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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measuring the concentration of uranium for adults teeth in adjacent areas of Tigris river in Baghdad city using nuclear track detector CR-39
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In this study, the fission track registration technique with the CR-39 detector are using to determination the uranium concentrations for seventeen samples of teeth distributed in four districts in Baghdad City .Five samples taken from both Al-Durra District and Al-Jadiriyia District, Four samples taken from Al-Karrda (Alaatar street) Taken four samples and three samples taken from Al-Zuafrania and by 0.5gm in weight and 1.5 mm in thickness. The uranium concentrations in teeth samples measured by using fission tracks registration in (CR-39) track detector that caused by the bombardment of (U) with thermal neutrons from (241 Am-Be) neutron source that has flux of (5 ×103 n cm-2 s-1). The concen

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Ryznar Index for the treated water from WTPs on Al-Karakh side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Calculation of soil pollution indices with elements in residential areas of Baghdad city
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Estimation of elements: Pb, Zn, Mn, Cd, and Cu, which were conducted seasonally from October-2021 till March-2022 in residential areas of Baghdad City using Geoaccumulation index (Igeo), enrichment factor ratios (EF), the factor of contamination (CF), contamination degree (Cd), index of pollution load (PLI) and index of potential ecological risk (Eif). The overall contamination factor in the research area is limited from low contamination with Cu, Mn, and Zn, moderately contaminated to very high contamination with Pb and Cd, while the assessment according to the I-geo index shows categories that vary from a slightly polluted to unpolluted by those examined heavy metals. The pollution load index indicates that the soils in some resi

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Study of bacterial contamination of defected eggshells and egg contents in Baghdad city
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The main aim of the current research is to focus the light on some bacterial contamination on cracked eggshell and egg content plus studying the sensitivity of these bacterial isolates to antibiotics. For this purpose, a total of 50 eggs were collected from the markets in Baghdad city (Iraq) and examined for bacterial isolation from cracked eggshells and from the egg contents. The bacterial isolates were cultured and purified then transferred to a specific media to study its sensitivity against antibiotics. The results revealed that bacteria isolated from both cracked eggshells (46%) and egg contents (44%). The bacteria isolated include E. coli, Staphylococcus, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterobacter and Pseudomonas. The results of antibiotic s

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Water Resources
Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of Trihalomethanes in Major Drinking Water Sources of Baghdad City
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impact of maternal risk factors on the outcome of pregnancy in Baghdad city
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To find out the impact of maternal risk factors on the outcome of pregnancy in Baghdad city. A descriptive purposive study was carried out on 100 postpartum women who had delivered for 1 hr. to 24 hrs. ago . the study sample was selected from three hospitals in Baghdad city ( Baghdad teaching hospital ,Fatima Al-Zahra'a maternity and pediatric teaching hospital and Al-Yarmook teaching hospital),during the period from 25 Jan. to 25 Feb. 2006. The data were collected through the use of questionnaire format reviewing pregnants' records and personal interview and were analyzed by using descriptive and inferential statistical approaches. The finding revealed that maternal pregnancy complications had weak effects on pregnancy outcome , while mate

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Designing system cost for water pollution plants in mayoralty of Baghdad
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          There is an increase in the need for cost accounting in all organizations and from different sectors to provide detailed information to the totals of financial accounting, first and help solve problems associated with inventory and analysis, tabulation and allocation of cost elements II and do the planning process and provide the necessary oversight and help to take the right decisions such as pricing decisions that need to Information cost accounting.
And suffer most of the non-governmental organizations from the lack of a cost accounting system provides information on the cost of service in these organizations and the department research sample circle v

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 22 2021
Journal Name
Open Access Macedonian Journal Of Medical Sciences
Intestinal Parasitic Infections in Relation to COVID-19 in Baghdad City
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BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is resulted from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which initiated in China in December 2019. Parasites are efficient immune modulators because their ability to stimulate an immune response in infected persons. AIM: This study aims to detect if there is a probable relationship between intestinal parasitic infections and COVID-19. METHODS: Ninety patients consulted at Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital (Al-Shifa center) from October 2020 till April 2021, confirmed infection with COVID-19 by PCR. Stool examination was done for detecting intestinal parasites. RESULTS: From 90 patients, males were 63 (70%), with median age 32 years, while females were 27 (30%), with age 24–44 years. Asymptomatic pati

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Pristina species (oligochaeta: naididae) in tigris river within baghdad city / Iraq
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A total of 72 individuals of genus Pristina were sorted from aquatic plant, Ceratophyllum demersum L., and filamentous algae collected from three sites on Tigris River at Baghdad including: Al-Sarafiya area (S1), Al- Jadiriyah area (S2), and Al- Za´afaraniya area (S3). Four species were identified including P. longiseta, P. aequiseta, P. proboscidea and P. foreli, with percentags of 51.7 , 36.4, 1.1, and 10.5 % respectively. The first two species found in all sites , while , P. proboscidea found only in S1 and P. foreli only in S2.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Water Resource And Protection
Evaluating Water Stability Indices from Water Treatment Plants in Baghdad City
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