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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Efficiency of Infrastructure Services in Khor Al-Zubair City (Iraq) Firas Sami Abdulaziz Alqatrani1 and Amira
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The aim of the research is to demonstrate the concept, characteristics, efficiency and adequacy of infrastructure in Khor Al-Zubair, as it represents an important benchmark for judging the development of the city. The researchers thus aim to measure the efficiency, adequacy and personal impression of each service in Khor Al-Zubair city and its residential neighborhoods. To meet this objective, the researchers used the descriptive and analytical approach that involves randomly distributing a questionnaire with specific questions to the neighbors of the city. The study has reached a set of results and recommendations that contribute to addressing the problems to the sector of infrastructure services in the city, such as: the per capita sha

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Surface Roughness and Material Removal Rate in Electrochemical Machining Using Taguchi Method
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Electrochemical machining is one of the widely used non-conventional machining processes to machine complex and difficult shapes for electrically conducting materials, such as super alloys, Ti-alloys, alloy steel, tool steel and stainless steel.  Use of optimal ECM process conditions can significantly reduce the ECM operating, tooling, and maintenance cost and can produce components with higher accuracy. This paper studies the effect of process parameters on surface roughness (Ra) and material removal rate (MRR), and the optimization of process conditions in ECM. Experiments were conducted based on Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array (OA) with three process parameters viz. current, electrolyte concentration, and inter-electrode gap. Sig

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical testing mediation in structural equations models variables with practical application
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Abstract:
       This study is studied one method of estimation and testing parameters mediating variables in a structural equations model SEM is causal steps method, in order to identify and know the variables that have indirect effects by estimating and testing mediation variables parameters by the above way and then applied to Iraq Women Integrated Social and Health Survey (I-WISH) for year 2011 from the Ministry of planning - Central statistical organization to identify if the  variables having the effect of mediation in the model by the step causal methods by using AMOS program V.23, it
was the independent variable X represents a phenomenon studied (cultural case of the

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Momentum Ranking Function of Z-Numbers and its Application to Game Theory
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After Zadeh introduced the concept of z-number scientists in various fields have shown keen interest in applying this concept in various applications. In applications of z-numbers, to compare two z-numbers, a ranking procedure is essential.  While a few ranking functions have been already proposed in the literature there is a need to evolve some more good ranking functions.  In this paper, a novel ranking function for z-numbers is proposed- "the Momentum Ranking Function"(MRF). Also, game theoretic problems where the payoff matrix elements are z-numbers are considered and the application of the momentum ranking function in such problems is demonstrated.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 30 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effects of light smoking on salivary levels of alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin in chronic periodontitis patients
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Background: Chronic periodontitis is an inflammatory disease that affects the supporting tissues of the teeth and it’s common among adults. Smoking is an important risk factor for periodontitis induces alveolar bone loss. Alkaline phosphatase enzyme is involved in the destruction of the human periodontium. It is produced by many cells such as polymorphonuclear leukocytes, osteoblasts, macrophages and fibroblasts within the area of the periodontium and gingival crevice. Osteocalcin is one of the most abundant matrix proteins found in bones and the only matrix protein synthesized exclusively there. Smaller Osteocalcin fragments are found in areas of bone remodeling and are actually degradation products of the bone matrix.The purpose of

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 03 2013
Journal Name
J. Of University Of Anbar For Pure Science
Determination of thyroid hormone levels in the serum of Non- dialyzed patients with chronic renal failure
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Thyroid hormones, triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxin (T4) play an important role in growth, development, and physiology of the kidney. The kidney has a central role in metabolism and clearance of these hormones as well as thyroid – stimulating hormone (TSH). Chronic renal failure (CRF) is a state of irreversible deceleration in renal function results in alterations in internal milieu, which affects the synthesis and secretory rate of hormones. To evaluate the thyroid hormone levels in non-dialyzed patients with chronic renal failure (CRF); 24 patients with CRF aged 30-70 years, mean±S.d. (48.458 ± 13.569) and 48 healthy volunteers who served as controls aged 30-70 years (43.104 ± 12.387) were studied for their thyroid function status u

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Six-Sigma to measure the quality performance of the Department of Statistics-University of Baghdad-Case Study
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Abstract

            This research was to provide a definition of quality, dimensions and concepts, whether traditional or modern concept, as well as review the dimensions of quality in higher education and vision and mission with the overall objectives of the Statistics Department.

         After reviewing quality goals and purposes achieved as well as the mechanisms used to achieve them. and use standard Six-Sigma as one of the methodologies used in quality with the historical roots of using this methodology and methods applied and their definitions t

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 11 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Assessment of Health Beliefs Among Iraqi Breast Cancer Patients in Baghdad using either Tamoxifen or Trastuzumab
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Breast cancer is the most diagnosed form of malignant tumour in Iraqi women. Tamoxifen and trastuzumab are highly effective adjuvant therapy for breast cancer.

This study's objectives were to define the patient's belief in tamoxifen or trastuzumab when used as adjuvant therapy and to determine the variation in belief between the two medications in a sample of Iraqi breast cancer patients.

The cross-section survey was conducted using the BMQ-Specific questionnaire. Ninety-seven participants (sixty-seven tamoxifen, thirty trastuzumab) participated in this study.

The mean of specific-necessity scale for tamoxifen was (3.7) and for trastuzumab (4). The findings showed a high necessity for both medicines, and there wer

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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
the best way to deal with the center of the ancient city of Najaf
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The historic cities in the Arab and Islamic world (including the cities of the holy shrines in Iraq) suffer from many and varied problems and most notably it is clear in its origin functional structure. It had been transformed from a basic place to live for a few thousand of the population to the center or part of the main center of large city populations of more than one million. Functional structure of the ancient city have been change with the beginning of the twentieth century and accelerated rate of change in the second half of the last century. The research aims to analyze the problems of the historic centers of holy cities and analyze the methods of dealing with these problems, leading to discrimination method could be the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
CONTROL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN FARM ANIMALS IN IRAQ: CONTROL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN FARM ANIMALS IN IRAQ
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ABSTRACT

              Agricultural production, food security and safety, public health animal welfare, access to markets and alleviation of rural poverty have been achieved by controlling on veterinary services to prevent animal disease. World organization for animal health guidelines focus on controlling of animal disease which depends on good governance and veterinary services quality. The aim of veterinary services is controlling and preventing animal disease some of other aspects; it's responsibility of early detection, rapid response to outbreaks of emerging or re-emerging animal disease, optimizing quality and effectiveness of disease

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