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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of some salivary enzymes levels in type 2 diabetic patients with chronic periodontitis (Clinical and biochemical study)
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Background: Diabetic patients have been reported to be more susceptible to gingivitis and periodontitis than healthy subjects. Many intracellular enzymes like (alkaline phosphatase- (ALP), aspartate aminotransferase- (AST) and alanine aminotransferase- (ALT) that are released outside cells into the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) and saliva after destruction of periodontal tissue during periodontitis. This study was conducted to determine the periodontal health status and the levels of salivary enzymes (ALP, AST and ALT) of the study and control groups and to correlate the levels of these enzymes with clinical periodontal parameters in each study group. Subjects, Materials and Methods: One hundred subjects were enrolled in the study, with a

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Gastroenterology Review
The impact of sofosbuvir/ledipasvir on chronic hepatitis C-infected paediatric patients: a Middle East single-centre experience
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
The Egyptian Journal Of Hospital Medicine
Association of Microrna-153-3p Expression in Response to Treatment with Imatinib in Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia
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The study aimed to establish the association of miR-153-3p expression with treatment response to IM in CML patients. Sixty CML patients were included and divided into two groups consistent with their response to treatment whether sensitive or resistant to IM. Ten healthy normal participants were enrolled as control group. RNA was extracted from serum to work out miR-153-3p expression utilizing real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The primers were supplied by Macrogen Inc. Twenty seven patients were sensitive to imatinib and 33 were resistant to imatinib. The ratio of male to female was 1.14:1. The bulk (58%) of patients were within the age range of 41-60 years. Weight and gender did not significantly diffe

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 30 2022
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
The Distribution of ABO blood groups among type 2 Diabetes mellitus patients with or without Chronic Microvascular Complications
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The ABO blood group system is highly polymorphic, with more than 20 distinct sub-groups; study findings are usually related to ABO phenotype, but rarely to the ABO genotype and animal models are unsatisfactory because their antigen glycosylation structure is different from humans. Both the ABO and Rh blood group systems have been associated with a number of diseases, but this is more likely related to the presence or absence of these tissue antigens throughout the body and not directly or primarily related to their presence on RBCs. A total of fifty-two 52 patients without complication of DMII, two hundred sixteen 216 patients with complication of DMII and seventy-one 71 person as healthy control were included in the study. The resu

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of the effectiveness of coenzyme Q10 gel in management of patients with chronic periodontitis (I intra group comparison)
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Background: Periodontal pathogens can induce free radicals over-formation and thus may cause collagen and periodontal destruction. Anti-oxidants are used as supplements to counteract the over production of free radicals in periodontal disease, that can reduce of collagen destruction. Coenzyme Q10 serves as an endogenous antioxidant, regenerates other antioxidants, stimulates cell growth, and inhibits cell death. Because it is an antioxidant, coenzyme Q10 has received much research attention associated with periodontal diseases. Perio Q gel may possibly be effective as a topical agent and as an adjunct to scaling& root planing in treatment of gingivitis and chronic periodontitis. Aim of study:Determine the periodontal health status in a foll

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 08 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
المشكالت الصحية المرافقة لالستخدام الخاطئ للحاسوب في مدينة بغداد
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The Research aimed for identification the significant of health problems that occurrences through
misused of computer for those whom attaches with more than two hours daily and to identification the
nature of demographical characteristics variables and that related variables with using computer. Also to
know the level of user’s knowledge for some attaché’s equipment's and finally creating a new suggested
measurement scale for studying health problems that were occurred through misused of computer.
Creating questionnaire includes several domains (Social problems – family environment, Social problems –
external environment, some health problems attaches with related equipment's, psychological problems,
and hea

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Attitudes of Mass Media Students in Baghdad University toward Marriage
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This Study aims at identifying the attitudes of Masses Media students in Baghdad university toward marriage and the differences of this variable according to sex and the grade. The sample consists of (160) male and Females students, where the questionnaire consists of (40) items’ after achieving their reliability and constancy.
The results show that the attitudes of the students are Positive, there are no differences in the attitudes toward marriage according to sex variable (males and females) and there are differences in the variable of grade toward marriage for the First Class. In the lights of these results the researcher suggests making improvements in the attitudes toward marriage suiting the social value and customs of Iraqi

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Symptoms profile of patients with major depression in Baghdad
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:Background: Many studies had stated that there are marked variations in the clinical presentation of depressive states between different cultures.Objectives: The main aim of the study is to identify the symptoms profile of patients with major depressive disorder living in Baghdad.Method: Ninety two patients with major depressive disorder consulting Ibn-Rushd psychiatric teaching hospital were studied thoroughly to identify the frequency of symptoms among them. The fifth edition of the Arabic version of the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I) was used to identify the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual – fourth edition (DSM-IV) symptoms. A list of other symptoms, which were found to present variably in depression acco

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Evaluating the Indicators and Quality of Potable Water Networks in Al-Shatrah City: سميع جلاب منسي السهلاني
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The present paper aims at evaluating the vailability quality and future horizons of potable water in the city of Shatra as a model. This is done in accordance with certain subjective and objective factors alongside the classification map of Shatra as a residential area. This system follows geographical studies specialized in urban construction. The problem of the present paper as well as the data approaching that problem have been chosen from the records of 2018. The researcher offered (919) questionnaire forms to be answered by a sample of dwellers in that area. Besides, the researcher also followed lab analysis of water samples collected from districts in the city of Shatra. GIS technology was also used to arrive at the real water shar

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Learning for Scientific Culture by Using Interactive Whiteboard According to the Faculty of the University of Baghdad Viewpoint
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The progress of science in all its branches and levels made great civilized changes of
our societies in the present day, it's a result of the huge amount of knowledge, the increase of
number of students, and the increase of community awareness proportion of the importance of
education in schools and universities, it became necessary for us as educators to look at
science from another point of view based on the idea of scientific development of curricula
and teaching methods and means of education, and for the studying class environment as a
whole, by computer and internet use in education to the emergence of the term education
technology, which relies on the use of modern technology to provide educational content to<

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