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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 13 2022
Journal Name
وقائع المؤتمر العلمي الدولي التاسع / المجلة الامريكية الدولية للعلوم الانسانية والاجتماعية
The Relationship between Job Satisfaction and Organizational Loyalty among Baghdad University Employees in light of Covid- 19 A Descriptive Analytical Study (University of Baghdad as a model)
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The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Biochemical & Cellular Archives
Assessment of uric acid in patients of end-stage renal disease with hypertension and diabetic nephropathy and the risk of cardiovascular diseases
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The relationship of hyperuricemia to kidney disease, diabetes, hypertension and the risk of cardiovascular diseases remain controversial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of uric acid (UA) levels to find the higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with end stage renal disease that have diabetic nephropathy (DN), nephropathy with hypertension (NH) and patients with both diabetic nephropathy with hypertension (DNH). This study deals with 115 patients with end-stage renal disease under hemodialysis sub-grouped into 35 patients with (DN), 40 patients with (NH), and 40 patients with (DNH). Some biochemical parameters were determined in the serum of all participants such as HbA1c, fasting blood glucose (FBG), UA, urea,

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 07 2026
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Pharmaceutical And Clinical Research
EVALUATING THE ANTI-INFLAMMATORY ACTIVITY OF ETHYL ACETATE AND METHANOL EXTRACTS OF LORANTHUS EUROPAEUS SEEDS IN RAT MODELS OF EXPERIMENTALLY INDUCED CHRONIC INFLAMMATION: A COMPARATIVE STUDY WITH DEXAMETHASONE
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Objective: Loranthus europaeus is a parasitic plant that lives on the branches of trees. The present study aimed to evaluate the anti-inflammatory effects of two different extracts on chronic inflammation induced by cotton pellets in rats. Methods: Loranthus seed was extracted by maceration with absolute methanol, in which dry Loranthus seeds were triturated in a mortar and macerated with 500 mL of methanol. After 24 h, the mixture was filtered, and the residue was re-extracted. The filtrates were combined and dried under vacuum. The mixture was mixed with 100 mL of distilled water and fractionated by petroleum ether and ethyl acetate using 70 mL × 3 times each. The organic fractions were dried, filtered, and evaporated to dryness.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses' Knowledge and Skills regarding Oxygen Administration Methods at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Mosul City
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Objective: To assess knowledge and skills level regarding oxygen administration methods at p
ediatric teaching hospitals in Mosul City.
Methodology: A descriptive study was applied at pediatric teaching hospitals (Al-Kansaa, and Ibn Al-Atheer) in Mosul City from 8 of October / 2018 till 29 of May / 2019. The selection of the sample was non- probability (Purposive). This sample involved of (52) nurses. The questionnaire was constructed which consists of three parts and provided for nurses. The questionnaire validity was carried out through a panel of experts. To evaluate statistically the reliability of instruments, the pilot study was applied through period from 20– till –31 of January / 2019. Non-randomly (6) nurses from Ibn S

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Coenzyme Q10 Gel in Management of Patients with Chronic Periodontitis (II inter group comparison)
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Background: Anti-oxidants are used as supplements to counteract the over production of free radicals in periodontal disease.Co-Q10 functions as an intercellular antioxidant by acting as a primary scavenger of free radicals (FRs) and reactive oxygen species (ROS), this study aimed to evaluate the effect of intra pocket application of perio Q gel (coenzyme Q10) alone and as adjunct to scaling and root planing on the periodontal clinical parameters in the treatment of patients with chronic periodontitis and compare the better improvement on the clinical periodontal parameters among different treatment modalities at 3 and 6 weeks. Materials and methods: A total of 323 sites with pocket depth (5-8) mm in patients with chronic periodontitis were

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Cognitive Conception Anxiety of the University of Baghdad Students
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The rabid development in life and technology arouse the anxiety, stress, and fear of people. Accordingly the maladjustment and deceived conceptions appear in their behaviors which influence their selves and others.
These changes and development in society influence the university students' life, personality, thoughts and behavior. An exceeding in anxiety and fear has negative effect on everyday life activities and. negative effect on both mind and body.
The problem of the study is centered around cognitive conception anxiety of the university students.
The university students have their special importance in society and nation development, therefore many studies search in their personality and the effect of anxiety on them to fi

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Assessment of Salivary Leptin and Resistin Levels in Type Two Diabetic Patients with Chronic Periodontitis (A Comparative Study)
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Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitusand chronic periodontitis hold a close relationship that has been the focus of many researches. Currently there is an appreciation to the role of adipose tissue-derived substances "the adipokines" in immune-inflammatory responses; also, there is an interest in using the simple non-invasive saliva in diagnosing and linking oral and general health problems. The current study aims to determine the periodontal health status in the chronic periodontitis patients with and without poorly or well controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus, measure the salivary levels of two adipokines "leptin and resistin", pH and flow rate and then correlate between these clinical periodontal, biochemical and physical parameters in eac

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Correlation between Visfatin and Creatine Kinase Levels with Periodontal Health Status of Patients with Coronary Atherosclerosis and Chronic Periodontitis
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Background: Visfatin is a novel adipokine that mainly secreted by visceral adipose tissue, had an important role in inflammation and immune system. Creatine Kinase (CK) which is an enzyme that is involved in energy metabolism, found in large amounts in myocardium, brain and skeletal tissues. This study is carried out To evaluate the periodontal health status of the study groups (chronic periodontitis and chronic periodontitis with coronary atherosclerosis) and control groups, to measure the salivary levels of visfatin and Creatine Kinase in these groups and compare between them, and to determine the correlations between salivary visfatin and Creatine Kinase levels with the periodontal parameters in the three groups. Materials and Methods: e

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 12 2019
Journal Name
Hematology Reports
Studying Anemia of Chronic Disease and Iron Deficiency in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis by Iron Status and Circulating Hepcidin
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Anemia of chronic disease (ACD) and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) are the two most important types of anemia in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Functional iron deficiency in ACD can be attributed to overexpression of the main iron regulatory hormone hepcidin leading to diversion of iron from the circulation into storage sites resulting in iron-restricted erythropoiesis. The aim is to investigate the role of circulating hepcidin and to uncover the frequency of IDA in RA. The study included 51 patients with RA. Complete blood counts, serum iron, total iron binding capacity, ferritin, and hepcidin- 25 were assessed. ACD was found in 37.3% of patients, IDA in 11.8%, and combined (ACD/IDA) in 17.6%. Serum hepcidin was higher in ACD than in con

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of Interleukin-31 Serum Levels in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis with and without Uremic Pruritus
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الخلاصة: الحكة اليوريمية لدى مرضى غسيل الكلى يؤثر على أكثر من 40٪ من المرضى. وربما ترتبط الحكة المستمرة بمستويات عالية من الإنترلوكين 31. الاهداف: النظر إلى مستويات مصل إنترلوكين 31 لدى مرضى غسيل الكلى المصابين بمرض الكلى في المرحلة النهائية، سواء مع أو بدون حكة يوريمية. النتائج: لم يكن مستوى المصل [الوسيط (] لـ IL-31 في المرضى الذين يعانون من الحكة اليوريميةأو بدون حكة في عينة مصل ما قبل غسيل الكلى مختلفًا بشكل م

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