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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Investigating the quality of open street map roads data inside Baghdad city
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Measurement of Background Radioactivity in Sewage Sludge for Baghdad City Treatment Stations
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Sewage sludge samples were collected from Al-rasafa and Al-karkh refinement stations which represent the main stations of Baghdad city. Samples were collected from all treatment stages: before, after, and during refinement processes. The High Purity Germanium Coaxial Detector system with energy resolution 1.8 keV for energy line 1333 keV of Co – 60 radioactive sources was used to measure radioactivity from both natural and artificial sources. GENIE – 2000 analysis the results statistically and qualitatively. The results showed that all sewage sludge samples exhibited natural radioactive level and sometimes less than the international regular standards, but Al–Karkh station showed increment in radioactive levels than Al– Rasa

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Advances In Public Health
Detection of Antibiotics in Drinking Water Treatment Plants in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Persistence of antibiotics in the aquatic environment has raised concerns regarding their potential influence on potable water quality and human health. This study analyzes the presence of antibiotics in potable water from two treatment plants in Baghdad City. The collected samples were separated using a solid-phase extraction method with hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) cartridge before being analyzed. The detected antibiotics in the raw and finished drinking water were analyzed and assessed using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), with fluorometric detector and UV detector. The results confirmed that different antibiotics including fluoroquinolones andB-lactams were detected in the raw an

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Scientific Review Engineering And Environmental Studies (srees)
Testing the performance of a solar energy cooling system in Baghdad city
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Renewable energy resources have become a promissory alternative to overcome the problems related to atmospheric pollution and limited sources of fossil fuel energy. The technologies in the field of renewable energy are used also to improve the ventilation and cooling in buildings by using the solar chimney and heat exchanger. This study addresses the design, construction and testing of a cooling system by using the above two techniques. The aim was to study the effects of weather conditions on the efficiency of this system which was installed in Baghdad for April and May 2020. The common weather in these months is hot in Baghdad. The test room of the design which has a size of 1 m3 was situated to face the geographical south. The te

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Study of Drinking Water Properties in Some Hospitals in Baghdad City
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One of the bigger problems in drinking water is disinfection by-products (DBPs) that come from chlorinated disinfection. This study’s goal was to evaluate the drinking water in Al-Yarmouk Teaching Hospital, Ibn Sina Hospital and Ibn-Al-Nafis Hospital.  Samples were collected between October 2018 and September 2019. Physical and chemical characteristics of the water were studied, including (temperature, hydrogen ion (pH), total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), turbidity, free residual chlorine, total organic carbon (TOC), total trihalomethanes (THMs), total halo acetic acid (THAAs)). Data analysis showed the highest value of study temperature, pH, TDS, EC, turbidity, free residual chlorine and TOC which was

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Productivity and Yield of Wheat Cultivated Using Developed Seasonal Schedule Irrigation in the Nineveh Province
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The agricultural lands that depend on supplementary irrigation methods for winter wheat cultivating in wide areas of the Nineveh province are most vulnerable to climate change concerns. Due to frequent rainfall shortages and the temperature increase recently noticed and predicted by the climate scenarios. Hence important to assess the climate effect on the crop response in terms of water consumption during the periods (2021-2040) and (2041-2060) by using high-resolution data extracted from 6 global climate data GCMs under SSP5-8.5 fossil fuel emission scenarios in changing and fixed CO2 concentration. And validate the Aqua-Crop model to estimate the yield and water productivity. And gives the RRSME of 7.1- 4.1

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Correlation between Visfatin and Creatine Kinase Levels with Periodontal Health Status of Patients with Coronary Atherosclerosis and Chronic Periodontitis
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Background: Visfatin is a novel adipokine that mainly secreted by visceral adipose tissue, had an important role in inflammation and immune system. Creatine Kinase (CK) which is an enzyme that is involved in energy metabolism, found in large amounts in myocardium, brain and skeletal tissues. This study is carried out To evaluate the periodontal health status of the study groups (chronic periodontitis and chronic periodontitis with coronary atherosclerosis) and control groups, to measure the salivary levels of visfatin and Creatine Kinase in these groups and compare between them, and to determine the correlations between salivary visfatin and Creatine Kinase levels with the periodontal parameters in the three groups. Materials and Methods: e

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Publication Date
Sat May 03 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Assessment of Salivary Leptin and Resistin Levels in Type Two Diabetic Patients with Chronic Periodontitis (A Comparative Study)
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Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitusand chronic periodontitis hold a close relationship that has been the focus of many researches. Currently there is an appreciation to the role of adipose tissue-derived substances "the adipokines" in immune-inflammatory responses; also, there is an interest in using the simple non-invasive saliva in diagnosing and linking oral and general health problems. The current study aims to determine the periodontal health status in the chronic periodontitis patients with and without poorly or well controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus, measure the salivary levels of two adipokines "leptin and resistin", pH and flow rate and then correlate between these clinical periodontal, biochemical and physical parameters in eac

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of diabetes mellitus on periodontal health status, salivary flow rate and salivary pH in patients with chronic periodontitis
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Background: Diabetes and periodontitis are considered as chronic diseases with a bidirectional relationship between them. This study aimed to determine and compare the severity of periodontal health status and salivary parameters in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with chronic periodontitis. Materials and Methods: Seventy participants were enrolled in this study. The subjects were divided into three groups: Group I: 25 patients had type 2 diabetes mellitus with chronic periodontitis, Group 2: 25 patients had chronic periodontitis and with no history of any systemic diseases, Group 3: 20 subjects had healthy periodontium and were systemically healthy. Unstimulated whole saliva was collected for measurement of salivary flow rate and pH.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of Interleukin-31 Serum Levels in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis with and without Uremic Pruritus
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الخلاصة: الحكة اليوريمية لدى مرضى غسيل الكلى يؤثر على أكثر من 40٪ من المرضى. وربما ترتبط الحكة المستمرة بمستويات عالية من الإنترلوكين 31. الاهداف: النظر إلى مستويات مصل إنترلوكين 31 لدى مرضى غسيل الكلى المصابين بمرض الكلى في المرحلة النهائية، سواء مع أو بدون حكة يوريمية. النتائج: لم يكن مستوى المصل [الوسيط (] لـ IL-31 في المرضى الذين يعانون من الحكة اليوريميةأو بدون حكة في عينة مصل ما قبل غسيل الكلى مختلفًا بشكل م

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