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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Structural and D.C. conductivity investigation of the ternary alloy System a-AlXGa1-x As:H films prepared by new deposition method
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In this paper Alx Ga1-x As:H films have been prepared by using new deposition method based on combination of flash- thermal evaporation technique. The thickness of our samples was about 300nm. The Al concentration was altered within the 0 x 40.
The results of X- ray diffraction analysis (XRD) confirmed the amorphous structure of all AlXGa1-x As:H films with x  40 and annealing temperature (Ta)<200°C. the temperature dependence of the DC conductivity GDC with various Al content has been measured for AlXGa1-x As:H films.
We have found that the thermal activation energy Ea depends of Al content and Ta, thus the value of Ea were approximately equal to half the value of optical gap.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 07 2020
Journal Name
Xi,an University Of Architecture &technology
The Effect of Jigsaw strategy on Academic Achievement and Engagement in Learning among the 3rd male graders students in Chemistry
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The research aims to identify the effect of jigsaw strategy in learning achievement and engaging for the third grade intermediate students in chemistry. The research sample consisted of (61) students distributed in two experimental and control groups. The research tools consisted in the achievement test and the measure of engaging learning. The results showed that there are statistically significant differences at the level of (α = 0.05) between the experimental group and the control group in both the achievement test and the measure of learning involvement for the benefit of the experimental group. In this light, the researcher recommended the use of jigsaw strategy for teaching the subject matter. Lamia because of its impact in raising

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Study of Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics in Solid and Perforated Finned Heat Sinks Utilizing a Piezoelectric Fan
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Numerical study is adapted to combine between piezoelectric fan as a turbulent air flow generator and perforated finned heat sinks. A single piezoelectric fan with different tip amplitudes placed eccentrically at the duct entrance. The problem of solid and perforated finned heat sinks is solved and analyzed numerically by using Ansys 17.2 fluent, and solving three dimensional energy and Navier–Stokes equations that set with RNG based k−ε scalable wall function turbulent model. Finite volume algorithm is used to solve both phases of solid and fluid. Calculations are done for three values of piezoelectric fan amplitudes 25 mm, 30 mm, and 40 mm, respectively. Results of this numerical study are compared with previous b

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Efficacy, safety and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Lowering Ability of ACE Inhibitors, B-Blockers and Combination Antihypertensive Drug Regimes in Iraq
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Hypertension is a major health problem throughout the world because of its high prevalence and its association with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. It is defined as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy, safety and cardiovascular disease risk lowering ability, of three antihypertensive drug regimens.

A retrospective study was carried out on 66 hypertensive patients, divided in to three groups based on their antihypertensive drug regimens (ACE inhibitors, β-blockers treated and combination antihypertensive therapy, the combination therapy consist of two or more of the following antihypertensive drugs ACE inhibitor di

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 20 2022
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
DESCRIPTION OF THE PREDATOR BUSH CRICKET, SAGA EPHIPPIGERA FISCHER VON WALDHEIM, 1846 (ORTHOPTERA, TETTIGONIIDAE) FROM ERBIL PROVINCE, KURDISTAN REGION- IRAQ
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The predatory bush crickets Saga ephippigera Fischer Von Waldheim, 1846 is the largest Iraqi orthopterans and one of the most active and successful predators in the Kurdistan region. The nymphs and adults prey on all the stages of various species of insects. Twelve adult specimens were collected from Erbil Province during May 2018 and June 2021. Morphological structures of the adult insects were described and illustrated in details; important taxonomic characteristics of body regions with their appendages were chosen; and the results indicated the importance of morphological characteristics which confirmed the identification of this species correctly.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 10 2017
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية الاساسية/الجامعة المستنصرية
Detection of some major elements and protein in Fusarium wilt disease infected tomato(Lycopersicon esculentum) treated with Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi
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Abstract The present study was Conducted to evaluate the effect of amixture of three species of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi ( Glomus etunicatum , G. leptotichum and Rhizophagus intraradices ) in Influence on the percentage of the components of NPK and protein of tomato leaves and roots infected with Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. Lycopersici wich cause Fusarial wilt disease , planted for 8 weeks in the presence of the organic matter ( peatmose) , using pot cultures in aplastic green house , Results indicated significant increase in the percentage of the elements of NK and protein of tomato leaves and roots In the control treatment (C), While the percentage of the element P was after infection with the pathogen 4 weaks after mycorrhiza

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2013
Journal Name
Mathematical Problems In Engineering
CFD analysis of Heat transfer and friction factor characteristics in a circular tube fitted with Quadrant-cut twisted tape inserts
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The antiviral activity of the compound chalcone (4-ethoxy-2-hydroxy-4, 6-dimethoxy-chalcone) against rubella virus in vitro
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The studies on the antiviral compound chalcone in vitro in both tissue and organ culture systems against rubella virus glass that this compound relatively non toxic to the cell culture and organ culture of the concentration of 8 ug/ml or less, chalcone have significantly antiviral activity against rubella virus in tissue culture and organ culture. We find that a concentration of 0.03ug/ml or more inhibit the IOOTCID50 of rubella virus. The therapeutic index (TI) used in this study to evaluate the drug, the (TI) which is the ratio of the dose of drug which is just toxic (Maximum tolerated dose) to the dose which is just effective (Minimum effective dose). If this index is one or less it not possible to use the drug under the conditions outli

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Pakistan Heart Journal
Music Medicine Intervention--Based Program for Reducing Pain and Anxiety of Children Undergoing Bone Marrow Aspiration and Lumber Puncture Procedures
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Publication Date
Sun Nov 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering And Applied Sciences
Fabrication and Properties of Ag<sub>2</sub>O/Si Heterojunction Solar Cell Pure and Doped (Sb, Sn and Se)
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