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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of diabetes mellitus on periodontal health status, salivary flow rate and salivary pH in patients with chronic periodontitis
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Background: Diabetes and periodontitis are considered as chronic diseases with a bidirectional relationship between them. This study aimed to determine and compare the severity of periodontal health status and salivary parameters in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with chronic periodontitis. Materials and Methods: Seventy participants were enrolled in this study. The subjects were divided into three groups: Group I: 25 patients had type 2 diabetes mellitus with chronic periodontitis, Group 2: 25 patients had chronic periodontitis and with no history of any systemic diseases, Group 3: 20 subjects had healthy periodontium and were systemically healthy. Unstimulated whole saliva was collected for measurement of salivary flow rate and pH.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Calculation of the Charge Density Distributions and the Longitudinal Form Factors of 10 B Nucleus by Using the Occupation Numbers of the States
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The charge density distributions of 10 B nucleus are calculated using the
harmonic oscillator wave functions. Elastic and inelastic electron scattering
longitudinal form factors have been calculated for the similar parity states of 10B
nucleus where a core of 4He is assumed and the remaining particles are
distributed over 3/ 2 1p and 1/ 2 1p orbits which form the model space.
Core-polarization effects are taken into account. Core-polarization effects are
calculated by using Tassie model and gives good agreement with the measured
data.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 13 2022
Journal Name
وقائع المؤتمر العلمي الدولي التاسع / المجلة الامريكية الدولية للعلوم الانسانية والاجتماعية
The Relationship between Job Satisfaction and Organizational Loyalty among Baghdad University Employees in light of Covid- 19 A Descriptive Analytical Study (University of Baghdad as a model)
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The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses' Knowledge and Skills regarding Oxygen Administration Methods at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Mosul City
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Objective: To assess knowledge and skills level regarding oxygen administration methods at p
ediatric teaching hospitals in Mosul City.
Methodology: A descriptive study was applied at pediatric teaching hospitals (Al-Kansaa, and Ibn Al-Atheer) in Mosul City from 8 of October / 2018 till 29 of May / 2019. The selection of the sample was non- probability (Purposive). This sample involved of (52) nurses. The questionnaire was constructed which consists of three parts and provided for nurses. The questionnaire validity was carried out through a panel of experts. To evaluate statistically the reliability of instruments, the pilot study was applied through period from 20– till –31 of January / 2019. Non-randomly (6) nurses from Ibn S

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Pregnant Women Knowledge toward Urinary Tract Infection in Primary Health Care Centers at Kirkuk City
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Abstract
Objective: To assess pregnant women Knowledge toward Urinary Tract Infection at Kirkuk City.


Methodology: A descriptive and analytical study was conducted from 1st of November 2013 and up to the 19 th of August 2014 in five typical primary health care centers at Kirkuk City. A Probability (randomly sample) was used to select the sample of 180 women aged (15-44) years. A questionnaire format was used as a tool for data collection , content validity of the questionnaire achieved through reviewing it by (24) experts in numerous scientific fields and reliability of the questionnaire was determined through a pilot study. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data.

 

Resul

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Ryznar Stability Index for Treated Water of WTPs Located on Al-Karakh Side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Technique
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respe

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Cognitive Conception Anxiety of the University of Baghdad Students
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The rabid development in life and technology arouse the anxiety, stress, and fear of people. Accordingly the maladjustment and deceived conceptions appear in their behaviors which influence their selves and others.
These changes and development in society influence the university students' life, personality, thoughts and behavior. An exceeding in anxiety and fear has negative effect on everyday life activities and. negative effect on both mind and body.
The problem of the study is centered around cognitive conception anxiety of the university students.
The university students have their special importance in society and nation development, therefore many studies search in their personality and the effect of anxiety on them to fi

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
School Refusal Behavior of Primary First Class Pupils in Baghdad
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Objectives: The study aims to assess the school refusal behavior of first class pupils at primary schools and identifying the relationship between the school refusal behavior and some of socio-demographic characteristics for the pupils.

Methodology:  A descriptive-analytic study was initiated from November 1st, 2012 to April 1st, 2013. A random sample of 411 students is selected from a probability stratified sample of 17 primary schools for both sexes in 4 sectors in Baghdad Al-Rasafa and Al-Karkh districts which are selected randomly from first class of primary school. A Self administrative questionnaire (Parents' Version) which constructed by the rese

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 05 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Prevalence of Impacted Maxillary Canine among Iraqi Patients of Al-Basrah City
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Background: Impacted teeth are frequent problem and one of the most affected teeth is the maxillary canine. The early diagnosis of impacted canines by radiographic evaluation is imperative. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of impacted maxillary canines in patients attending the Oral diagnosis and Radiology clinic in College of Dentistry, University of Al-Basrah. Materials and Methods: 1280 patients attending the Oral Diagnosis and Radiology clinic in College of Dentistry University of Al-Basrah, between October 2013 and March 2015 were examined for the study. The age of the patients ranged from 15 to 55 years, with a mean age of 22.2 years. Results: The prevalence for maxillary impacted canines in all the cases was fo

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 22 2018
Journal Name
Association Of Arab Universities Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Assessment of medical solid waste generation rates for teaching hospitals in Baghdad city
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