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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 20 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceeding
Evaluation and production of predictive maps on the impact of climate factors on the the land cover for the Baghdad city for the period (1999-2021)
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The general objective of the research is to better understand changes in land cover and their impact on climatic factors by measuring changes in land cover for the Baghdad city for the period 1999-2021 and evaluating changes in land cover and measuring changes in climatic factors (relative humidity and evaporation). This study from 1999 to 2021 and in two different seasons: the April of the growing season and August the dry season. When using the supervised classification method to determine the differences, the results showed remarkable changes, the study showed the spatial variations in LC from 1999 to 2021 as follows: increase in the vegetation and water bodies during April and decrease this in August while the soil and built up decreas

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Multi-pages structure for Six Sigma performance matrix based on the technical characteristics of balanced performance and methodology Al-Sigma for measuring corporate performance: Suggestion vision
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Accelerates operating managements in the facilities contemporary business environment toward redefining processes and strategies that you need to perform tasks of guaranteeing them continue in an environment performance dominated by economic globalization and the circumstances of uncertainty attempt the creation of a new structure through multiple pages seek to improve profitability and sustainable growth in performance in a climatefocuses on the development of institutional processes, reduce costs and achieve customer satisfaction to meet their demands and expectations are constantly changing. The research was presented structural matrix performance combines methodology Alsigma in order to improve customer satisfaction significantly bet

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Adoption of Membership Level for Critical Activities In Knowledge Chain Model Building An Investigation Analytical Study Depending on Fuzzy Logic Architecture for Organizations Pushed by Knowledge
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Abstract

   The aim of this research is to concentrate on the of knowledge management activities, initial activities: (Acquisition, Selection, Generation, Assimilation, Emission) knowledge, and support activities: (Measurement, Control, Coordination, Leadership) that is manipulate and controlling in achieving knowledge management cases in organization, that’s is leads to  knowledge chain model, then determining the level of membership for these activities to knowledge chain model in a sample of Iraqi organization pushed by knowledge (Universities). The research depends on check list for gaining the data required, theses check list designed by apparently  in diagnosing research dimensions and measurem

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 25 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Study the Shapes of Nuclei for Heavy Elements with Mass Number Equal to (226≤A≤252) through Determination of Deformation Parameters for Two Elements (U&Cf)
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   The current paper focuses on the studying the forms of (even-even) nuclei for the heavy elements with mass numbers in the range from (A=226 - 252) for  isotopes. This work will consist of studying deformation parameters  which is deduced from the "Reduced Electric Transition Probability" which is in its turn dependent on the first Excited State . The "Intrinsic Electric Quadrupole Moments" (non-spherical charge distribution)  were also calculated. In addition to that the Roots Mean Square Radii (Isotope Shift) are accounted for in order to compare them with the theoretical results.

The difference and variation in shapes of nuclei for the selected isotopes were detected using &

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 04 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Study the optimum conditions for production of inulunase from isolate Kluyveromyces marxianus AY2.: Study the optimum conditions for production of inulunase from isolate Kluyveromyces marxianus AY2.
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Results showed that the optimum conditions for production of inulunase from isolate Kluyveromyces marxianus AY2 by submerged culture could be achieved by using inulin as carbon source at a concentration of 2% with mixture of yeast extract and ammonium sulphate in a ratio of 1:1 in a concentration of 1% at initial pH 5.5 after incubation for 42 hours at 30ºC.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use of model sales man fuzzy multi-objective linear for speed up and rationing in the transport mechanism used in the General Company for grain Processing
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     Applications of quantitative methods, which had been explicit attention during previous period (the last two centuries) is the method of application sales man or traveling salesman method. According to this interest by the actual need for a lot of the production sectors and companies that distribute their products, whether locally made or the imported for customers or other industry sectors where most of the productive sectors and companies distributed always aspired to (increase profits, imports, the production quantity, quantity of exports. etc. ...) this is the part of the other hand, want to behave during the process of distribution routes that achieve the best or the least or most appropriate.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Biology Textbook for Scientific Sixth Class in Iraq (A Comparative Study)
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The textbook is the primary means of creativity and thinking, which has a major role in the development of the readership and mental abilities of the student. It is the basic tool in education in Iraq for the teacher and the student, which cannot be dispensed in any educational program. The current study aimed at the book of the biology of the sixth grade of science in Iraq (comparative study). It was compared to the book of biology for the twelve grade in the Kingdom of Jordan to identify the ratio of similarity and differences between them, in addition, to identify the weaknesses in the Iraq curriculum and developing appropriate solutions and suggestions to address them. The sample was represented with books of biology (six-science cla

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Tuning PID Controller by Neural Network for Robot Manipulator Trajectory Tracking
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Ziegler and Nichols proposed the well-known Ziegler-Nichols method to tune the coefficients of PID controller. This tuning method is simple and gives fixed values for the coefficients which make PID controller have weak adaptabilities for the model parameters variation and changing in operating conditions. In order to achieve adaptive controller, the Neural Network (NN) self-tuning PID control is proposed in this paper which combines conventional PID controller and Neural Network learning capabilities. The proportional, integral and derivative (KP, KI, KD) gains are self tuned on-line by the NN output which is obtained due to the error value on the desired output of the system under control. The conventio

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
IMPLEMENTATION OF GYPSEOUS SOIL-ASPHALT STABILIZATION TECHNIQUE FOR BASE COURSE CONSTRUCTION
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The aim of this research work is to study the effect of stabilizing gypseous soil, which covers
vast areas in the middle, west and south parts of Iraq, using liquid asphalt on its strength properties
to be used as a base course layer replacing the traditional materials of coarse aggregate and broken
stones which are scarce at economical prices and hauling distances.
Gypseous soil brought from Al-Ramadi City, west of Iraq, with gypsum content of 66.65%,
medium curing cutback asphalt (MC-30), and hydrated lime are used in this study.
The conducted tests on untreated and treated gypseous soil with different percentages of medium
curing cutback asphalt (MC-30), water, and lime were: unconfined compression strength, and o

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