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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Amygdalin (B17) and Cucurbita pepo (Pumpkin seed) Activity Against Blastocystis from Diarrheic Patients in Baghdad, Iraq: in Vitro Study
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Blastocystis is a ubiquitous human and animal protozoa that inhabit the gastrointestinal tract. Metronidazole is considered the standard drug for the treatment of Blastocystis infection; however, there is growing evidence of treatment failure, hazardous side effects, and appearance of strains resistant to metronidazole. In the last era, many studies have been implicated in the quest for new treatments for Blastocystis infection, especially natural products. Attention has been focused on the effect of Amygdalin (B17) and pumpkin seed on eradicating parasitic infections. The current work was built up to explore the in vitro efficacy of two natural compounds, Amygdalin (B17) and pumpkin seeds against

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 28 2022
Journal Name
Gsc Advanced Research And Reviews
Distribution and seasonal spread of zooplankton in Iraqi waters
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A summary of zooplankton research done in Peruvian marine waters is presented. We first provide a brief overview of the evolution of zooplankton studies off Peru before reviewing zooplankton biodiversity, regional distribution, seasonal and interannual fluctuation, trophodynamics, secondary production, and modeling are some of these topics. We evaluate research on various meroplankton, macroplankton, mesoplankton, and microplankton groups and provide a list of species from both published and unpublished sources. Three regional zooplankton groups have been identified: A shelf group on the continental shelf dominated by Acartia tonsa and Centropages brachiatus; A slope group on the continental shelf with siphonophores, bivalves, foramin

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of Physical Chemical and Biological Characteristics of Underground Wells in Badra City, Iraq
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The quality of groundwater should be improved by keeping safe water sources from contaminants in protective way by doing regular measuring and checkup before it supplied for usage. Private Wells do not receive the same services that wells supplying the public do. Well owners are responsible for protecting their drinking water. This work was carried out in Badra city, Iraq from December 2017 to May 2018, six wells water were investigated to determine the general characteristics of wells as well as studying the effect of environmental factors on the quality of water. The average of six wells were eleven parameters that is out of permissible limits were EC, Sal., Alk., TH, TDS, Na, Ca, Cl, SO4, Fe, Zn (4402-5183 /cm, 2.76-3.9 ppt

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Extent of Implementing the Strategy of Solid Waste Management in Baquba City - Poll search
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The research aims to identify the reality of the management strategy followed in the treatment of solid waste in the city of Baquba, and what strategies are used to treat solid waste, and the extent of the application of these strategies, through personal interviews with leading cadres in the Directorate of Baquba Municipality, their assistants and heads of departments, they numbered (55) Individuals. The descriptive method was adopted through a questionnaire prepared to measure the extent of the implementation of the strategy of solid waste management in the city of Baquba and using statistical tools including (arithmetic mean, standard deviation, relative importance, the gap). The research reac

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 23 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Recent Status of Prevalence of Rodents Infestation in Baghdad City
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The study was carried out for  the period    March 2007 -

January 2008 , in order to describe the status of the environmental sanitation and the prevalence of rodents infestation in nine quarters in Baghdad city . The results showed that the PI varied between 40 -

100% in garbage accumulation places and between 33.3 - 100% in the

other sites (houses , shops , bakeries and book shops) . It was noticed that, no rodents control activities were carried out from 2003 till now because of the unsuitable conditions a especially in Baghdad city . The level of ES was bad in general according to three degrees of evaluation (weak , mid and good)

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 08 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Nutritional Status of Pregnant Adolescents in Baghdad City
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Objectives: The study aims to assess the nutritional status, identify nutrition-related health problems and
find out the relationships between nutritional status and demographic characteristics of the pregnant
adolescents in Baghdad City.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out from April/20/2009 to June/30/2009 through a "Nonprobability"
purposive sample of (196) pregnant adolescents their age between (13–19) years who attend (14)
primary health care centers in Baghdad City seeking for antenatal care. The data were collected by the
investigator who interviewed the pregnant adolescents and filled out the constructed questionnaire formats
which designed for the purpose of the study. Internal consistency of

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 12 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Calculated the diffuse and direct parts of global solar radiation in Baghdad city for the period (1983-2005) depending on clearness index by applying the two world models of Liu -Jordan
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In this paper solar radiation was studied over a region of Baghdad (Latitude 33.3o and longitude 44.4o). The two parts of global solar radiation: diffuse and direct solar radiation were estimated depending on the clearance index of measured data (Average Monthly mean global solar radiation). Metrological data of measured (average monthly mean diffuse and direct solar radiation) were used to comparison the results and show the agreement between them. Results are determined by applying Liu and Jordan two models (1960). Excel 2007program is used in calculation, graphics and comparison the results.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 28 2024
Journal Name
Nigerian Journal Of Parasitology
Evaluation of hormones and other biochemical parameters among chronic liver disease patients infected with Toxoplasma gondii
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This study was conducted in Baghdad, Iraq from December 2021 to May 2022. The goal was to determine the effect of Toxoplasma gondii on liver function by examining the relationship between Toxoplasma infection and hormones. One hundred and twenty male patients with Chronic liver disease (CLD) (age:14-75 years) and 120 control males (age: 24-70 years) participated in this study. Serum samples were taken from all individuals and were then analysed for anti-Toxoplasma antibodies. Hormonal tests were conducted for all participants which included (Cortisol, testosterone, prolactin, insulin, and thyroid-stimulating hormone TSH). Biochemical tests included (Prothrombin time PT, international normalized ratio INR and albumin); liver enzymes

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Generalized Pareto Survival Models to Estimation Optimal Survival Time for Myocardial Infarction Patients
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The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 13 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measurements of radon, thoron and their progeny concentrations using twin cup dosimeter for indoor Al-Madaan city – Baghdad – Iraq
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In this study, the activity concentrations of indoor radon, thoron
and their progeny have been measured in air for 61 different
locations of Al-Maddan city using twin cup dosimeter. Furthermore,
some useful parameters concerning the health hazards have been
estimated; working level month (WLM), annual effective dose (Eff),
and excess lung cancer per million person per year (ELC).The results
show that the values of radon gas levels in the investigated districts
varied from 56.28 to 194.43Bq/m3with an overall average value
132.96Bq/m3, while 0.313 to 1.085 for WLM with an overall average
0.740, respectively. The value of Eff and ELC have been found to
vary from 1.420 to 4.918 mSv/y with an overall average valu

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