There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The road transportation system is considered as major component of the infrastructure in any country, it affects the developments in economy and social activities. The Asphalt Concrete which is considered as the major pavement material for the road transportation system in Baghdad is subjected to continuous deterioration with time due to traffic loading and environmental conditions, it was felt that implementing a comprehensive pavement maintenance management system (PMMS), which should be capable for preserving the functional and structural conditions of pavement layers, is essential. This work presents the development of PMMS with Visual inspection technique for evaluating the Asphalt Concrete pavement surface condition; common types o
... Show MoreThe purpose of this project is to build a scientific base and computational programs in an accelerator design work. The transfer of group of laws in alinear accelerator cavity to computer codes written in Fortran power station language is inorder to get a numerical calculation of an electromagnetic field generated in the cavities of the linear accelerator. The program in put contains mainly the following, the geometrical cavity constant, and the triangular finite element method high – order polynomial. The out put contains vertical and horizontal components of the electrical field together with the electrical and the magnetic field intensity.
Linguistic research according to modern curricula:
It is one of the important matters that occupy the ideas of those concerned with linguistic studies, whether Arabic or otherwise. Recent years have witnessed the advancement of this methodological approach, and books and studies in Arabic have been written on important, multifaceted issues, of grammatical and linguistic origins, and their balance with new developments and ideas attracted mostly from Western studies.
The comparative approach - as they call it - is one of the modern approaches that is based on balancing a language with other sisters belonging to its family, to reach similarities and differences between them, and to know the c
Naproxen is non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug, which has antipyretic and anti-inflammatory effect. It is extensively bound to plasma albumin, and exhibits gastric toxicity, so it may be more efficient to deliver the drug in its sustained release dosage form and adequate blood level is achieved. Three liquid formulations with in situ gelling properties have been assessed for their potential for the oral sustained delivery of naproxen . The formulations were dilute solutions of: (a) pectin; (b) gellan gum and; (c) sodium alginate, all containing complexed calcium ion that form gels when these ions are released in the acidic environment of the stomach . The viscosity of the sols and drug release were measured, and was found to be depende
... Show MoreThis paper applies the Modified Adomian Decomposition Method (MADM) for solving Integro-Differential Inequality, this method is one of effective to construct analytic approximate solutions for linear and nonlinear integro-differential inequalities without solving many integrals and transformed or discretization. Several examples are presented, the analytic results show that this method is a promising and powerful for solving these problems.
This research aims to address the most recent international standard in the field of insurance contracts, the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS17) and the theoretical framework of the standard in addition to the most important characteristics of the standard (IFRS17), as well as to identify the paragraphs of the modern standard, with the challenges its application in general and the use of the approach (inputs - operations - outputs) to present the challenges of its application in the Iraqi environment and specifically in the environment of Iraqi insurance sector companies (government), the research is based on the main premise that the identification of the requirements for the application of the International Fin
... Show MoreCold plasma is a relatively low temperature gas, so this feature enables us to use cold plasma to treat thermally sensitive materials including polymers and biologic tissues. In this research, the non-thermal plasma system is designed with diameter (3 mm, 10 mm) Argon at atmospheric pressure as well as to be suitable for use in medical and biotechnological applications.
The thermal description of this system was studied and we observed the effect of the diameter of the plasma needle on the plasma, when the plasma needle slot is increased the plasma temperature decrease, as well as the effect of the voltages applied to the temperature of the plasma, where the temperature increasing with increasing the applied voltage . Results showed t
The aim of this paper, is to design multilayer Feed Forward Neural Network(FFNN)to find the approximate solution of the second order linear Volterraintegro-differential equations with boundary conditions. The designer utilized to reduce the computation of solution, computationally attractive, and the applications are demonstrated through illustrative examples.
The flow in a manifolds considered as an advanced problem in hydraulic engineering applications. The objectives of this study are to determine; the uniformity qn/q1 (ratio of the discharge at last outlet, qn to the discharge at first outlet, q1) and total head losses of the flow along straight and rectangular loop manifolds with different flow conditions. The straight pipes were with 18 m and 19 m long and with of 25.4 mm (1.0 in) in diameter each. While, the rectangular close loop configuration was with length of 19 m and with diameter of 25.4 mm (1.0 in) also. Constant head in the supply tank was used and the head is 2.10 m. It is found that outlets spacing and manifold configuration are the main factors aff
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