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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 09 2025
Journal Name
Scientific Reports
Machine learning models for predicting morphological traits and optimizing genotype and planting date in roselle (Hibiscus Sabdariffa L.)
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Accurate prediction and optimization of morphological traits in Roselle are essential for enhancing crop productivity and adaptability to diverse environments. In the present study, a machine learning framework was developed using Random Forest and Multi-layer Perceptron algorithms to model and predict key morphological traits, branch number, growth period, boll number, and seed number per plant, based on genotype and planting date. The dataset was generated from a field experiment involving ten Roselle genotypes and five planting dates. Both RF and MLP exhibited robust predictive capabilities; however, RF (R² = 0.84) demonstrated superior performance compared to MLP (R² = 0.80), underscoring its efficacy in capturing the nonlinear genoty

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 16 2022
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Comparative study of vibration analysis in rotary shafts between Rayleigh's and Dunkerley's methods
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The importance of vibrations in rotating rotors in engineering applications has been examined, as has the best approach to interpreting vibration data. The most extensively used analytical approaches for rotating shaft vibration analysis have been investigated. In this research, a detailed study was made of the Rayleigh and Dunkerley methods due to their importance in the special calculations to find the amplitude of vibrations in the rotation system. The multi-node method was used to calculate both Dunkerley's and Rayleigh's methods. An experimental platform was built to study the vibrations that occur in the rotating shafts, and the results were compared with theoretical calculations and with different distances of the bearings. It pro

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Patients' Satisfaction toward Nursing Care at Hemodialysis units
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Objectives: To assess patients' satisfaction to nursing care at hemodialysis units and determine the relationship
between patients' satisfaction and patients' demographic data.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at hemodialysis units of Baghdad teaching hospitals from Feb.
4
th
, 2010 through Sep. 5
th, 2010. A purposive (non-probability) sample of (150) patients ta hemodialysis units ni
Baghdad teaching hospitals was selected. The data were collected through the use of constructing questionnaire
and by means of an interview technique with the patients; the questionnaire consists of two parts (1)
demographic data (2) patients' satisfaction to nursing care. The validity of the study questionnaire w

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Controlled Release
The efficacy of aerosol treatment with non-ionic surfactant vesicles containing amphotericin B in rodent models of leishmaniasis and pulmonary aspergillosis infection
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the Active Learning Model and Its Effect on Students' Achievement in Chemistry for Fifth Intermediate Stage
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The objective of the research is to identify the effect of an instructional design according to the active learning modelsالباحثين in the achievement of the students of the fifth grade, the instructional design was constructed according to the active learning models for the design of education. The research experience was applied for a full academic year (the first & the second term of 2017-2018). The sample consisted of 58 students, 28 students for the experimental group and 30 students for the control group. The experimental design was adopted with partial and post-test, the final achievement test consisted of (50) objectives and essays items on two terms, the validity of the test was verified by the adoption of the Kudoric

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the infection with intestinal protozoa Entamoeba histolytica and Giardia lamblia among Patients who attending Bint Al- Huda for maternity and children hospital and Al hussin hospital in Nassriyia city in Thi-Qar province
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The aims of this study the infection with parasites Entamoeba histolytica and Giardia lamblia and prevalence rates and their relationship with gende , age group , the number of family members and source of drinking water among the patients at attending the Bint Al Huda and Al- Hussin Teaching hospital in Nassriyia city in Thi- Qar province , it was noticed that the percentage of parasitic infection at females was 38.55% and at males was 61.45% and the percentage of parasitic infection with Entamoeba histolytica 97% was higher than the percentage of parasitic infection with Giardia lamblia 3%,and the reduction of percentage of infection is associated with increasing of the number of family member ,the percentage of infection was 49% at the

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
The city’s ecological applications and standards in ALAMARA city
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Abstract<p>In the last period there have been rapid developments and increased interest in the integration of the environment into urban planning. It has occupied a large part of the world’s most economically and economically important concerns, emphasizing the need to adopt the concepts of green urban construction as a basis for future cities. Both human and nature to continue and stay. Hence, the importance of research in building a base on the planning and design principles of the eco-friendly city for the purpose of local adoption”, thus facing the problem of” lack of application of knowledge on the basis of planning and design eco-friendly city. The hypothesis that “the development </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Mar 21 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Hosting Events and its Positive Impact on the City
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Abstract : This research is a field study of international cities that hosted various events of which (Sports, Exhibitions, Scientific, Cultural) and other events, these positive impacts on the city driven by such hosts were identified. The research goal was to support hosting events to improve the hostess city and to draw future plans for further developments and to invest event’s hosting to strengthen the city’s value according to a strategic vision that looks for the future the most important conclusions are Entering events hosting is a part of urban development strategies and The most important recommendations are coordination between hosting event activities and its facilities with the infrastructure structure of the host city, its

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 09 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Molecular Study of Two Fungi Millerozyma Farinosa and Candida Orthopsilosis by PCR Using Its Gene and Phylogenetic Structuring Tree Isolated from Diabetic Patient in Baghdad
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Diabetic mellitus is one of the main risk factors of fungal infections because poor glycemic control is associated with a high level of glucose in blood and saliva which could be treated as nutrient to fungi. This study aimed to isolate and identification of pathogenic fungi from diabetic patient. 140 samples were taken from different places of human body from the national center of diabetic patients that related to Mustansiriyah University / college of medicine and Al-yarmuk Hospital in Baghdad. 84 sample (60%) tested positive to fungi and 56 sample (40%) tested negative to fungi. The most frequented fungi isolated have been chosen for molecular identification by PCR (Millerozyma farinosa and Candida orthopsilosis) using specific pri

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Planning treatments for residential neighborhoods in the holy city of Karbala in light of the concepts of sustainability
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Establishing sustainable cities and residential neighborhoods requires the development of new planning strategies, as adopting sustainable planning strategies when planning urban land uses for residential neighborhoods is necessary due to the large number of urban land use problems that have emerged during urbanization. The most prominent modern concept concerned with the land was the concept of sustainability, as sustainable planning aspires to link knowledge with sustainability through measures to achieve it. Therefore, sustainable planning works to apply the principles of sustainability in planning.

And in view of the circumstances that our country went through, which negatively affected various sectors and aspects of life, in

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