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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 17 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Evaluation of Corrosion Pits in Esthetic Coated Stainless Steel Orthodontic Archwires in Dry and Wet Environment at Different Intervals (An In Vitro Study)
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Background: The demand for esthetic orthodontic appliances is increasing; so the esthetic orthodontic archwires were introduced. Among them, Teflon and Epoxy coated stainless steel archwires. The amount of force available from the archwire depends on the structural properties and susceptibility to corrosion. All metallic alloys are changed during immersion in artificial saliva, chlorhexidine mouthwash andtoothpaste, but their behaviors differ from one type to another. They corrode at different rates, which lead to decrease the amount of force applied to the teeth. This in vitro study was designed to evaluate the corrosion pits in stainless steel archwires coated with Teflon and with Epoxy in dry and after immersion in artificial saliva, chl

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Meta Gene
Cytokine gene variations and their impact on serum levels of IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-4, IL-10 and IL-12 among Iraqi Arabs
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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Kinetic, Isotherm, and Thermodynamic Study of Bismarck Brown Dye Adsorption onto Graphene Oxide and Graphene Oxide-Grafted-Poly (n-butyl methacrylate-co-methacrylic Acid)
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The adsorption behavior of Bismarck brown (BB) dye from aqueous solutions onto graphene oxide GO and graphene oxide-g-poly (n-butyl methacrylate-co-methacrylic acid) GO-g-pBCM as adsorbents was investigated. The prepared GO and GO-g-pBCM were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy FTIR, which confirmed the compositions of the prepared adsorbents. Adsorption of BB dye onto GO and GO-g-pBCM was explored in a series of batch experiments under various conditions. The data were examined utilizing Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. The Langmuir isotherm was seen as increasingly reasonable from the experimental information of dye on formulating adsorbents. Kinetic investigations showed that the experimental data were fitted ve

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 17 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Molecular Sciences
AhR Activation Leads to Alterations in the Gut Microbiome with Consequent Effect on Induction of Myeloid Derived Suppressor Cells in a CXCR2-Dependent Manner
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Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) is a ligand-activated transcription factor and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) is a potent ligand for AhR and a known carcinogen. While AhR activation by TCDD leads to significant immunosuppression, how this translates into carcinogenic signal is unclear. Recently, we demonstrated that activation of AhR by TCDD in naïve C57BL6 mice leads to massive induction of myeloid derived-suppressor cells (MDSCs). In the current study, we investigated the role of the gut microbiota in TCDD-mediated MDSC induction. TCDD caused significant alterations in the gut microbiome, such as increases in Prevotella and Lactobacillus, while decreasing Sutterella and Bacteroides. Fecal transplants from TCDD-treated

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Calculation of the partical distribution function g(r12,r1) for Carbon Ion cases (C+2,C+3,C+4) in the position space
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The aim of this work is study the partical distribution function g(r12,r1) for Carbon ion cases (C+2,C+3,C+4) in the position space using Hartree-Fock's Wave function, and the partitioning technique for each shell which is represented by Carbon Ions [C+2 (1s22s2)], [C+3 (1s22s)] and [C+4 (1s2)]. A comparision has been made among the three Carbon ions for each shell. A computer programs (MATHCAD ver. 2001i) has been used texcute the results.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biological and chemical Study to evaluate the types of water used for drinking in the Al-youssiffiyah area and its effect on public health
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Election study included four sites for the waters in area of Youssifiyah south of Baghdad (river water, tank water, liquefactions water, and water filtrate and seethed and purifier by alum and chloride), the samples were collected during the month of June in 2007. Temperature, electrical conductivity and acidity are measured. Also , the concentration of chloride , sulphate , carbonate , nitrate , sodium , calcium , magnesium , hard total and total dissolved substances are determined , as well as heavy metals assess environmental risk (such as Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe). It was also a study of bacterial totals included both total Bacteria (TB) and Total Coliform Bacteria (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) and Fecal Streptococci (FS). The stu

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of aqueous extracts and isolation proteinous compound from clove buds on serumglucose, triglyceride , glutathione and malnodialdehyde levels in alloxan induced diabetic mice
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This study was included preparing acold aqueous extract of clove buds The study also comprised the isolation and studying the proteinous compound,which was seperated using gel filtration technique and determined approximately molecular weight of this isolated compound(6799) dalton . The aim of the study demonstrate effects of the crude aqueous, non proteinous extract, proteinous precipitate and proteinous compound on serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglyceride and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels, also glutathione and malondialdehyde levels in liver and kidney tissues in diabetic mice-induced alloxan.Extracts were administerated interaperitioneally. The results were indicated that the crude aqueous, non proteinous extr

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Isolate and diagnose some bacteria contaminated minced meat and determine the concentrations of powder and extracts plant cinnamon bark inhibitory and minimum lethal bacteria
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Powder extracts hot water from local ground beef and studied inhibitory effectiveness of powder and extracts to the concentration of the aqueous extract hot Gulf students

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Colloid Interface Science
Corrigendum to “Organic acid concentration thresholds for ageing of carbonate minerals: Implications for CO2 trapping/storage” [J. Colloid Interface Sci. 534 (2019) 88–94]
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Erratum for Organic acid concentration thresholds for ageing of carbonate minerals: Implications for CO2 trapping/storage.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2013
Journal Name
Desalination And Water Treatment
Competitive biosorption of Pb(II), Cr(III), and Cd (II) from synthetic wastewater onto heterogeneous anaerobic biomass in single, binary, and ternary batch systems
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Biosorption of lead, chromium, and cadmium ions from aqueous solution by dead anaerobic biomass (DAB) was studied in single, binary, and ternary systems with initial concentration of 50 mg/l. The metal-DAB affinity was the same for all systems. The main biosorption mechanisms were complexation and physical adsorption of metallic cations onto natural active functional groups on the cell wall matrix of the DAB. It was found that biosorption of the metallic cations onto DAB cell wall component was a surface process. The main functional groups involved in the metallic cation biosorption were apparently carboxyl, amino, hydroxyle, sulfhydryl, and sulfonate. These groups were part of the DAB cell wall structural polymers. Hydroxyle groups (–O

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