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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 11 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Research And Studies
Non-Productive Time Reduction during Oil Wells Drilling Operations
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Often there is no well drilling without problems. The solution lies in managing and evaluating these problems and developing strategies to manage and scale them. Non-productive time (NPT) is one of the main causes of delayed drilling operations. Many events or possibilities can lead to a halt in drilling operations or a marginal decrease in the advancement of drilling, this is called (NPT). Reducing NPT has an important impact on the total expenditure, time and cost are considered one of the most important success factors in the oil industry. In other words, steps must be taken to investigate and eliminate loss of time, that is, unproductive time in the drilling rig in order to save time and cost and reduce wasted time. The data of

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Effect of the Synthesis Time on Structural Properties of Copper Oxide
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The structural properties of the CuO nanopowder oxide prepared reflux technique
without any templates or surfactant, using copper nitrate hydrate (Cu(NO)3 3H2O) in deionized
water with aqueous ammonia solution are reported. The Xrd analysis data and processing in origin
pro program used to get FWHM and integral width to study the effect of different synthesis times
was studied on the structural properties. It was found that values of crystal sizes are 17.274nm,
17.746nm, and 18.560nm, the size of nanoparticles is determined by Halder-Wagner, and 15.796
nm, 15.851nm, and 16.52nm, were calculated by Size-Strain Plot (SSP) method. The Sample was
considered to determine physical and microstructural paramete

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Estimation for Two Parameters of Weibull Distribution under Generalized Weighted Loss Function
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In this paper, Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution have been obtained using the generalized weighted loss function, based on Exponential priors. Lindley’s approximation has been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on theMonte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s).

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Solid State Technology
Forecasting Crop Coefficient Values for Cucumber Plant (Cucumis sativus)
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In this study predication of crop coefficient (Kc) values through growing season for cucumber plant was conducted. A field experiment was carried out at AL Yusufiyah Township, in the Governorate of Baghdad, (latitude: 33°09' N, longitude: 44°24' E, and altitude: 34 m) in medium loam soil. The plant was cultivated inside the greenhouse under subsurface trickle irrigation system with soil water retention technology (SWRT) during the growing season 2017. Crop coefficient values were guessed from the direct method of measurements of daily crop evapotranspiration, while reference evapotranspiration was obtained from Agricultural Meteorology Project - Station of Baghdad - Abu-Ghraib.  The obtained results were showed that crop coeffici

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
comparison between the methods estimate nonparametric and semiparametric transfer function model in time series the Using simulation
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 The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Bayesian Inference for Reliability Function of Gompertz Distribution
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Abstract<p>In this paper, some Bayes estimators of the reliability function of Gompertz distribution have been derived based on generalized weighted loss function. In order to get a best understanding of the behaviour of Bayesian estimators, a non-informative prior as well as an informative prior represented by exponential distribution is considered. Monte-Carlo simulation have been employed to compare the performance of different estimates for the reliability function of Gompertz distribution based on Integrated mean squared errors. It was found that Bayes estimators with exponential prior information under the generalized weighted loss function were generally better than the estimators based o</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
Tribology International
Discriminating gasoline fuel contamination in engine oil by terahertz time-domain spectroscopy
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Planning the Production of the Electrical Distribution Converter (400KV/11) Using Time Series Methods and Goal Programming in the Fuzzy Environment
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This Paper aims to plan the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) for one month at Diyala Public Company and with more than one goal for the decision-maker in a fuzzy environment. The fuzzy demand was forecasting using the fuzzy time series model. The fuzzy lead time for raw materials involved in the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) was addressed using the fuzzy inference matrix through the application of the matrix in Matlab, and since the decision-maker has more than one goal, so a mathematical model of goal programming was create, which aims to achieve two goals, the first is to reduce the total production costs of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) and th

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 11 2011
Journal Name
Icgst
Employing Neural Network and Naive Bayesian Classifier in Mining Data for Car Evaluation
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In data mining, classification is a form of data analysis that can be used to extract models describing important data classes. Two of the well known algorithms used in data mining classification are Backpropagation Neural Network (BNN) and Naïve Bayesian (NB). This paper investigates the performance of these two classification methods using the Car Evaluation dataset. Two models were built for both algorithms and the results were compared. Our experimental results indicated that the BNN classifier yield higher accuracy as compared to the NB classifier but it is less efficient because it is time-consuming and difficult to analyze due to its black-box implementation.

Publication Date
Fri Oct 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimation and Forecasting of Evaporation Losses for Lake Mosul Dam
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Evaporation from water bodies is important and considered a major problem in dry and semi-dry regions, in this research the evaporation has been analyzed from two approaches: engineeringly and statistically. The engineering approach deals with the calculation of evaporation rates of Mosul Dam Lake. Three methods were used: pan evaporation class A, the combined and the mass-transfer. It was found that the values ​​obtained by pan evaporation class A method was the highest among the other, while the mass transfer method achieved the lowest results. The evaporation rates during the year ranged according to the first method (0.9–5.5) mm/day, second (0.7–11.5) mm/day and the last method (1.0039×106) m3/year, whi

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