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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Ceramic Art and Urban Planning for the city of Baghdad
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Ceramic art associated with urban growth in the cities, it overlapped with architectural construction, the increasing of population, urban growth, knowledge, and civilization was considered ceramic arts as an important aesthetically architecturally complement in the cities, including those in the squares and architectural institutions in the city of Baghdad .the title (Ceramic Art and Urban Planning in the City of Baghdad) the problem was its wonders : 1- Does ceramic monuments suited their locations in the city of Baghdad with the architectural planning urban of the city.2- Does the recipient interacted with these monuments and the reasons of their existence. Then the aim: knowing the relationship of the ceramic monuments with the urban

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
5 year-analysis of reported dog bites in Baghdad city
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Background: Animal bites in humans are an important public health problem. Most of these bites are dog bites. Dog bites in humans are a complex problem embracing public health and animal welfare, both in developed and developing nations. .
Al-kindy Col Med J Vol.8 No.2 2012 P: 151
Objectives: in order to estimate the magnitude of the problem and to understand the epidemiological characteristics of dog bite victims registered in Baghdad city regarding their age, sex, number of registered dog bite victims per month and year along the studied period ( 2006-2010) and also to sniff out any seasonal variation in dog bite attacks .
Methods: A across-sectional study was carried out during January (2011), in the Anti-Rabies clinic of (Pa

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
CONTROL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN FARM ANIMALS IN IRAQ: CONTROL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN FARM ANIMALS IN IRAQ
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ABSTRACT

              Agricultural production, food security and safety, public health animal welfare, access to markets and alleviation of rural poverty have been achieved by controlling on veterinary services to prevent animal disease. World organization for animal health guidelines focus on controlling of animal disease which depends on good governance and veterinary services quality. The aim of veterinary services is controlling and preventing animal disease some of other aspects; it's responsibility of early detection, rapid response to outbreaks of emerging or re-emerging animal disease, optimizing quality and effectiveness of disease

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Traditional and molecular methods for diagnosing bacterial meningitis in Erbil city, Iraq
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Bacterial meningitis is a leading cause of illness and death worldwide. It is crucial for clinical and public health care, as well as disease control, to identify the meningitis-causing agent promptly. Between June 2021-February 2022, a total of 100 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood samples were collected from suspected cases of meningitis admitted to Raparin Paediatric Teaching Hospital, Erbil city-Iraq. Cytochemical, cultural, and biochemical tests were conducted, and confirmed by molecular techniques. Bacterial culture findings were positive in 7% of CSF samples and just one positive among blood samples. The most common pathogens found by cultural characteristics and VITEK 2 Compact System were Staphylococcus sciuri in two

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Community Medicine
Leg alopecia in Patients with Coronary Heart Diseases in comparison with Healthy Control in Adult Males.
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KE Sharquie, JR Al-Rawi, AA Noaimi, RA Al-Khammasi, Iraqi Journal of Community Medicine, 2018

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Comparison of three interpolation methods for the average monthly temperature in the south of Iraqi zone
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This study focuses on evaluating the suitability of three interpolation methods in terms of their accuracy at climate data for some provinces of south of Iraq. Two data sets of maximum and minimum temperature in February 2008 from nine meteorological stations located in the south of Iraq using three interpolation methods. ArcGIS is used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using IDW, ordinary kriging, and spline. Four statistical methods are applied to analyze the results obtained from three interpolation methods. These methods are RMSE, RMSE as a percentage of the mean, Model efficiency (E) and Bias, which showed that the ordinary krigingis the best for this data from other methods by the results that have b

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 28 2024
Journal Name
Nigerian Journal Of Parasitology
Evaluation of hormones and other biochemical parameters among chronic liver disease patients infected with Toxoplasma gondii
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This study was conducted in Baghdad, Iraq from December 2021 to May 2022. The goal was to determine the effect of Toxoplasma gondii on liver function by examining the relationship between Toxoplasma infection and hormones. One hundred and twenty male patients with Chronic liver disease (CLD) (age:14-75 years) and 120 control males (age: 24-70 years) participated in this study. Serum samples were taken from all individuals and were then analysed for anti-Toxoplasma antibodies. Hormonal tests were conducted for all participants which included (Cortisol, testosterone, prolactin, insulin, and thyroid-stimulating hormone TSH). Biochemical tests included (Prothrombin time PT, international normalized ratio INR and albumin); liver enzymes

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Generalized Pareto Survival Models to Estimation Optimal Survival Time for Myocardial Infarction Patients
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The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The cartographic representation of vertical home in Baghdad government
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The cartographic representation of geographical phenomenon considers the essential base in geographical analysis since as it supports the vertical house which is apartment houses consist of apartments which represent civil phenomenon , the aim of this study is to project the rule of cartographic representation methods in geographical analysis and make comparison in economic and social aspects for two approaches , the vertical and construction building methods.
The expand of city horizontally represent a problem in itself because it leads to loss of civil lands and overpass the agricultural lands as a result ,the ratio of habitation of land usage is so large in comparison with another usages of lands of the cities ; therefore ; many co

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Computers, Materials & Continua
Credit Card Fraud Detection Using Improved Deep Learning Models
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