There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
In many industries especially oil companies in Iraq consumed large quantities of water which will produce oil-contaminated water which can cause major pollution in agricultural lands and rivers. The aim of the present work is to enhance the efficiency of dispersed air flotation technique by using highly effective and cost-efficient coagulant to treating gas oil emulsion. The experimental work was carried out using bubble column made of Perspex glass (5cm I.D, 120cm height). A liquid was at depth of 60cm. Different dosage of sawdust +bentonite at ratio 2:1 (0.5+ 0.25; 1+ 0.5 and 2+1) gm and alum at concentration (10,20and30mg/l) at different pH ( 4 and 7) were used to determine optimum dosages of coagulant. Jar test exper
... Show MoreTime affects all elements of the intellectual scene or the theatrical scene. It came along with the theatrical doctrines according to the conditions of those doctrines and their conceptual ideas or the method of their mechanisms in the application. While it is classically or realistically integrated, we see it in the expressionist doctrine inconsistent and its inconsistency makes it responsive for the deconstruction strategy. Hence the researcher entitled his study (deconstruction the theatrical time in the expressionist doctrine) so that deconstruction would be a field for his study. The study starts with an introduction presenting the research problem, importance and objective. The theoretical framework consisted of three s
... Show MoreDespite all the possibilities held by Iraq for the production of poultry , but there is low and clear in the level of production and a rise in costs and a decline in per capita consumption is due to a number of reasons, including poor investment , stop government subsides , dumping policies , market Bolmottagat imported , the contribution of the merchant squandering of national capacity , weak base material for the growth of this sector , the security situation and the crisis of energy and others .
Despite all this research has shown that there are great investment opportunities in this very sector of the market size and absorptive capacity of his and the growth of per capita income and level of cul
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This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
... Show MorePermeability estimation is a vital step in reservoir engineering due to its effect on reservoir's characterization, planning for perforations, and economic efficiency of the reservoirs. The core and well-logging data are the main sources of permeability measuring and calculating respectively. There are multiple methods to predict permeability such as classic, empirical, and geostatistical methods. In this research, two statistical approaches have been applied and compared for permeability prediction: Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest, given the (M) reservoir interval in the (BH) Oil Field in the northern part of Iraq. The dataset was separated into two subsets: Training and Testing in order to cross-validate the accuracy
... Show MoreSpatial data analysis is performed in order to remove the skewness, a measure of the asymmetry of the probablitiy distribution. It also improve the normality, a key concept of statistics from the concept of normal distribution “bell shape”, of the properties like improving the normality porosity, permeability and saturation which can be are visualized by using histograms. Three steps of spatial analysis are involved here; exploratory data analysis, variogram analysis and finally distributing the properties by using geostatistical algorithms for the properties. Mishrif Formation (unit MB1) in Nasiriya Oil Field was chosen to analyze and model the data for the first eight wells. The field is an anticline structure with northwest- south
... Show MoreDialogue is one of the pillars of character building in the television series, through which it is possible to identify the most important characteristics and traits of the personality, in addition to its ability to reveal the most important problems at all levels. The following: (How does dialogue contribute to enhancing the traits of the alienated personality?). It therefore aims to identify the effectiveness of the dramatic dialogue in enhancing the traits of the alienated personality represented by (powerlessness, isolation, meaninglessness, objectification, non-standardization and rebellion). (The traits of the alienated character, and the second is the psychological function of the dramatic dialogue), to extract from them the main
... Show MoreA series of overbased magnesium fatty acids such as caprylate, caprate, laurate, myristate, palmitate, stearate and oleate) were synthesized by the reaction of the fatty acids with active – 60 magnesium oxide and carbon dioxide (CO2) gas at 60 oC in the presence of ammonia solution as catalyst, toluene / ethanol solvent mixture (9:1vol/vol) was added.
The prepared detergent additives were characterized by FTIR, 1HNMR and evaluated by blending each additive in various concentrations with medium lubricant oil fraction (60 stock) supplied by Iraqi Midland Refineries Company. The total base number (TBN, mg of KOH/g) was determined, and the results of TBN were treated by using two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. It was found that
The aesthetic expression and its orders are important for steel structures forming. Steel structures are a compilation of structural elements, where its shapes have standard dimensions and pre-fabricated. As the steel construction systems not only aim to achieve the functional requirements for users, but must also have the symbolic aesthetics which provides visually and cognitive expression for viewers. In this sense the research interested in expressional aesthetics in these systems and highlights the importance of attention as structural items. Therefore the visual items which related with steel structures contain some of the most powerful forms of modern architecture, steel structures with a glass cladding, agility an
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