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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 05 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Estimation of some salivary variables and oral health status of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia aged 45-55 years
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Background: Chronic myeloid leukemia is a cancer of the white blood cells characterized by the increased and unregulated growth of predominantly myeloid cells in the bone marrow. This study aimed to determine the effect of chronic myeloid leukemia on Dental caries and Oral health status including Gingivitis, Loss of attachment, Plaque index and Calculus index as well as evaluation of salivary flow rate and salivary interleukins-6 and tumor necrosis factor-?. Material and methods: Study group consisted of (75) subjects, (25) were newly diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, (25) were taking medications (Glevic), and (25) were control subjects, all ag

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Health-Related Quality of Life in a Sample of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients in AL-Diwanyia Province /Iraq.
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The effect of mental and physical health on the feelings of subject welfare is known as health-related quality of life. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a common respiratory diseases. Assessment of health-related quality of life is considered important in such chronic disease. The objective of the current study was to measure health-related quality of life in a sample of chronic obstructive pulmonary  patients in AL- Diwanyia city/Iraq. This study was carried out on 150 already diagnosed COPD patients who attended to the Center of Respiratory Diseases/AL-Diwaniyah Teaching Hospital during September  2019 to January 2020. The Arabic version of St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire was used to asses

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Publication Date
Fri May 11 2018
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Molecular and Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Papillomavirus Using L1 Gene in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients in Baghdad, Iraq
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Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is the most common malignant neoplasm of the oral mucosa. Human papillomavirus (HPV) virus cause a broad scope of diseases from benign to invasive tumors, types 16 and 18 classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study aimed to provide the first molecular characterization of HPV types in Iraq. Thirty-five unstimulated whole saliva samples were collected from histopathologically confirmed patients with oral cancer were enrolled in this study. Genomic DNA was extracted from exfoliating cells to amplify HPV-DNA using HPV-L1 gene sequence primers by polymerase chain reaction method (PCR), the viral genotyping was performed using direct sequencing method. HPV genotypes identified were deposited in Gen

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Publication Date
Fri May 11 2018
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Molecular and Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Papillomavirus Using L1 Gene in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients in Baghdad, Iraq
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Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is the most common malignant neoplasm of the oral mucosa. Human papillomavirus (HPV) virus cause a broad scope of diseases from benign to invasive tumors, types 16 and 18 classified as carcinogenic to humans. This study aimed to provide the first molecular characterization of HPV types in Iraq. Thirty-five unstimulated whole saliva samples were collected from histopathologically confirmed patients with oral cancer were enrolled in this study. Genomic DNA was extracted from exfoliating cells to amplify HPV-DNA using HPV-L1 gene sequence primers by polymerase chain reaction method (PCR), the viral genotyping was performed using direct sequencing method. HPV genotypes identified were deposited in Gen

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses’ Knowledge and Practices concerning Physiotherapy Protocol at Intensive Care Units in AL-Nasiriyah City
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Abstract:

Objective (s): This study aims to assess nurses' knowledge and practice regarding physiotherapy protocol at intensive care units

Methodology: descriptive cross-sectional study design executed at the ICU in the city hospitals of AL- for the time of 13th October/ 2021 to 7th April /2022. Questionnaire filled by 75 nurses who work in ICU who had chosen by non-probability (purposive) selection collected the data. Then the researcher used an observational checklist to evaluate nurses’ practice. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and SPSS.

Results: the study found a deficit in nurses’ knowledge and pra

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heavy Metals Concentration in Commercial Rice Available at Erbil City Markets, Iraq and Soaking Effects
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Heavy metal (HM) pollution has long been a significant source of environmental deterioration and a problem for the safety of food. Iraqis prefer rice over any other food, and since heavy metals have a direct impact on health, their traces in rice have drawn particular attention. Before cooking rice, it is usual in Iraq to wash and soak it. Some 55 varieties of imported and local rice were sampled from Erbil city markets in 2022 with the aim of determining the concentration of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb before and after soaking. Standard procedure of acid digestions was applied on the raw and soaked samples. The solutions were analyzed using ICPE-9820 Shimadzu. The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb (in mg/kg) in the rice samples bef

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Screening Program for Urinary Tract Infection of Prepubertal Children at Al Nasiriya City Primary Schools
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Objective(s): The study aims Finding relationship between UTI and demographic variable include: child's age, child's gender, if males are circumcised or not, child's order in his family, father's level of education, mother's level of education, place of residence and family socioeconomic status. Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted on students of primary schools for both sexes, for the period from 19th. February 2014 through to 4th March 2014. A selected sample from two steps the first stage is to choose a school by a stratified- cluster sample, getting schools that have been selected (12) sch

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 19 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
USING PROBABILITY REGRESSION MODELS TO MEASURING MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY FOR BROILER PROJECTS
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The efficiency of management is determining factor for the success or failure of agricultural projects generally and Livestock particularly achieving its objectives. Therefore, this research came to diagnose the most important variables that determine the efficiency of management using the probability regression models to measure the probability of management efficient of broilers production projects using  random sample included (60) broilers projects represented 11.6% of Baghdad province (research community) in 2016. After estimating the relationship between the management efficiency (descriptive dependent variable) and the independent variables affecting it (age, educational level, production index (PI), experience). The results

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Ryznar Index for the treated water from WTPs on Al-Karakh side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measuring the concentration of uranium for adults teeth in adjacent areas of Tigris river in Baghdad city using nuclear track detector CR-39
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In this study, the fission track registration technique with the CR-39 detector are using to determination the uranium concentrations for seventeen samples of teeth distributed in four districts in Baghdad City .Five samples taken from both Al-Durra District and Al-Jadiriyia District, Four samples taken from Al-Karrda (Alaatar street) Taken four samples and three samples taken from Al-Zuafrania and by 0.5gm in weight and 1.5 mm in thickness. The uranium concentrations in teeth samples measured by using fission tracks registration in (CR-39) track detector that caused by the bombardment of (U) with thermal neutrons from (241 Am-Be) neutron source that has flux of (5 ×103 n cm-2 s-1). The concen

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