There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The general objective of the research is to better understand changes in land cover and their impact on climatic factors by measuring changes in land cover for the Baghdad city for the period 1999-2021 and evaluating changes in land cover and measuring changes in climatic factors (relative humidity and evaporation). This study from 1999 to 2021 and in two different seasons: the April of the growing season and August the dry season. When using the supervised classification method to determine the differences, the results showed remarkable changes, the study showed the spatial variations in LC from 1999 to 2021 as follows: increase in the vegetation and water bodies during April and decrease this in August while the soil and built up decreas
... Show MoreAccelerates operating managements in the facilities contemporary business environment toward redefining processes and strategies that you need to perform tasks of guaranteeing them continue in an environment performance dominated by economic globalization and the circumstances of uncertainty attempt the creation of a new structure through multiple pages seek to improve profitability and sustainable growth in performance in a climatefocuses on the development of institutional processes, reduce costs and achieve customer satisfaction to meet their demands and expectations are constantly changing. The research was presented structural matrix performance combines methodology Alsigma in order to improve customer satisfaction significantly bet
... Show MoreAbstract
The aim of this research is to concentrate on the of knowledge management activities, initial activities: (Acquisition, Selection, Generation, Assimilation, Emission) knowledge, and support activities: (Measurement, Control, Coordination, Leadership) that is manipulate and controlling in achieving knowledge management cases in organization, that’s is leads to knowledge chain model, then determining the level of membership for these activities to knowledge chain model in a sample of Iraqi organization pushed by knowledge (Universities). The research depends on check list for gaining the data required, theses check list designed by apparently in diagnosing research dimensions and measurem
... Show MoreThe current paper focuses on the studying the forms of (even-even) nuclei for the heavy elements with mass numbers in the range from (A=226 - 252) for isotopes. This work will consist of studying deformation parameters which is deduced from the "Reduced Electric Transition Probability" which is in its turn dependent on the first Excited State . The "Intrinsic Electric Quadrupole Moments" (non-spherical charge distribution) were also calculated. In addition to that the Roots Mean Square Radii (Isotope Shift) are accounted for in order to compare them with the theoretical results.
The difference and variation in shapes of nuclei for the selected isotopes were detected using &
... Show MoreResults showed that the optimum conditions for production of inulunase from isolate Kluyveromyces marxianus AY2 by submerged culture could be achieved by using inulin as carbon source at a concentration of 2% with mixture of yeast extract and ammonium sulphate in a ratio of 1:1 in a concentration of 1% at initial pH 5.5 after incubation for 42 hours at 30ºC.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
... Show MoreApplications of quantitative methods, which had been explicit attention during previous period (the last two centuries) is the method of application sales man or traveling salesman method. According to this interest by the actual need for a lot of the production sectors and companies that distribute their products, whether locally made or the imported for customers or other industry sectors where most of the productive sectors and companies distributed always aspired to (increase profits, imports, the production quantity, quantity of exports. etc. ...) this is the part of the other hand, want to behave during the process of distribution routes that achieve the best or the least or most appropriate.
... Show MoreThe textbook is the primary means of creativity and thinking, which has a major role in the development of the readership and mental abilities of the student. It is the basic tool in education in Iraq for the teacher and the student, which cannot be dispensed in any educational program. The current study aimed at the book of the biology of the sixth grade of science in Iraq (comparative study). It was compared to the book of biology for the twelve grade in the Kingdom of Jordan to identify the ratio of similarity and differences between them, in addition, to identify the weaknesses in the Iraq curriculum and developing appropriate solutions and suggestions to address them. The sample was represented with books of biology (six-science cla
... Show MoreZiegler and Nichols proposed the well-known Ziegler-Nichols method to tune the coefficients of PID controller. This tuning method is simple and gives fixed values for the coefficients which make PID controller have weak adaptabilities for the model parameters variation and changing in operating conditions. In order to achieve adaptive controller, the Neural Network (NN) self-tuning PID control is proposed in this paper which combines conventional PID controller and Neural Network learning capabilities. The proportional, integral and derivative (KP, KI, KD) gains are self tuned on-line by the NN output which is obtained due to the error value on the desired output of the system under control. The conventio
... Show MoreThe aim of this research work is to study the effect of stabilizing gypseous soil, which covers
vast areas in the middle, west and south parts of Iraq, using liquid asphalt on its strength properties
to be used as a base course layer replacing the traditional materials of coarse aggregate and broken
stones which are scarce at economical prices and hauling distances.
Gypseous soil brought from Al-Ramadi City, west of Iraq, with gypsum content of 66.65%,
medium curing cutback asphalt (MC-30), and hydrated lime are used in this study.
The conducted tests on untreated and treated gypseous soil with different percentages of medium
curing cutback asphalt (MC-30), water, and lime were: unconfined compression strength, and o