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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Momentum Ranking Function of Z-Numbers and its Application to Game Theory
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After Zadeh introduced the concept of z-number scientists in various fields have shown keen interest in applying this concept in various applications. In applications of z-numbers, to compare two z-numbers, a ranking procedure is essential.  While a few ranking functions have been already proposed in the literature there is a need to evolve some more good ranking functions.  In this paper, a novel ranking function for z-numbers is proposed- "the Momentum Ranking Function"(MRF). Also, game theoretic problems where the payoff matrix elements are z-numbers are considered and the application of the momentum ranking function in such problems is demonstrated.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 28 2024
Journal Name
Nigerian Journal Of Parasitology
Evaluation of hormones and other biochemical parameters among chronic liver disease patients infected with Toxoplasma gondii
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This study was conducted in Baghdad, Iraq from December 2021 to May 2022. The goal was to determine the effect of Toxoplasma gondii on liver function by examining the relationship between Toxoplasma infection and hormones. One hundred and twenty male patients with Chronic liver disease (CLD) (age:14-75 years) and 120 control males (age: 24-70 years) participated in this study. Serum samples were taken from all individuals and were then analysed for anti-Toxoplasma antibodies. Hormonal tests were conducted for all participants which included (Cortisol, testosterone, prolactin, insulin, and thyroid-stimulating hormone TSH). Biochemical tests included (Prothrombin time PT, international normalized ratio INR and albumin); liver enzymes

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The cartographic representation of vertical home in Baghdad government
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The cartographic representation of geographical phenomenon considers the essential base in geographical analysis since as it supports the vertical house which is apartment houses consist of apartments which represent civil phenomenon , the aim of this study is to project the rule of cartographic representation methods in geographical analysis and make comparison in economic and social aspects for two approaches , the vertical and construction building methods.
The expand of city horizontally represent a problem in itself because it leads to loss of civil lands and overpass the agricultural lands as a result ,the ratio of habitation of land usage is so large in comparison with another usages of lands of the cities ; therefore ; many co

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
البواكير البواكير الأولى لبلدية مدينة بغداد
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 Medicine in the Al-Jahiliya was a primitive medicine confined to experiments inherited among individuals. The Arabs were interested in the work of Greek doctors and ancient Romans, such as Hippocrates, Galenos and Descaridos, whom the Syriacs had transferred to their language in a school. Who fled to escape the persecution of the Byzantine emperors of the Nestorian doctrine which they embraced. With the beginning of the Abbasid period,

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Generalized Pareto Survival Models to Estimation Optimal Survival Time for Myocardial Infarction Patients
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The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Parents' Efficacy for Child Healthy Weight Behavior in Elementary Schools in Hilla City
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Objectives: The study aims to (1) Assess the parents' efficacy for child healthy weight behavior. (2) Identify the difference in parents’ efficacy for child healthy weight behavior between the groups of parent’s gender, family’s socioeconomic status, child’s gender, and child’s birth order, (3) Find out the relationship between parents’ age, child’s age, child’s body mass index, family’s socioeconomic status, the number of children in the family and parents’ efficacy for child healthy weight behavior.
Methodology: A descriptive correlational study is conducted for the period from November 11th, 2018 to March 25th, 2019 to assess the parents' efficacy for child healthy weight behavior. The study was carried-out in (

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 06 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Microbial Contamination in Some Commercial Biscuits in Baghdad City
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This study has been conducted to know the level of microbial ( bacteria and fungi) contamination in 5 types of biscuits from local markets of Baghdad city. Fifty samples (ten sample for each kind of biscuit) were studed,Two are local,others are Iranian,Turkish,and Holandies. The following results have been achieved :1. The highest number of bacteria was 21.6×103 cell/g in Iranian biscuit while the lowest number was 14.3× 103 cell/g in local biscuit No.1 . The highest number of fungi was 16×103 colony/g and the lowest number was 5.3×103 colony/g in the Iranian and the local biscuit No.1,respectively.2. Staphylococcus aureus was the major bacteria appeared at highest level of 100% in Turkish biscuit. The lowest percentage was found in H

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
Obesity Prevalence in Primary School Children in Baghdad City
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 06 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Pharmaceutical Sciences
Teenage pregnancy. Prevalence and adverse outcomes in Baghdad city
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Pregnancy at an early age of life is a major challenge. The consequences of this problem have an impact on the quality of life of the young mother and her family, and determines an important risk for her offspring. The son of a teenage mother has, in general, greater risks than that of a mother of more than 20 years. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence and outcome of teenage pregnancy. A descriptive data base study was conducted at Al-Elwia Maternity Teaching hospital in the period from January 1, 2019 to the end of June 2019 within the age between 12 and 19 years old. The mean age of the mother was 17.4 ±1.5 years. The mean age of the father was 23.9 ± 5.7 years with (69.5%) with Vaginal delivery and most of the

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
WATER QUALITY INDICES FOR TIGRIS RIVER IN BAGHDAD CITY
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Due to the deterioration of water quality within the last few years because of the increase of water consumption and the waste water production and disposal into the river The water quality in both surface and ground water resources was negatively affected .The concept of water quality index is used as a tool for water quality classification in Tigris River within Baghdad City .Twenty two parameters of pollution were selected to measure the water quality indices of Tigris river within Baghdad city .Those parameters were measured during (2000-2004)as average monthly values ,three water treatment plants were selected out of the eight water treatment plants that exist along the river.Al Kharkh water treatment plant to reflect the water quality

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