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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
5 year-analysis of reported dog bites in Baghdad city
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Background: Animal bites in humans are an important public health problem. Most of these bites are dog bites. Dog bites in humans are a complex problem embracing public health and animal welfare, both in developed and developing nations. .
Al-kindy Col Med J Vol.8 No.2 2012 P: 149
Objectives: in order to estimate the magnitude of the problem and to understand the epidemiological characteristics of dog bite victims registered in Baghdad city regarding their age, sex, number of registered dog bite victims per month and year along the studied period ( 2006-2010) and also to sniff out any seasonal variation in dog bite attacks .
Methods: A across-sectional study was carried out during January (2011), in the Anti-Rabies clinic of (Pa

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Ceramic Art and Urban Planning for the city of Baghdad
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Ceramic art associated with urban growth in the cities, it overlapped with architectural construction, the increasing of population, urban growth, knowledge, and civilization was considered ceramic arts as an important aesthetically architecturally complement in the cities, including those in the squares and architectural institutions in the city of Baghdad .the title (Ceramic Art and Urban Planning in the City of Baghdad) the problem was its wonders : 1- Does ceramic monuments suited their locations in the city of Baghdad with the architectural planning urban of the city.2- Does the recipient interacted with these monuments and the reasons of their existence. Then the aim: knowing the relationship of the ceramic monuments with the urban

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Computational Innovation And Analytics (jcia)
PERFORMANCE MEASURE OF MULTIPLE-CHANNEL QUEUEING SYSTEMS WITH IMPRECISE DATA USING GRADED MEAN INTEGRATION FOR TRAPEZOIDAL AND HEXAGONAL FUZZY NUMBERS
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In this paper, a procedure to establish the different performance measures in terms of crisp value is proposed for two classes of arrivals and multiple channel queueing models, where both arrival and service rate are fuzzy numbers. The main idea is to convert the arrival rates and service rates under fuzzy queues into crisp queues by using graded mean integration approach, which can be represented as median rule number. Hence, we apply the crisp values obtained to establish the performance measure of conventional multiple queueing models. This procedure has shown its effectiveness when incorporated with many types of membership functions in solving queuing problems. Two numerical illustrations are presented to determine the validity of the

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The cartographic representation of vertical home in Baghdad government
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The cartographic representation of geographical phenomenon considers the essential base in geographical analysis since as it supports the vertical house which is apartment houses consist of apartments which represent civil phenomenon , the aim of this study is to project the rule of cartographic representation methods in geographical analysis and make comparison in economic and social aspects for two approaches , the vertical and construction building methods.
The expand of city horizontally represent a problem in itself because it leads to loss of civil lands and overpass the agricultural lands as a result ,the ratio of habitation of land usage is so large in comparison with another usages of lands of the cities ; therefore ; many co

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of Salivary Total Antioxidants Capacity Levels of Patients with Chronic Periodontitis in Comparison to Healthy Control
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Background: Chronic periodontitis (CP) is greatly prevalent condition of inflammatory behavior. Salivary biomarker total antioxidants capacity (T-AOC) status, may be related to both periodontal condition and oral hygiene. Aims of the study: To assess the level of salivary T-AOC of patients with chronic periodontitis in comparison to healthy control and to correlate between the level of this marker with the clinical periodontal parameters (plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP), probing pocket depth (PPD), and clinical attachment level (CAL)). Materials and Methods: Ninety subjects of males and females with an age ranged between (35-55) years were participated in this study. Participants were divided into two grou

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Evaluation of total oxidant status and antioxidant capacity in sera of acute-and chronic-renal failure patients
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Abstract<p>Renal failure is a disease of the kidney, in which the renal excretory function is failed to process due to depression of the GFR. Renal failure is divided into acute and chronic depending on the period of the disease. The study was designed to investigate the level of oxidative stress in RF patients. Seventy-five subjects had enrolled in the study, who divided into three groups equally, in which they are healthy control, ARF patients, and CRF patients. The results had shown a significant <italic>(P<0.01)</italic> increase in the level of TOS for RF patients when compared with control. Also, a significant difference in the level of TOS has been observed between ARF and CR</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Jul 28 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Levels of Trace and Essential Elements in Sera of Chronic Renal FAilure Patients Before and After Dialysis
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        This study included a group of (15) chronic renal failure patients (CRF), an addition group of (15) healthy individual  was concluded in this study for control. Trace and essential elements ( Zn, Cu , Ca , K , Na) were measured by atomic absorption and flam analyzer in sera of CRF patients pre and post dialysis and control groups. The results showed a significant ( p < 0.05) increase in Zn and k+ concentration in sera of CRF patients pre and post dialysis compared to the control group. While there is a significant decrease for copper concentration in sera of CRF patients pre and post dialysis compared to the control group.       There was no significant alte

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
البواكير البواكير الأولى لبلدية مدينة بغداد
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 Medicine in the Al-Jahiliya was a primitive medicine confined to experiments inherited among individuals. The Arabs were interested in the work of Greek doctors and ancient Romans, such as Hippocrates, Galenos and Descaridos, whom the Syriacs had transferred to their language in a school. Who fled to escape the persecution of the Byzantine emperors of the Nestorian doctrine which they embraced. With the beginning of the Abbasid period,

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Forecasting in international logos' design styles
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Forecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Comparison of three interpolation methods for the average monthly temperature in the south of Iraqi zone
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This study focuses on evaluating the suitability of three interpolation methods in terms of their accuracy at climate data for some provinces of south of Iraq. Two data sets of maximum and minimum temperature in February 2008 from nine meteorological stations located in the south of Iraq using three interpolation methods. ArcGIS is used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using IDW, ordinary kriging, and spline. Four statistical methods are applied to analyze the results obtained from three interpolation methods. These methods are RMSE, RMSE as a percentage of the mean, Model efficiency (E) and Bias, which showed that the ordinary krigingis the best for this data from other methods by the results that have b

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