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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 09 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
A Study of the Change of the Total Solar Radiation Above Baghdad City for the Period from 1985.1989 By Using Satellite Antenna Data
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 The solar radiation plays an important role on the energy balance of the earthatmosphere, which is the main source of energy.  Also the solar radiation is a main factor of all applications which use a solar energy as renewable energy source.  The purpose of this research is to study the monthly average changes for solar radiation for the period from 1985 to 1989 by using satellite Antenna Alignment from (NASA). The result shows that the monthly average radiation changes from one year to another because of the changing of it component of atmosphere, (gases, clouds and Aerosols) and as an enhancement for this conclusion, we compared the results with the monthly average radiation at clear atmosphere where the change was slig

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measuring the concentration of uranium for adults teeth in adjacent areas of Tigris river in Baghdad city using nuclear track detector CR-39
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In this study, the fission track registration technique with the CR-39 detector are using to determination the uranium concentrations for seventeen samples of teeth distributed in four districts in Baghdad City .Five samples taken from both Al-Durra District and Al-Jadiriyia District, Four samples taken from Al-Karrda (Alaatar street) Taken four samples and three samples taken from Al-Zuafrania and by 0.5gm in weight and 1.5 mm in thickness. The uranium concentrations in teeth samples measured by using fission tracks registration in (CR-39) track detector that caused by the bombardment of (U) with thermal neutrons from (241 Am-Be) neutron source that has flux of (5 ×103 n cm-2 s-1). The concen

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Electrolytes Disturbances in Iraqi Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Patients treated with Nilotinib with Monitoring of Response by FISH Study
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Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative disorder characterized by the presence Philadelphia chromosome (Ph) which was created by a reciprocal translocation between chromosomes 9 and 22 (t [9;22] [q34;q11]. The approval of the 2nd generation TKI ( Nilotinib) takes the treatment of CML patients into new erea with more efficiency and mild to moderate adverse effects. This study was aimed at evaluation of molecular cytogenetic response by (FISH) for Nilotinib in Iraqi patients with assessment for electrolytes disturbances of Nilotinb by measuring a panel of electrolyte (Na+, K+, Ca++, PO4--- and Mg++) , where thirty Iraqi patients with CML who have resistance or no response to Imatinib treatment, attending to Baghdad Teaching Ho

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Publication Date
Wed May 07 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The association of crevicular albumin level with the severity of periodontal destruction in chronic periodontitis patients after initial periodontal treatment
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Background: Gingival crevice fluid (GCF) is a mixture of substances derived from serum, leukocytes, and structural cells of periodontium and oral bacteria. These substances possess a great potential for serving as indicators of periodontal disease and healing after therapy the main purpose of this study was to find if there is a difference in albumin concentration between healthy and diseased periodontal tissues and to compare between diseased group according to pocket depth Materials and methods: total sample composed of 60 pockets found in 35 patients all of them had no history of any systemic disease, The samples were divided in to three main group that include two diseased groups divided according to the depth of the periodontal pocket

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Publication Date
Wed May 07 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of serum levels of MMP-8 and hs CRP in chronic periodontitis patients in relation to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
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Background: Periodontitis and Atherosclerosis Cardiovascular disease are chronic inflammatory diseases which are highly prevalent. During the last two decades, there has been an increasing interest in the impact of oral health on atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular disease.Aims of the study wereto evaluate the periodontal health status in study groups (Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients with chronic periodontitis and patients having chronic periodontitis),to estimate the serum levels of Matrixmetalloproteinase-8(MMP-8) and high sensitive C-reactive protein(hs CRP) in study and control groups and compare between them. Also,test the correlation between the serum levels of MMP-8 and hs CRP with clinical periodontal par

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Designing system cost for water pollution plants in mayoralty of Baghdad
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          There is an increase in the need for cost accounting in all organizations and from different sectors to provide detailed information to the totals of financial accounting, first and help solve problems associated with inventory and analysis, tabulation and allocation of cost elements II and do the planning process and provide the necessary oversight and help to take the right decisions such as pricing decisions that need to Information cost accounting.
And suffer most of the non-governmental organizations from the lack of a cost accounting system provides information on the cost of service in these organizations and the department research sample circle v

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial contrast of the slums in the unity of the new municipal of Baghdad
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The slums one of the main problem plaguing the city of Baghdad in general and
the unity of municipality of New Baghdad, especially, where the characteristics of the study
area a prominent role in population growth and the emergence of slums where a private,
although the region suffer from the housing crisis is the lack of the number of housing units
compared to the number of families in which, With high land prices and the level of rent
which was accompanied by the absence of the law, which was followed by the year 2003, has
become the study area and one of the most municipalities of the city of Baghdad Contain
slums which took fills abandoned buildings and acquires vacant land agricultural ones and
allocated to d

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Pristina species (oligochaeta: naididae) in tigris river within baghdad city / Iraq
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A total of 72 individuals of genus Pristina were sorted from aquatic plant, Ceratophyllum demersum L., and filamentous algae collected from three sites on Tigris River at Baghdad including: Al-Sarafiya area (S1), Al- Jadiriyah area (S2), and Al- Za´afaraniya area (S3). Four species were identified including P. longiseta, P. aequiseta, P. proboscidea and P. foreli, with percentags of 51.7 , 36.4, 1.1, and 10.5 % respectively. The first two species found in all sites , while , P. proboscidea found only in S1 and P. foreli only in S2.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Detect Environment Pollution by GIS for Some Regions in Baghdad City
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Abstract<p>The present study aims at assessing the status of heavy metals such as nickel, cadmium and lead to pollute some areas of Baghdad city. In this study the spectral absorption device and the program ArcGIS 10.2 will using. The soil samples were taken from five different locations in Baghdad, including Ameriya, Kadhimiya, Palestine Street, Jadiriyah and Taji for the 5cm depth layer on both sides of the road. This work on soil samples has been completed in two :phases 1 - Preparation of samples: For the purpose of converting solid material into a extract containing elements in the form of single ions can be estimated by the device 2-Determination of elements: Samples prepared to the device</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Jul 22 2021
Journal Name
Open Access Macedonian Journal Of Medical Sciences
Intestinal Parasitic Infections in Relation to COVID-19 in Baghdad City
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BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is resulted from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which initiated in China in December 2019. Parasites are efficient immune modulators because their ability to stimulate an immune response in infected persons. AIM: This study aims to detect if there is a probable relationship between intestinal parasitic infections and COVID-19. METHODS: Ninety patients consulted at Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital (Al-Shifa center) from October 2020 till April 2021, confirmed infection with COVID-19 by PCR. Stool examination was done for detecting intestinal parasites. RESULTS: From 90 patients, males were 63 (70%), with median age 32 years, while females were 27 (30%), with age 24–44 years. Asymptomatic pati

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