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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Management of Chronic Osteomylitis
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Background : Bone infections is one of the most challenging orthopaedic complications, with considerable morbidity. There is significant impact on the life of the patients; socially, financially, physically, and mentally and it could be a limb-threatening complication. Osteomyelitis is a bone infection usually caused by bacteria, including mycobacteria, but mainly Staphylococcus aureus which is the most commonly responsible bacteria . Aim of study: To evaluate our management policy of chronic osteomylitis (C.O.M).
Methods : 32 patients presented with different types &forms of chronic osteomyelitis in many sites of long & flat bones such as tibia , femur, ,humerus ,iliac bones and knee joint , which are not response to previous

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 27 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Program and Water Quality Index (WQI) to Assess and Manage Groundwater Quality in the City of Baghdad
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Groundwater is an essential source because of its high quality and continuous availability characterize this water resource. Therefore, the study of groundwater has required more attention. The present study aims to assess and manage groundwater quality's suitability for various purposes through the Geographical Information System GIS and the Water Quality Index WQI. The study area is located in the city of Baghdad in central Iraq, with an approximate area of ​​900 , data were collected from the relevant official departments representing the locations of 97 wells of groundwater in the study area for the year 2019, as it included physicochemical parameters such as  pH, EC, TDS, Na, K, Mg, Ca, Cl,  , and &nbs

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 27 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Estimation of some salivary variables and oral health status of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia aged 45-55 years
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Background: Chronic myeloid leukemia is a cancer of the white blood cells characterized by the increased and unregulated growth of predominantly myeloid cells in the bone marrow. This study aimed to determine the effect of chronic myeloid leukemia on Dental caries and Oral health status including Gingivitis, Loss of attachment, Plaque index and Calculus index as well as evaluation of salivary flow rate and salivary interleukins-6 and tumor necrosis factor-?. Material and methods: Study group consisted of (75) subjects, (25) were newly diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, (25) were taking medications (Glevic), and (25) were control subjects, all ag

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Health-Related Quality of Life in a Sample of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients in AL-Diwanyia Province /Iraq.
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The effect of mental and physical health on the feelings of subject welfare is known as health-related quality of life. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a common respiratory diseases. Assessment of health-related quality of life is considered important in such chronic disease. The objective of the current study was to measure health-related quality of life in a sample of chronic obstructive pulmonary  patients in AL- Diwanyia city/Iraq. This study was carried out on 150 already diagnosed COPD patients who attended to the Center of Respiratory Diseases/AL-Diwaniyah Teaching Hospital during September  2019 to January 2020. The Arabic version of St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire was used to asses

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 09 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Discrete Mathematical Sciences And Cryptography
A novel improvement of skew tent map for generating Pseudo random numbers
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An encryption system needs unpredictability and randomness property to maintain information security during transmission and storage. Although chaotic maps have this property, they have limitations such as low Lyapunov exponents, low sensitivity and limited chaotic regions. The paper presents a new improved skewed tent map to address these problems. The improved skew tent map (ISTM) increases the sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters. It has uniform distribution of output sequences. The programs for ISTM chaotic behavior were implemented in MATLAB R2023b. The novel ISTM produces a binary sequence, with high degree of complexity and good randomness properties. The performance of the ISTM generator shows effective s

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heavy Metals Concentration in Commercial Rice Available at Erbil City Markets, Iraq and Soaking Effects
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Heavy metal (HM) pollution has long been a significant source of environmental deterioration and a problem for the safety of food. Iraqis prefer rice over any other food, and since heavy metals have a direct impact on health, their traces in rice have drawn particular attention. Before cooking rice, it is usual in Iraq to wash and soak it. Some 55 varieties of imported and local rice were sampled from Erbil city markets in 2022 with the aim of determining the concentration of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb before and after soaking. Standard procedure of acid digestions was applied on the raw and soaked samples. The solutions were analyzed using ICPE-9820 Shimadzu. The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb (in mg/kg) in the rice samples bef

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses’ Knowledge and Practices concerning Physiotherapy Protocol at Intensive Care Units in AL-Nasiriyah City
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Abstract:

Objective (s): This study aims to assess nurses' knowledge and practice regarding physiotherapy protocol at intensive care units

Methodology: descriptive cross-sectional study design executed at the ICU in the city hospitals of AL- for the time of 13th October/ 2021 to 7th April /2022. Questionnaire filled by 75 nurses who work in ICU who had chosen by non-probability (purposive) selection collected the data. Then the researcher used an observational checklist to evaluate nurses’ practice. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and SPSS.

Results: the study found a deficit in nurses’ knowledge and pra

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Social attraction among Baghdad University Teaching Staff
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During the last two decades at least, increased interest in Social attraction  variable by scientists  in psychology and sociology, to multi-dimensional and its association with psychological  and emotional variables , and what are of importance in the process of human communication , leadership, and social relations.

Social psychologists interested   in social attraction also  so its relation with  social influence , political and occupational  .
"Social attraction defined as "individual ability  functioned his skills in at

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Upgrading Sharky Baghdad Heavy Crude Oil
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Shaky Baghdad heavy crude oil 22 API is processed by distillation and solvent extraction. The purpose of distillation is to separate the light distillates    (light fractions) which represent 35% of heavy crude oil, and to obtain the reduced crude oil. The heavy residue (9 API) is  extracted with Iraqi light naphtha to get the deasphaltened oil (DAO), the extraction carried out with temperature range of 20-75 oC, solvent to oil ratio 5-15:1(ml:g) and a mixing time of 15 minutes. In general, results show that API of DAO increased twice the API of reduced crude oil while sulfur and metals content decreased 20% and 50% respectively. Deasphaltened oil produced from various operating conditions blended with the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Screening Program for Urinary Tract Infection of Prepubertal Children at Al Nasiriya City Primary Schools
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Objective(s): The study aims Finding relationship between UTI and demographic variable include: child's age, child's gender, if males are circumcised or not, child's order in his family, father's level of education, mother's level of education, place of residence and family socioeconomic status. Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted on students of primary schools for both sexes, for the period from 19th. February 2014 through to 4th March 2014. A selected sample from two steps the first stage is to choose a school by a stratified- cluster sample, getting schools that have been selected (12) sch

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