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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial contrast of the slums in the unity of the new municipal of Baghdad
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The slums one of the main problem plaguing the city of Baghdad in general and
the unity of municipality of New Baghdad, especially, where the characteristics of the study
area a prominent role in population growth and the emergence of slums where a private,
although the region suffer from the housing crisis is the lack of the number of housing units
compared to the number of families in which, With high land prices and the level of rent
which was accompanied by the absence of the law, which was followed by the year 2003, has
become the study area and one of the most municipalities of the city of Baghdad Contain
slums which took fills abandoned buildings and acquires vacant land agricultural ones and
allocated to d

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 09 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Early Detection of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction in Asymptomatic Patients with Chronic Aortic Regurgitation by two Dimensional Speckle Tracking Echocardiography
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Background: Early detection of subclinical left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction is crucial and could influence patients' prognosis by aiding the clinician to candidate patients for better management.

Objective: To detect early LV systolic dysfunction in asymptomatic patient with chronic aortic regurgitation by two dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography.

 Methods:  Sixty one asymptomatic patients with chronic aortic regurgitation, with no ischemic heart diseases (by coronary angiography) or conductive heart diseases, no diabetes mellitus, no hypertension, and no other valvular heart diseases (group 1) and fifty age and sex-matched healthy subjects (

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Publication Date
Thu May 08 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Antibacterial Effect of Aqueous and Alcoholic Propolis Extracts on Aggregatibacter Actinomycetemcomitans in Patients with Chronic Periodontitis (An In-vitro Study)
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Background: Propolis has received great interest because of its wide range antimicrobial activity. Propolis also called (bee glue) due to its collection by (Apismellifera) honeybees from various plants resinous substance. The aim of this study was to determine the antibacterial effect of propolis extracts (aqueous and alcoholic) on anaerobic periodontal pathogen namely Aggregatibacteractinomycetemcomitans. Materials and Methods: Strains of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans wasisolated from pockets of systemically healthy patients aged between 35-55 years old suffering from chronic periodontitis with pocket depths of 5-6 mm, the bacteria cultured on special blood Agar plates solid media. Propolis was extracted by using water and alcohol.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Measurement of some Biochemical Values in Hemodialysis Patients in Baghdad
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One hundred of dialysis patients' mean age ( 51.18±8.28) years and one hundred healthy control group , where carried out  from different hospitals of Baghdad city , during the period between November /2012 until March/2013. Blood samples were collected before dialyzing for estimation   the concentration of urea, creatinine, uric acid, random blood sugar , calcium and cholesterol by enzymatic method detected spectrophotometerically.

The  aim of this  study is   to determine concentration of urea, creatinine, uric acid, RBS , calcium and cholesterol in hemodialysis patients in Baghdad . The results showed that there were  highly significant increases (P<0.01) in the mean of creatinine ,

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Association between Allelic Variations of -174G/C Polymorphism of Interleukin-6 Gene and Chronic Kidney Disease-Mineral and Bone Disorder in Iraqi Patients
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This study designed to examine association between-174G/C polymorphism of interleukin-6 gene and phosphate, calcium, vitamin D3, and parathyroid hormone levels in Iraqi patient with chronic kidney disease on maintenance hemodialysis. Seventy chronic renal failure patients (patients group) and 20 healthy subjects (control group) were genotyped for interleukin-6 polymorphism and genotyping was performed by conventional polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. No significant differences in phosphate levels were observed in patients and control with different interleukin-6 genotypes. Control had non-significant differences in calcium levels, while patients with GG and CG genotypes displayed significant e

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses' Knowledge and Skills regarding Oxygen Administration Methods at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Mosul City
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Objective: To assess knowledge and skills level regarding oxygen administration methods at p
ediatric teaching hospitals in Mosul City.
Methodology: A descriptive study was applied at pediatric teaching hospitals (Al-Kansaa, and Ibn Al-Atheer) in Mosul City from 8 of October / 2018 till 29 of May / 2019. The selection of the sample was non- probability (Purposive). This sample involved of (52) nurses. The questionnaire was constructed which consists of three parts and provided for nurses. The questionnaire validity was carried out through a panel of experts. To evaluate statistically the reliability of instruments, the pilot study was applied through period from 20– till –31 of January / 2019. Non-randomly (6) nurses from Ibn S

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
The Journal Of The Acoustical Society Of America
Underdetermined reverberant acoustic source separation using weighted full-rank nonnegative tensor models
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In this paper, a fusion of K models of full-rank weighted nonnegative tensor factor two-dimensional deconvolution (K-wNTF2D) is proposed to separate the acoustic sources that have been mixed in an underdetermined reverberant environment. The model is adapted in an unsupervised manner under the hybrid framework of the generalized expectation maximization and multiplicative update algorithms. The derivation of the algorithm and the development of proposed full-rank K-wNTF2D will be shown. The algorithm also encodes a set of variable sparsity parameters derived from Gibbs distribution into the K-wNTF2D model. This optimizes each sub-model in K-wNTF2D with the required sparsity to model the time-varying variances of the sources in the s

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Water Movement through Soil under Drip Irrigation using Different Hydraulic Soil Models
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Drip irrigation is one of the conservative irrigation techniques since it implies supplying water directly on the soil through the emitter; it can supply water and fertilizer directly into the root zone. An equation to estimate the wetted area in unsaturated soil is taking into calculating the water absorption by roots is simulated numerically using HYDRUS (2D/3D) software. In this paper, HYDRUS comprises analytical types of the estimate of different soil hydraulic properties. Used one soil type, sandy loam, with three types of crops; (corn, tomato, and sweet sorghum), different drip discharge, different initial soil moisture content was assumed, and different time durations. The relative error for the different hydrauli

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Ryznar Stability Index for Treated Water of WTPs Located on Al-Karakh Side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Technique
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In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI) of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side) in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3) have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad) including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI) with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respe

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Pregnant Women Knowledge toward Urinary Tract Infection in Primary Health Care Centers at Kirkuk City
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Abstract
Objective: To assess pregnant women Knowledge toward Urinary Tract Infection at Kirkuk City.


Methodology: A descriptive and analytical study was conducted from 1st of November 2013 and up to the 19 th of August 2014 in five typical primary health care centers at Kirkuk City. A Probability (randomly sample) was used to select the sample of 180 women aged (15-44) years. A questionnaire format was used as a tool for data collection , content validity of the questionnaire achieved through reviewing it by (24) experts in numerous scientific fields and reliability of the questionnaire was determined through a pilot study. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data.

 

Resul

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