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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Innovative Systems Design And Engineering
Water And Alcohol Extraction Of Thyme Plant (Thymus Vulgaris) And Activity Study Against Bacteria, Tumors And Used As Anti-Oxidant In Margarine Manufacture
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Isolation had been done for active substances from Thyme plant (Thymus Vulgaris) such as volatile oils, Saponins and Tannins. The percentage in form was (21.1%),(59.2%),( 9.7%) respectively. Also a study of anti-bacterial activity of extracts from Thyme using two types of pathogenic bacteria Escherichia Coli and aurous Staphylococcus showed the ability of inhibition for all different extracts by vary inhibition diameters for different active substances, concentrations and bacteria. One type of cancer cellular line used to study the effect of Thyme extracts on the growth of cells in the laboratory and thus know the specifications of extracts as anti-tumor, (L20B) cell line have been used which is mice Transformed cell Line. The possibility o

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 15 2019
Journal Name
Route Educational & Social Science Journal
The effect of the 4-H model on self-regulated learning and life skills for female chemistry students in the second intermediate year
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of cellular immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani comparing with cellular immune response against chicken Red Blood Cells.
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The Evaluation of the immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani was determined in this study, particularly, the cellular immune response. Follow up has maintained to determine the Delayed Type of Hypersensitivity using skin test both in infected and control lab animals. Chicken red blood cells were used as a parameter to evaluate the immune system; they are dull and have the ability of immunization. Two concentrations of chicken R.B.C were examined to determine which gives the higher titration in Hamsters and those were 1.5 X 109 cell/ml and 3 X 109 cell/ml , the second concentration gave the maximum titration where then used in this work. After sensitization with Chicken R.B.C for both infected a

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 14 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis, Structural and Biological Efficiency Studies of New Azo Ligands and Their complxes with Zn(II), Cd(II) and Hg(II) Metal ion
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The formation of Zn(II), Cd(II) and Hg(II) complexes was studied with two new hetrocyclic azo ligands 2-[4-(1-sulfonaphthalene)azo]-L-Histidine (L1) and 2-[7-(1-hydroxy3-sulfonaphthalene)azo]-L-Histidine (L2) derived from coupling reaction of diazonium salt of naphthionic acid and 7-amino-1-naphthol-5-sulfonic acid with L-Histidine in an alkaline ethanolic solution. The structural features of all new compounds have been characterized from their elemental analyses, metal content, magnetic moment measurement, molar conductance & FT-IR, UV-Vis. and 1HNMR spectral studies. Furthermore,the composition of complexes have been studied following the mole ratio method after fixing the optimum condition (pH and concentration).Beer’s law

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
Effect of the opposite hierarchical training method to developing explosive power, which is characterized by speed and some functional variables for basketball players
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The current world seeks to supply the most of the fruits of human knowledge and tries hard to search for the most important scientific facts, programs, means and advanced devices in various fields, including the sports field, and among these means is the use of various and advanced training devices and programs for the purpose of achieving the desired goal, which is to reach the desired level, the basketball game is one of the sports that need high technology in training according to scientifically studied principles because it is one of the games that relate to the abundance of its variables, composition and speed of change, all of which require a technical and high training depth and the players ’possession of different physical charact

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Die Dimensionen der Kurzgeschichte”Steh auf, steh doch auf“ The Dimension of short story (wake, Wake) 1958 by the German writer, Heinrich Böll.
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In dieser Kurzgeschichte werden die Züge der Trümmerliteratur präzis dargestellt. Die wurde von Heinrich Böll im Jahr 1958 geschrieben. In der vorliegenden Arbeit konzentriere ich mich auf vielfältige Stoffe in Bezug auf die Lage nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg. So gab ich dieser Arbeit einen besonderen Titel, der die Dimensionen dieser Kurzgeschichte heißt. Ich meine hier, die profunde Interpretation dieses Werkes, denn ich fand zwar hinter einigen Wörtern eine ganze Geschichte, die uns der Erzähler dadurch zeigen wollte.

So teilte ich diese Wörter (Grab, Schatten, Last, Schrei) als Dimensionen, von denen diese Arbeit umgekreist wird.

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Kapiteln, die aufeinander aufgebaut sind. Im ersten K

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect Altsoam and add ammonium chloride and sodium Pkarbinat in some drinking water productivity and physiological traits of male chicken meat thermally stressful
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The use of male mothers fur c meat Fabro to learn Effect concentrations of ammonium chloride NH4CL and Bacarbonnat sodium NaHCO3 in drinking water by heat stress and Altsoam during heat stress on some of the qualities of productivity and Alvesrgih divided animals to 6 transactions, namely: - control without adding NH4CL, NaHCO3 and Altsoam (treatment 1) Altsoam-1200 of 7-4 weeks old chicken meat to heat patrol 25-34-25 .. 7 weeks old Weight was measured gravimetric vivo increase feed consumption

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 23 2020
Journal Name
Medico-legal Update
Role of Endoscopic Ultrasound Guided Fine Needle Aspirate for Evaluating Lesions in or Adjacent to Gastrointestinal Tract: A Single Tertiary Care Center Experience
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 10 2023
Journal Name
Current Trends In Biotechnology And Pharmacy
In silico Molecular Docking and Scrutinizing Druglike Properties of Selected Phytoconstituents Against TAK1, Xanthin Oxidase, and IL-1 β Targets in Gouty Arthritis
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the Current Financial Crisis : Causes and Solutions (Iraqi crisis a model , based on the public budget for the fiscal year 2016)
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The research aims to analysis of the current financial crisis in Iraq through knowing its causes and then propose some solutions that help in remedy the crisis and that on the level of expenditures and revenues, and has been relying on the Federal general budget law of the Republic of Iraq for the fiscal year 2016 to obtain the necessary data in respect of the current expenditures and revenues which necessary to achieve the objective of the research , and through the research results has been reached to a set of conclusions which the most important of them that causes of the current financial crisis in Iraq , mainly belonging to increased expenditures and especially the current ones and the lack of revenues , especially non-oil o

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