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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Omani Sultanate of Zanzibar between Unity and Separation for the Period between (1223-1275 AH/ 1806-1861 A)
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Sultan Said bin Sultan bin Ahmed bin Said Al-Busaidi (1223-1273 AH / 1806-1856 AD) was able to rule Oman and Zanzibar in a unified Arab-African state during his reign. However, it was separated for several reasons. Thus, the study aims to clarify the efforts made by Sultan Said for annexing Zanzibar to Oman, establishing the Arab-African Sultanate, and shedding light on the role played by Britain in dividing the Arab-African Sultanate and separating Zanzibar from the Omani rule in (1275 AH-1861 AD). The study has adopted the historical descriptive analytical approach. The study has reached several conclusions, such as: The economic motivators  were the most important factors that pushed Sultan Said to move his capital from Muscat to

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synergistic Interaction in the adsorbed mixed surfactants film of Sodium Dodecyl Sulfate and Cocamidopropyl Betaine on Liquid – Air Interfacial
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In the present work, the critical micelle concentration (CMC) of the solution of Sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) as anionic surfactant, Cocamidopropyl Betaine (CAPB) as amphoteric surfactant, and their mixture have been determined using surface tension and conductivity measurements at a temperature range 293 -323 K. The adsorption and thermodynamic micellization parameters (?G?m, ?G?ads, ?max ,Amin,?cmc ) for individual surfactants was calculated. Rosen model which is focuses on the adsorbed mixed surfactant film at the air/solution interface was used to calculate the interaction parameter ( ?? ) at the interface and the activity coefficients g1 and g2. The results indicate that the CMC of the individual surfactants was affected by

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Effects of Melatonin On The Oxidative Stress , Protein Glycation , Microalbuminuria and Lipid Profile In Type II Diabetes Mellitus
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Previous studies indicated that supplementation with antioxidants has a protective effects against oxidative stress–induced damage in type 2 diabetes. In this study we evaluated the antioxidant effects of melatonin on the oxidative stress parameters and microalbuminuria in type 2 DM patients. 30 patients with type 2 DM were treated with 3mg/day melatonin for 90 days. Erythrocytes and plasma MDA and glutathione, fasting plasma glucose, %HbAIC, microalbuminuria, total plasma protein and lipid profile were measured each 30 days and compared with those obtained from 20 healthy controls.

A decrease in MDA levels associated with the elevation in GSH levels were observed, compared with the pre–treatment levels.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of a PID and a Fuzzy PID Controllers Designed for Controlling a Simulated Quadcopter Rotational Dynamics Model
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This work is concerned with designing two types of controllers, a PID and a Fuzzy PID, to be used
for flying and stabilizing a quadcopter. The designed controllers have been tuned, tested, and
compared using two performance indices which are the Integral Square Error (ISE) and the Integral
Absolute Error (IAE), and also some response characteristics like the rise time, overshoot, settling
time, and the steady state error. To try and test the controllers, a quadcopter mathematical model has
been developed. The model concentrated on the rotational dynamics of the quadcopter, i.e. the roll,
pitch, and yaw variables. The work has been simulated with “MATLAB”. To make testing the
simulated model and the controllers m

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
In vitro Performance of Polymethyl–methacrylate with Ultra High Density Poly Ethylene Fiber and Nano Zirconium Oxide Particles Composite
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Background: Poly (methyl methacrylate) has been widely utilized for fabrication of dentures for many years as it has good advantages but not achieved all demands of the mechanical properties such as low transverse strength, low impact strength, low surface hardness, high water solubility and high water sorption. Material and method: To provide bonding between ZrO2 nanoparticles and PMMA matrix, the ZrO2 Nano-fillers were surface-treated with a saline coupling agent. Plasma surface treatment of polyethylene (PE) fiber was done to change surface fiber by using DC- glow discharge system. For characterization of interring any functional groups, the (FTIR) spectrum were done .then the mechanical properties studied to choose the appropriate perc

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Results In Materials
Adsorption, thermodynamic and corrosion study of enalapril malate pharmaceutical drug as corrosion inhibitor for carbon steel in saline solution
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Unused and expired pharmaceutical drugs are a novel type of organic corrosion inhibitor. They are less expensive, more effective, and less harmful than conventional organic corrosion inhibitors. This study investigated the effects of concentration, adsorption mechanism and thermodynamic parameters of enalapril malate (ENAP) as a corrosion inhibitor for carbon steel in a saline solution (3.5 % NaCl). The polarization method was used to determine the corrosion rate and inhibition efficiency. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and atomic force spectroscopy (AFM) were used to investigate the surface morphology and topography of carbon steel after immersion in both uninhibited and inhibited media for 24 h. Fourier transform inf

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 13 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Biotechnology Research Center
In Vivo Study for Measuring the Toxicity of Heat Stable Enterotoxin (a) Produced by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli in Mice
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This research was conducted to measure the safety of heat stable enterotoxin a (STa) produced by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, through studying its toxic effect on mice since it showed a promising effect in reducing the proliferation of colorectal cancer cells. The cytogenetic effect was determined after giving five different doses (100, 200, 400, 800 and 1600)μg/Kg in comparison with negative (phosphate buffer saline / PBS) and positive (mitomycin C/ MMC, at doses of 2 and 5μg/Kg) controls on mouse bone marrow cells by employing the following parameters: mitotic index, chromosomal aberrations and micronucleus, also, the serum level of liver functional enzymes (GOT, GPT, ALP) was recorded. In addition, lethal dose 50 (LD 50) with cert

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
The Effect of The Blue-Violet Light Emitting Diode (Led) Irradiation on the Bleeding and Pain Following Tooth Extraction
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Drug Design, Development And Therapy
Effect of Clausena excavata Burm. f. (Rutaceae) leaf extract on wound healing and antioxidant activity in rats
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Publication Date
Wed Nov 11 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Research In Medical And Dental Science
Effect of Topical Melatonin Application on the Peri-Implant Proximal Bone Level and Cortical Plate Thickness (Pilot Clinical Trial)
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