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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses’ Knowledge and Practices concerning Physiotherapy Protocol at Intensive Care Units in AL-Nasiriyah City
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Abstract:

Objective (s): This study aims to assess nurses' knowledge and practice regarding physiotherapy protocol at intensive care units

Methodology: descriptive cross-sectional study design executed at the ICU in the city hospitals of AL- for the time of 13th October/ 2021 to 7th April /2022. Questionnaire filled by 75 nurses who work in ICU who had chosen by non-probability (purposive) selection collected the data. Then the researcher used an observational checklist to evaluate nurses’ practice. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and SPSS.

Results: the study found a deficit in nurses’ knowledge and pra

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 13 2022
Journal Name
وقائع المؤتمر العلمي الدولي التاسع / المجلة الامريكية الدولية للعلوم الانسانية والاجتماعية
The Relationship between Job Satisfaction and Organizational Loyalty among Baghdad University Employees in light of Covid- 19 A Descriptive Analytical Study (University of Baghdad as a model)
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The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Screening Program for Urinary Tract Infection of Prepubertal Children at Al Nasiriya City Primary Schools
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Objective(s): The study aims Finding relationship between UTI and demographic variable include: child's age, child's gender, if males are circumcised or not, child's order in his family, father's level of education, mother's level of education, place of residence and family socioeconomic status. Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted on students of primary schools for both sexes, for the period from 19th. February 2014 through to 4th March 2014. A selected sample from two steps the first stage is to choose a school by a stratified- cluster sample, getting schools that have been selected (12) sch

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Cognitive Conception Anxiety of the University of Baghdad Students
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The rabid development in life and technology arouse the anxiety, stress, and fear of people. Accordingly the maladjustment and deceived conceptions appear in their behaviors which influence their selves and others.
These changes and development in society influence the university students' life, personality, thoughts and behavior. An exceeding in anxiety and fear has negative effect on everyday life activities and. negative effect on both mind and body.
The problem of the study is centered around cognitive conception anxiety of the university students.
The university students have their special importance in society and nation development, therefore many studies search in their personality and the effect of anxiety on them to fi

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Ryznar Index for the treated water from WTPs on Al-Karakh side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measuring the concentration of uranium for adults teeth in adjacent areas of Tigris river in Baghdad city using nuclear track detector CR-39
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In this study, the fission track registration technique with the CR-39 detector are using to determination the uranium concentrations for seventeen samples of teeth distributed in four districts in Baghdad City .Five samples taken from both Al-Durra District and Al-Jadiriyia District, Four samples taken from Al-Karrda (Alaatar street) Taken four samples and three samples taken from Al-Zuafrania and by 0.5gm in weight and 1.5 mm in thickness. The uranium concentrations in teeth samples measured by using fission tracks registration in (CR-39) track detector that caused by the bombardment of (U) with thermal neutrons from (241 Am-Be) neutron source that has flux of (5 ×103 n cm-2 s-1). The concen

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impact of maternal risk factors on the outcome of pregnancy in Baghdad city
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To find out the impact of maternal risk factors on the outcome of pregnancy in Baghdad city. A descriptive purposive study was carried out on 100 postpartum women who had delivered for 1 hr. to 24 hrs. ago . the study sample was selected from three hospitals in Baghdad city ( Baghdad teaching hospital ,Fatima Al-Zahra'a maternity and pediatric teaching hospital and Al-Yarmook teaching hospital),during the period from 25 Jan. to 25 Feb. 2006. The data were collected through the use of questionnaire format reviewing pregnants' records and personal interview and were analyzed by using descriptive and inferential statistical approaches. The finding revealed that maternal pregnancy complications had weak effects on pregnancy outcome , while mate

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Study of bacterial contamination of defected eggshells and egg contents in Baghdad city
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The main aim of the current research is to focus the light on some bacterial contamination on cracked eggshell and egg content plus studying the sensitivity of these bacterial isolates to antibiotics. For this purpose, a total of 50 eggs were collected from the markets in Baghdad city (Iraq) and examined for bacterial isolation from cracked eggshells and from the egg contents. The bacterial isolates were cultured and purified then transferred to a specific media to study its sensitivity against antibiotics. The results revealed that bacteria isolated from both cracked eggshells (46%) and egg contents (44%). The bacteria isolated include E. coli, Staphylococcus, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterobacter and Pseudomonas. The results of antibiotic s

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Calculation of soil pollution indices with elements in residential areas of Baghdad city
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Estimation of elements: Pb, Zn, Mn, Cd, and Cu, which were conducted seasonally from October-2021 till March-2022 in residential areas of Baghdad City using Geoaccumulation index (Igeo), enrichment factor ratios (EF), the factor of contamination (CF), contamination degree (Cd), index of pollution load (PLI) and index of potential ecological risk (Eif). The overall contamination factor in the research area is limited from low contamination with Cu, Mn, and Zn, moderately contaminated to very high contamination with Pb and Cd, while the assessment according to the I-geo index shows categories that vary from a slightly polluted to unpolluted by those examined heavy metals. The pollution load index indicates that the soils in some resi

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Water Resources
Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of Trihalomethanes in Major Drinking Water Sources of Baghdad City
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