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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Comparison of three interpolation methods for the average monthly temperature in the south of Iraqi zone
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This study focuses on evaluating the suitability of three interpolation methods in terms of their accuracy at climate data for some provinces of south of Iraq. Two data sets of maximum and minimum temperature in February 2008 from nine meteorological stations located in the south of Iraq using three interpolation methods. ArcGIS is used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using IDW, ordinary kriging, and spline. Four statistical methods are applied to analyze the results obtained from three interpolation methods. These methods are RMSE, RMSE as a percentage of the mean, Model efficiency (E) and Bias, which showed that the ordinary krigingis the best for this data from other methods by the results that have b

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of Salivary Total Antioxidants Capacity Levels of Patients with Chronic Periodontitis in Comparison to Healthy Control
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Background: Chronic periodontitis (CP) is greatly prevalent condition of inflammatory behavior. Salivary biomarker total antioxidants capacity (T-AOC) status, may be related to both periodontal condition and oral hygiene. Aims of the study: To assess the level of salivary T-AOC of patients with chronic periodontitis in comparison to healthy control and to correlate between the level of this marker with the clinical periodontal parameters (plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP), probing pocket depth (PPD), and clinical attachment level (CAL)). Materials and Methods: Ninety subjects of males and females with an age ranged between (35-55) years were participated in this study. Participants were divided into two grou

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Evaluation of total oxidant status and antioxidant capacity in sera of acute-and chronic-renal failure patients
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Abstract<p>Renal failure is a disease of the kidney, in which the renal excretory function is failed to process due to depression of the GFR. Renal failure is divided into acute and chronic depending on the period of the disease. The study was designed to investigate the level of oxidative stress in RF patients. Seventy-five subjects had enrolled in the study, who divided into three groups equally, in which they are healthy control, ARF patients, and CRF patients. The results had shown a significant <italic>(P<0.01)</italic> increase in the level of TOS for RF patients when compared with control. Also, a significant difference in the level of TOS has been observed between ARF and CR</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Married population of Baghdad (The study of the POPULATION geography)
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The study found a number of results. The most prominent were the low married during the years of the study in 1997-2012. The study also showed the level of administrative units that the percentage of widows and single rise in urban and rural decline. This is due to the different nature of urban and rural society of the behavior and social habits and traditions.As the proportion of divorced and unmarried are decreased in urban and increase proportion in the countryside, and this is due to the influence of the rural population in the urban centers. As well as the study showed that there was a significant effect of the economic and social factors and other factors on marital status on its parts in the study area.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of Traffic Performance of Ahmed Urabi Square in Baghdad City
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At present, smooth movement on the roads is a matter which is needed for each user. Many roads, especially in urban areas geometrically improved because of the number of vehicles increase from time to time.

In this research, Highway capacity software, HCS, 2000, will be adopted to determine the effectiveness of roundabout in terms of capacity of roundabout, delay and level of service of roundabout.

The results of the analysis indicated that the Ahmed Urabi roundabout operates under level of service F with an average control delay of 300 seconds per vehicle during the peak hours.

The through movements of Alkarrada- Aljadiriya direction (Major Direction) represent the heaviest traff

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 06 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Incidence of Hodgkin's lymphoma of head and neck in Baghdad city
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Background: Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL), formerly called Hodgkin's diseases is an uncommon form of lymphoma. The incidence of Hodgkin's lymphoma shows marked heterogeneity with respect to age, gender, race, geographic area, social class and histological subtype. This study was carried out in an attempt to evaluate the incidence of Hodgkin's lymphoma of head and neck in Baghdad city. Materials and Methods: The diagnosed cases of Hodgkin's lymphoma of head and neck region in Baghdad city between (1990-1999) were collected and analyzed according to age, gender, site and the histopathological subtypes of the tumor. Results: Out of (702) cases of Hodgkin's lymphoma of ten years between (1990-1999),(362 ) of them were occurred in the head and neck

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Comparison Study in Sarcasm For University of Baghdad Staff
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Sarcasm is conceders one patterns of undesirable communication, which causes social problems in humans relationships because of the contradictory verbal and nonverbal expressions is known sarcasm may defined , statements with intent to belittle others in different situations, dealing with the individual deliberately, to diminish the will or overwhelmed by the recipe stupid, which generate a reaction when a person listener, raising the intentions of ridicule and undermine it, and this may happen is different from the irony interest increased in sarcasm since the development of scientists "Watzlawick '" and Bevin "Jackson's" in 1967 theory interactive and considered the sarcasm one interaction patterns in the social relationship, which use

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Natural Consideration of Dairy Products in Baghdad Governorate
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The purpose of this research its study of Natural Consideration that contributed in turning of Dairy products in Baghdad Governorate , this subject deal with centered geographical location in the midlle of Iraq ,it’s also main market in discharge and marketing to rest of Iraqi’s governorate pointed to it’s an active role in localized of it’s factory(milk ,cheese,cream ,butter, yoghurte)and it’s constant ,thus distributedin all district of Baghdad ,flat governorate surface encourage this industry ,also climate (temperature, wind, (it’s speed and it’s direction) ,rainfull and relative wet) also water resources and it’s influenced that nessacity of production process with important inculclusion that researcher came out throu

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Seasonal occurence of aquatic fungi in tigris river during 2002
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Studied Seen fungi water in nine stations or selected sites along the Tigris River began from the city of Mosul in the north to Qurna in episodes were measured some chemical agents and Alvezaúah water ranged pH values ??(11p) between 7.0 to 8.3 either temperatures ranged between 10to 28 m study showed isolated 22 species of 14 genera of fungi

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 03 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Incidence of Seasonal Diarrhea among Children at Child's Central Hospital
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Objective: Diarrhea is a symptom of a variety of conditions may attack the child. It considered one of
mam causes of mortality rates especially in low socio- economic level countries. The child can be
easily got dehydration and pass from loss of too much body fluid and due to the Common thoueht of
increasing the incidence of diarrhea during summer season, this study is done to find out the relation
between the high incidences rate of diarrhea and weather variation
Methodology: This survey conducted in AL- Markazi Child's Teaching Hospital for the year 2005 the
data were gathered from hospital records for the period (January - December) and age groups
taxonomy used by hospital applied. Descriptive statistical analysis

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