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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 27 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of University Of Babylon
Reduce the required time for measuring the permeability of clayey soils by using new manufactured cell
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Reduce the required time for measuring the permeability of clayey soils by using new manufactured cell

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Isa Transactions
Design of a Complex fractional Order PID controller for a First Order Plus Time Delay system
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Second International Conference On Innovations In Software Architecture And Computational Systems (isacs 2022)
Structural flexibility and its impact on contemporary architecture
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. The concepts of structural flexibility became one of the important goals in the design phases to reach high performance in architecture. The pioneering projects and ideas that linked architecture with technologies and scientific innovations appeared, with the aim of reaching projects that mix the concepts of flexibility with the development of machine thought and modern technology to meet the functional, environmental, and aesthetic requirements for human wellbeing. The aim of this paper is to identify the mechanisms used in order to reach flexible structural systems capable of accommodating technological changes and developments. The research hypothesizes that the structural design according to the concepts of flexibility achieves high s

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
On Bayesian Estimation of System Reliability in Stress – Strength Model Based on Generalized Inverse Rayleigh Distribution
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Abstract<p>The parameter and system reliability in stress-strength model are estimated in this paper when the system contains several parallel components that have strengths subjects to common stress in case when the stress and strengths follow Generalized Inverse Rayleigh distribution by using different Bayesian estimation methods. Monte Carlo simulation introduced to compare among the proposal methods based on the Mean squared Error criteria.</p>
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The use of laurylamine hydrocholoride CH3(CH2)11 NH3 –Cl for secondary oil recovery
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Laurylamine hydrochloride CH3(CH2)11 NH3 – Cl has been chosen from cationic surfactants to produce secondary oil using lab. model shown in fig. (1). The relationship between interfacial tension and (temperature, salinity and solution concentration) have been studied as shown in fig. (2, 3, 4) respectively. The optimum values of these three variables are taken (those values that give the lowest interfacial tension). Saturation, permeability and porosity are measured in the lab. The primary oil recovery was displaced by water injection until no more oil can be obtained, then laurylamine chloride is injected as a secondary oil recovery. The total oil recovery is 96.6% or 88.8% of the residual oil has been recovered by this technique as shown

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 29 2020
Journal Name
Complexity
Training and Testing Data Division Influence on Hybrid Machine Learning Model Process: Application of River Flow Forecasting
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The hydrological process has a dynamic nature characterised by randomness and complex phenomena. The application of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting river flow has grown rapidly. This is owing to their capacity to simulate the complex phenomena associated with hydrological and environmental processes. Four different ML models were developed for river flow forecasting located in semiarid region, Iraq. The effectiveness of data division influence on the ML models process was investigated. Three data division modeling scenarios were inspected including 70%–30%, 80%–20, and 90%–10%. Several statistical indicators are computed to verify the performance of the models. The results revealed the potential of the hybridized s

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Big Data applications in forecasting corporate bankruptcy: Field analysis in the Saudi Business Environment
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This study aimed to investigate the role of Big Data in forecasting corporate bankruptcy and that is through a field analysis in the Saudi business environment, to test that relationship. The study found: that Big Data is a recently used variable in the business context and has multiple accounting effects and benefits. Among the benefits is forecasting and disclosing corporate financial failures and bankruptcies, which is based on three main elements for reporting and disclosing that, these elements are the firms’ internal control system, the external auditing, and financial analysts' forecasts. The study recommends: Since the greatest risk of Big Data is the slow adaptation of accountants and auditors to these technologies, wh

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Research And Studies
Modeling of Oil Viscosity for Southern Iraqi Reservoirs using Neural Network Method
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The calculation of the oil density is more complex due to a wide range of pressuresand temperatures, which are always determined by specific conditions, pressure andtemperature. Therefore, the calculations that depend on oil components are moreaccurate and easier in finding such kind of requirements. The analyses of twenty liveoil samples are utilized. The three parameters Peng Robinson equation of state istuned to get match between measured and calculated oil viscosity. The Lohrenz-Bray-Clark (LBC) viscosity calculation technique is adopted to calculate the viscosity of oilfrom the given composition, pressure and temperature for 20 samples. The tunedequation of state is used to generate oil viscosity values for a range of temperatu

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