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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 16 2021
Journal Name
Turkish Journal Of Computer And Mathematics Education (turcomat)
The Impact Of Reflexive Learning Strategy On Mathematics Achievement By First Intermediate Class Students And Their Attitudes Towards E-Learning
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Publication Date
Mon Nov 10 2014
Journal Name
Advances In Language And Literary Studies
The Functions of Onomatopoeia in Modern English and Arabic Poetry: A Study in Selected Poems by Lawrence and al-Sayyab
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Onomatopoeia has always been a functional poetic device which enjoys a high sound significance in the poetry of many languages. In modern English and Arabic poetry alike, it proves to be vital and useful at different levels: musical, thematic and at the level of meaning. Still, the cultural difference looms large over the ways it is employed by the poets of each. The present paper investigates the employment of onomatopoeia in the poetry of D. H. Lawrence (1885-1930) and Badr Shakir al-Sayyab (1926-1964) who are chosen due to the importance they enjoy in modern English and Arabic poetry and the richness of their poems in onomatopoeias. The conclusions reached at are in a sense related to cultural differences which govern the use of onomato

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
What he finishes and what he does not leave Between Sibawayh and the cooler A descriptive study of their methodologies
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It was rumored in the grammatical circles that the (short) refrigerant is only a copy of (book) Sibweh, except some of the views that violated it, or some of the evidence that increased it; On the (brief) or not, the researcher has chosen the subject (what is going away and not leave) a field of study of the budget, has come on three demands, the first devoted to the study of the term, and the second to explain the methodology of scientists in the presentation of the topic, and the third was limited to the study of the evidence they invoked .
God grants success

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Utilizing the Gravity Method to Detect the Potential Effect of the Salt Dome in the Nahr Omar Oilfield, Southern Iraq
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Geophysics is one of the branches of Earth sciences and deals with studying the Earth's interior by studying the variation of physical properties within rock layers. Applied geophysics depends on procedures that involve the measurements of potential fields, such as the gravitational method. One of the significant oil fields in southern Iraq is represented by the Nahr Omar structure. A power spectrum analysis (SPA) technique was used to collect gravity data within the chosen oil field area in order to confirm the salt dome in the subsurface layers. The analysis of SPA resulted from six surfaces representing the gravity variation values of the depths (m)14300, 3780, 3290, 2170, 810, and 93.5. Gravity surfaces have been converted to de

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The effect of waterlase laser and herbal alternative, green tea and Salvadora Persica (Siwak) extract on push-out bond strength
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Background: The bond strength of root canal sealers to dentin was important for maintaining the integrity of the seal in root canal filling in both static and dynamic situations. In a static situation, it should eliminate any space that allowed the percolation of fluids between the filling and the wall while in a dynamic situation; it was needed to resist dislodgement of the filling during subsequent manipulation. Materials and Methods: Forty mandibular premolars were selected for this study. All canals were instrumented using ProTaper rotary instruments. Instrumentation was done with copious irrigation of 5.25% sodium hypochlorite. Roots were randomly divided into four groups according to the type of cleaning and method of root canal irrig

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation for the Effect of Heat Stable Enterotoxin (a) Produced by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli on Different Cancer Cells In Vitro
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This study was conducted for evaluating the cytotoxic effect of heat stable enterotoxin a (STa) produced by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli on the proliferation of primary cancer cell cultures, obtained from tumor samples that were collected from (13) cancer patients and as follows: (five colon cancer patients, two bladder cancer patients, two breast cancer patients, two stomach cancer patients and two lung cancer patients), and on normal cell line (rat embryonic fibroblast / REF) (in vitro) with the use of different concentrations starting from (1) mg/ml and ending with (0.0002) mg/ml by making two fold serial dilutions by using the 96- well microtiter plate, and in comparison with negative (PBS) and positive (MMC, at concentration

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Natural Sciences Research
Spectrophotometric-Assisted Chemometric Method for the Simultaneous Analysis of Furosemide, Carbamazepine, Diazepam, and Carvedilol in Their Bulk and Marketed Formulation
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Simultaneous determination of Furosemide, Carbamazepine, Diazepam, and Carvedilol in bulk and pharmaceutical formulation using the partial least squares regression (PLS-1 and PLS-2) is described in this study. The two methods were successfully applied to estimate the four drugs in their quaternary mixture using UV spectral data of 84synthetic mixtures in the range of 200-350nm with the intervals Δλ=0.5nm. The linear concentration range were 1-20 μg.mL-1 for all, with correlation coefficient (R2) and root mean squares error for the calibration (RMSE) for FURO, CARB, DIAZ, and CARV were 0.9996, 0.9998, 0.9997, 0.9997, and 0.1128, 0.1292, 0.1868,0.1562 respectively for PLS-1, and for PLS-2 were 0.9995, 0.9999, 0.9997, 0.9998, and 0.1127, 0.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Spectral Studies of ZnII,CdII and HgII Complexes with 5-(2-Benzoic acid azo)-8-hydroxy quinoline Ligand
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Coupling reaction of 2-amino benzoic acid with 8-hydroxy quinoline gave bidentate azo ligand. The prepared ligand has been identified by Microelemental Analysis,1HNMR,FT-IR and UV-Vis spectroscopic techniques. Treatment of the prepared ligand with the following metal ions (ZnII,CdII and HgII) in aqueous ethanol with a 1:2 M:L ratio and at optimum pH, yielded a series of neutral complexes of the general formula [M(L)2]. The prepared complexes have been characterized by using flame atomic absorption, (C.H.N) Analysis, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectroscopic methods as well as conductivity measurements. The nature of the complexes formed were studied following the mole ratio and continuous variation methods, Beer's law obeyed over a concentration ra

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study the Effect Different Radioactive Dose on Mechanical Properties of Composite Material from Novolak Resin Exposure to High – Energy Radiation
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The research involves using phenol – formaldehyde (Novolak) resin as matrix for making composite material, while glass fiber type (E) was used as reinforcing materials. The specimen of the composite material is reinforced with (60%) ratio of glass fiber.

      The impregnation method is used in test sample preparation, using molding by pressure presses.

      All samples were exposure to (Co60) gamma rays of an average energy (2.5)Mev. The total doses were (208, 312 and 728) KGy.

      The mechanical tests (bending, bending strength, shear force, impact strength and surface indentation) were performed on un irradiated and irrad

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Comparative Study between the Behavior of the Concrete Thrust Block and the Restraint Joint in a Water Distribution System; Review
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Thrust blocks and restraint joints are the two most popular methods of counteracting the thrust force that generated at pipe fittings (bends, Tee, wye, reducers, dead ends, etc…). Both systems perform the same function, which is to prevent the joints from separating from the pipes. The aim of the study is to review previous studies and scientific theories related to the study and design of thrust blocks and restraint joints to study the behavior of both systems under thrust force and to study the factors and variables that affect the behavior of these systems. The behavior of both systems must be studied because they cannot be abandoned, as each system has conditions whose use is more feasible, scientific, and economic

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