There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
A descriptive study, which was using an assessment approach, was conducted for the
determination of the impact of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis patient’s functional disability
upon their life style. The study was carried out at the Rheumatology and outpatients clinics of ALKarama
Teaching Hospital, Baghdad Teaching Hospital AL-Kindey Teaching Hospital and Specialized
surgeries Teaching Hospital for the period of October 15th 2003 through May 13th 2004 in Baghdad
City. A purposive (non-probability) sample of (245) arthritis patients which was comprised (111)
rheumatoid arthritis patients and (134) osteoarthritis patients, was selected out of the early stated
settings. The questionnaire was comprised of
The study dealt with measuring the impact of the availability of each of the content elements of the interaction, electronic services, and information on the evaluation of the users of the government website for its effectiveness in terms of the site’s functions and for measuring the site’s ability to present the organization’s tasks to customer groups.
Authority is concerned with measuring the confidence of customers in the content of the site, and in the organization as a whole. Validity is related to measuring the effectiveness of employing the site’s content to achieve the goal of its creation and in communicating with customers. Availability It is for measuring the ease of use of the site. The relevance, which means
... Show MoreSuppose that
In this paper, an Integral Backstepping Controller (IBC) is designed and optimized for full control, of rotational and translational dynamics, of an unmanned Quadcopter (QC). Before designing the controller, a mathematical model for the QC is developed in a form appropriate for the IBC design. Due to the underactuated property of the QC, it is possible to control the QC Cartesian positions (X, Y, and Z) and the yaw angle through ordering the desired values for them. As for the pitch and roll angles, they are generated by the position controllers. Backstepping Controller (BC) is a practical nonlinear control scheme based on Lyapunov design approach, which can, therefore, guarantee the convergence of the position tracking
... Show MoreThe specialist researcher fined the relations between economic ideas with economic facts in his theory which called humanity building it is appeared clearly ( in Ibn Khalduons’ Muqaddimah) in a clothe of economic social phenomenon's as a systematical analysis in all fifty chapters of al Muqaddimah ,therefore this paper deal with Ibn Khalduon economic thoughts as important says which describe the society building in its economic subjective and examine the relationship between The dissert and the city within economic says which are cover the social analysis ,and determinate the analysis objects which clearly in this dualism model ,between the state and economic bas
... Show MoreIn this paper, the finite difference method is used to solve fractional hyperbolic partial differential equations, by modifying the associated explicit and implicit difference methods used to solve fractional partial differential equation. A comparison with the exact solution is presented and the results are given in tabulated form in order to give a good comparison with the exact solution
In the present research, a crane frame has been investigated by using finite element method. The damage is simulated by reducing the stiffness of assumed elements with ratios (10% and 20 %) in mid- span of the vertical column in crane frame. The cracked beam with a one-edge and non-propagating crack has been used. Six cases of damage are modeled for crane frame and by introducing cracked elements at different locations with ratio of depth of crack to the height of the beam (a/h) 0.1, 0.20. A FEM program coded in Matlab 6.5 was used to model the numerical simulation of the damage scenarios. The results showed a decreasing in the five natural frequencies from undamaged beam which means
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