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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Heat Transfer Coefficient and Pressure Drop in Wire Heat Exchanger Working with R-134a and R-600a
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An experimental and theoretical works were carried out to model the wire condenser in the domestic refrigerator by calculating the heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop and finding the optimum performance. The two methods were used for calculation, zone method, and an integral method. The work was conducted by using two wire condensers with equal length but different in tube diameters, two refrigerants, R-134a and R-600a, and two different compressors matching the refrigerant type. In the experimental work, the optimum charge was found for the refrigerator according to ASHRAE recommendation. Then, the tests were done at 32˚C ambient temperature in a closed room with dimension (2m*2m*3m). The results showed that th

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Pharmacological Research
Resveratrol-mediated attenuation of superantigen-driven acute respiratory distress syndrome is mediated by microbiota in the lungs and gut
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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Advanced Journal Of Chemistry, Section A
Synthesis and Characterization of Heterocyclic Derivatives to Evaluate their Efficiency as Corrosion Inhibitors for Carbon Steel in Saline Medium
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This work includes preparation of Az, Qz, and Tz derivatives from the reaction of Schiff base (Sb) derivative with anthranilic acid, chloroacetyl chloride, and sodium azide, as well as, the characterization via FT-IR, 1H-NMR, and 13CNMR. The anticorrosion inhibition of these compounds was studied and the measurements of carbon steel (CS) corrosion in sodium chloride solution 3.5% (blank) and inhibitor in solutions were calculated at a temperature range of 293-323 K by the technique of electrochemical polarization. In addition, some thermodynamic and kinetic activation parameters for inhibitor and blank solutions (Ea⋇, ΔH⋇, ΔS⋇, and ΔG⋇) were determined. The results showed high inhibition efficacy for all the prepared compounds,

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 27 2022
Journal Name
Nanomaterials
Improving the Melting Duration of a PV/PCM System Integrated with Different Metal Foam Configurations for Thermal Energy Management
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The melting duration in the photovoltaic/phase-change material (PV/PCM) system is a crucial parameter for thermal energy management such that its improvement can realize better energy management in respect to thermal storage capabilities, thermal conditions, and the lifespan of PV modules. An innovative and efficient technique for improving the melting duration is the inclusion of an exterior metal foam layer in the PV/PCM system. For detailed investigations of utilizing different metal foam configurations in terms of their convective heat transfer coefficients, the present paper proposes a newly developed mathematical model for the PV/PCM–metal foam assembly that can readily be implemented with a wide range of operating condition

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Synthesis and study the liquid crystalline properties of new compounds containing 5-methyl-2,4-dihydro-3H-pyrazol-3-one
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Abstract<p>The new compounds of pyrazolines were synthesized from the reaction of different acid hydrazide with ethylacetoacetate and ethanol under reflux. These compounds were obtained from many sequence reactions. The 4-acetyl-5-methyl-2,4-dihydro-3H-pyrazol-3-one compounds synthesized from the reaction of 5-methyl-2,4-dihydro-3H-pyrazol-3-one with acetyl chloride in calcium hydroxide and 1,4-dioxane. Finaly, Schiff bases were prepared via condensation reaction of products of mono- and tri ketone derivatives[IV]<sub>a, b</sub> with phenyl hydrazines as presented in (Scheme 1, 2). The synthesized compounds were identification by using FTIR, NMR and Mass spectroscopy (of some of them).</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 26 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Corrosion And Scale Inhibition
Synthesis of polysulfanilamide by electro polymerization and its corrosion protective properties on 316L stainless steel in 0.2 M HCl
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The electrochemical polymerization of the monomer sulfanilamide (SAM) in an aqueous solution at room temperature produces polysulfanilamide (PSAM). The Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) was used to investigate the properties of the prepared polymer layer that generated on the stainless steel (St.S) surface (working electrode) and Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) was used to characterize the morphology, topology, and detailed surface structure of polymer layer that generated on the surface. The corrosion behavior of uncoated and coated St.S were evaluated by using the electrochemical polarization method in a 0.2 M HCl solution and a temperature range of 293–323 K, the anticorrosion action of the polymer coating on stainless steel

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences
Impact of long-term depletion on horizontal wellbore stability in tight reservoirs-including changes in petrophysical and geomechanical properties
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Results In Materials
Adsorption, thermodynamic and corrosion study of enalapril malate pharmaceutical drug as corrosion inhibitor for carbon steel in saline solution
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Unused and expired pharmaceutical drugs are a novel type of organic corrosion inhibitor. They are less expensive, more effective, and less harmful than conventional organic corrosion inhibitors. This study investigated the effects of concentration, adsorption mechanism and thermodynamic parameters of enalapril malate (ENAP) as a corrosion inhibitor for carbon steel in a saline solution (3.5 % NaCl). The polarization method was used to determine the corrosion rate and inhibition efficiency. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and atomic force spectroscopy (AFM) were used to investigate the surface morphology and topography of carbon steel after immersion in both uninhibited and inhibited media for 24 h. Fourier transform inf

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 23 2022
Journal Name
Frontiers In Energy Research
Evaluation of T-Shaped Fins With a Novel Layout for Improved Melting in a Triple-Tube Heat Storage System
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The effects of T-shaped fins on the improvement of phase change materials (PCM) melting are numerically investigated in vertical triple-tube storage containment. The PCM is held in the middle pipe of a triple-pipe heat exchanger while the heat transfer fluid flows through the internal and external pipes. The dimension effects of the T-shaped fins on the melting process of the PCM are investigated to determine the optimum case. Results indicate that while using T-shaped fins improves the melting performance of the PCM, the improvement potential is mainly governed by the fin’s body rather than the head. Hence, the proposed T-shaped fin did not noticeably improve melting at the bottom of the PCM domain; additionally, a flat fin is ad

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Swarm And Evolutionary Computation
A review of heuristics and metaheuristics for community detection in complex networks: Current usage, emerging development and future directions
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