. Asphaltenes content decreased to 4.2 wt. % by using toluene at 110 °C. And best improvement in API of the heavy crude o
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to investigate the effect of operating variables on, the percentage of removed sludge (PSR) obtained during re-refining of 15W-40 Al-Durra spent lubricant by solvent extraction-flocculation treatment method. Binary solvents were used such as, Heavy Naphtha (H.N.): MEK (N:MEK), H.N. : n-Butanol (N:n-But), and H.N. : Iso-Butanol (N:Iso:But). The studied variables were mixing speed (300-900, rpm), mixing time (15-60, min), and operating temperature (2540, oC). This study showed that the studied operating variables have effects where, increasing the mixing time up to 45 min for H.N.: MEK, H.N.: n-Butanol and 30 min for H.N.: Iso-Butanol increased the PSR, after that percentage was decreased; increasing t
... Show MoreIn this work, we are Study the effect of annealing temperature on the structure of a-Ge films doped with Sb and the electrical properties of a-Ge:Sb/c-Si heterojunction fabricated by deposition of a-Ge:Sb film on c-Si by using thermal evaporation. Electrical properties of aGe:Sb/c-Si heterojunction include I-V characteristics in dark at different annealing temperatures and C-V characteristics and with the C-V characteristics suggest that the fabricated heterojunction was abrupt type, built in potential determined by extrapolation from 1/C2-V curve and show that the built - inpotential (Vbi) for the Ge:Sb/Si system increases with the increase of annealing temperatures
The idea of using slender Reinforced Concrete (RC) columns with cross-shaped (+-shaped) instead of columns with square-shaped was discussed in this paper. The use of +-shaped columns provides many architectural and structural advantages, such as avoiding prominent columns edges and improved the structural response of member. Therefore, this study explores the structural response of slender +-shaped columns experimentally and numerically by nonlinear finite element analysis using Abaqus simulation tools. The results showed an excellent convergence in strength between numerical and test results with an average standard deviation of 0.05 and 0.07. Besides that, the use of +-shaped column