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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Building and rationing test to measure the kinetic response to the movement of the player defender basketball junior time
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The researchers believe the problem of searching the scarcity or limited tests of time kinetic response led to scarcity or limited availability of experimental research in exercises codified within the training curriculum for the junior class, and therefore has been weakening this physical variable as an important episode in the development of the players physical capacities as well as the lack of measure for this variable within the defensive skills in general and the skill of the player movement defender in particular, and it represents the goal of research in the treatment of the above through the construction and rationing test to measure the kinetic response to the movement of the player defender basketball junior time. Chosen as the r

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Publication Date
Wed May 07 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Constructive Learning Model on Cognitive Achievement and Learning dribbling Skill in Soccer for Secondary School Students
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The research aimed at identifying the effect of using constructive learning model on academic achievement and learning soccer dribbling Skill in 2nd grade secondary school students. The researcher used the experimental method on (30) secondary school students; 10 selected for pilot study, 20 were divided into two groups. The experimental group followed constructive learning model while the controlling group followed the traditional method. The experimental program lasted for eight weeks with two teaching sessions per week for each group. The data was collected and treated using SPSS to conclude the positive effect of using constructive learning model on developing academic achievement and learning soccer dribbling Skill in 2nd grade seconda

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Studia Ubb Chemia,
EXCESS AND DEVIATIONS PROPERTIES FOR THE BINARY SOLVENT MIXTURES OF TETRAHYDROFURFURYL ALCOHOL WITH SOME AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS AT 298.15 K.
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In this work, excess properties (eg excess molar volume (VE), excess viscosity (ȠE), excess Gibbs free energy of activation of viscos flow (ΔG* E) and molar refraction changes (ΔnD) of binary solvent mixtures of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol (THFA) with aromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene and p-xylene) have been calculated. This was achieved by determining the physical properties including density ρ, viscosity Ƞ and refraction index nD of liquid mixtures at 298.15 K. Results of the excess parameters and deviation functions for the binary solvent mixtures at 298.15 K have been discussed by molecular interactions that occur in these mixtures. Generally, parameters showed negative values and have been found to fit well to Redlich-Kister

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2023
Journal Name
Drug And Chemical Toxicology
Single and repeat-dose toxicity and local tolerance assessment of newly developed oil emulsion adjuvant formulations for veterinary purposes
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 15 2020
Journal Name
Modern Physics Letters A
Nuclear matter distributions of neutron rich 6He, 11Li, 14Be and 17B halo nuclei studied by the Bear Hodgson potential
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The radial wave functions of the Bear–Hodgson potential have been used to study the ground state features such as the proton, neutron and matter densities and the as- sociated rms radii of two neutrons halo 6He, 11Li, 14Be and 17B nuclei. These halo nuclei are treated as a three-body system composed of core and outer two-neutron (Core + n + n). The radial wave functions of the Bear–Hodgson potential are used to describe the core and halo density distributions. The interaction of core-neutron takes the Bear–Hodgson potential form. The outer two neutrons of 6He and 11Li interact by the realistic interaction REWIL whereas those of 14Be and 17B interact by the realistic interaction of HASP. The obtained results show that this model succee

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Clinical and Radiographical Evaluation of Pulpotomy in Primary Molars Treated with Pulpotec ( PD ) , Formocresol and Mineral Trioxide Aggregate ( MTA )
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 07 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
skills and its relationship to the with concept of self in social The chidren kindergarten age (4-6) years
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 The interest in Multi social skills and self-concept is extremely  important for many of the scholars of education and psychology has taken a great deal in their writings and their interests as they see that social skills training is to make sure of the same, and that whenever enable the individual from acquiring social skills whenever asserted itself.The research aims know social skills and self-concept and their relationship to the children Riyadh age (4-6 years), and the research sample consisted of(200) boys and girls from kindergarten in the city of Baghdad Bjanbey Rusafa second and Karkh second.And to the objectives of the research realized the researcher has built two measures of social skills a

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Agbioforum
The Role of the Digital Economy, Business Synergy, and Trade Policies on Global Economic Prosperity in India and China
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The necessity of addressing global economic prosperity has garnered significant attention from recent studies and policymakers. This article analyses the effects of the digital economy, business synergies, and trade policies on the economic prosperity of China and India. The study examines the impact of political support on the digital economy, business synergies, trade policies, and global economic prosperity in China and India. The study collects data from prominent economists in India and China using questionnaires. The article utilised the SPSS-AMOS software to analyse the relationship between variables. The results showed that the digital economy, business synergies, and trade policies are positively linked to global economic prosperit

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 21 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Synthesis, Characterization and Preliminary Anticancer Study of Novel 5-fluorouracil Conjugate with Pyrrolidine Dithiocarbamate as a Mutual Anticancer Prodrug
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 5-Fluorouracil is one of the commonly used chemotherapy drugs in anticancer therapy; unfortunately treatment with 5-FU by solely has many drawbacks  low lipophilicity, low permeability, low molecular weight, and its relatively poor plasma protein binding; also a brief half-life therefore frequent administration is required to maintain the optimal therapeutic plasma level which in addition to its poor selectivity, drug resistance and limited penetration to cancer cells; leads to increased incidence of side-effects to healthy cells/tissues and low response rates. In order to minimize these drawbacks; 5-FU was chemically  conjugated with pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate (PDTC) in a mutual prodrug moiety (S-(9H-purin-6-yl) 3-(

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Biotechnology Research Center
Study the Effects of Methotrexate with and without Vitamin A on Some Biochemical and Histological Parameters in Male Rabbits
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The present study aims to evaluate the effects of methotrexate (MTX) with and without vitamin A (Vit. A) on some biochemical parameters and histological structure in male rabbits liver. Twenty male rabbits weighing 1250-1480 gm were divided into four equal number groups. The first group was given 2 ml distilled water as control group. The second group was given MTX (20 mg/kg), the third group was given Vit. A (5000 IU), while the fourth group was given MTX (20 mg/kg) +Vit. A (5000 IU) in alternative days. Following four weeks of treatment, lipid profile total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), [low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)]; in addition to thyroid hormones tr

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