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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
Energies
Synergizing Machine Learning and Physical Models for Enhanced Gas Production Forecasting: A Comparative Study of Short- and Long-Term Feasibility
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Advanced strategies for production forecasting, operational optimization, and decision-making enhancement have been employed through reservoir management and machine learning (ML) techniques. A hybrid model is established to predict future gas output in a gas reservoir through historical production data, including reservoir pressure, cumulative gas production, and cumulative water production for 67 months. The procedure starts with data preprocessing and applies seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) to capture seasonality and trends in production data, while an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) captures complicated spatiotemporal connections. The history replication in the models is quantified for accuracy through metric keys such as m

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 14 2026
Journal Name
Architecture Image Studies
The role of artificial intelligence in developing humanities studies from archaeological discovery to historical recording and geographical analysis: Application models
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The Fourth Industrial Revolution represents an advanced stage of technological development, characterized by the integration of digital, physical, and biological technologies, with a strong focus on smart connectivity and advanced data analysis. At the core of this revolution stands Artificial Intelligence (AI), which enables the processing of vast amounts of data, decision-making with speed and accuracy, automation of processes, and enhancement of productivity and quality. This research examines the transformative role of AI in the humanities, particularly in archaeological, historical, and geographical studies, where traditional methods face limitations in handling complex and extensive datasets.The study aims to highlight these l

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
البهائيون في بغداد (دراسة تاريخية)
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The Baha'is are a group that belongs to the Baha'iya, the Baha'iya according to the encyclopedia of Religion Sciences is a modern religious sect appeared in existence in the middle of the ninetieth century. The number of their believers is around six million people of different parts of the world. its main center lies in Haifa city in Palestine

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 04 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
البهائيون في بغداد (دراسة تاريخية)
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The Baha'is are a group that belongs to the Baha'iya, the Baha'iya according to the encyclopedia of Religion Sciences is a modern religious sect appeared in existence in the middle of the ninetieth century. The number of their believers is around six million people of different parts of the world. its main center lies in Haifa city in Palestine.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Improving the Durability of Streak and Thermal Insulation of Petroleum Pipes by Using Polymeric Based Paint System: Polymer Matrix Composites have several and wide applications
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This research deals with increasing the hardening and insulating the petroleum pipes against the conditions and erosion of different environments. So, basic material of epoxy has been mixed with Ceramic Nano Zirconia reinforcement material 35 nm with the percentages  (0,1,2,3,4,5) %, whereas the paint basis of broken petroleum pipes was used  to paint on it, then it was cut into dimensions (2 cm. × 2 cm.) and 0.3cm high. After the paint and percentages are completed, the samples were immersed into the paint. Then, the micro-hardness was checked according to Vickers method and thermal inspection of paint, which contained (Thermal conduction, thermal flux and Thermal diffusivity), the density of the painted samples was calculate

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 05 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education Online
Measuring The Efficiency of The Departments of The College of Administration and Economics / University of Baghdad Using the Method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), A Comparative Study
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education Online
Measuring The Efficiency of The Departments of The College of Administration and Economics / University of Baghdad Using the Method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), A Comparative Study
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The research aims at the possibility of measuring the technical and scale efficiency (SE) of the departments of the College of Administration and Economics at the University of Baghdad for a period lasting 8 years, from the academic year 2013-2014 to 2018-2019 using the method of Applied Data Analysis with an input and output orientation to maintain the distinguished competitive position and try to identify weaknesses in performance and address them. Nevertheless, the research problem lies in diagnosing the most acceptable specializations in the labor market and determining the reasons for students’ reluctance to enter some departments. Furthermore, the (Win4DEAp) program was used to measure technical and scale efficiency (SE) and rely on

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Patients' Satisfaction toward Nursing Care at Hemodialysis units
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Objectives: To assess patients' satisfaction to nursing care at hemodialysis units and determine the relationship
between patients' satisfaction and patients' demographic data.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at hemodialysis units of Baghdad teaching hospitals from Feb.
4
th
, 2010 through Sep. 5
th, 2010. A purposive (non-probability) sample of (150) patients ta hemodialysis units ni
Baghdad teaching hospitals was selected. The data were collected through the use of constructing questionnaire
and by means of an interview technique with the patients; the questionnaire consists of two parts (1)
demographic data (2) patients' satisfaction to nursing care. The validity of the study questionnaire w

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 25 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Assessment of Serum Levels of the WNT Pathway Antagonist (Dickkopf-1) in a Sample of Type 2 Diabetic Patients with Retinopathy using Two Groups of Antidiabetics
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Objectives: Dickkopf-1 (DKK-1) is WNT/b-catenin pathway antagonist which plays a detrimental role in the development of diabetic retinopathy (DR). This research aimed to assess serum DKK-1 levels in diabetic patients who have and have not developed DR and, compare them with the control subjects finding out whether we can use it as an indicator for DR early diagnosis and to find out which one of the widely used two groups of antidiabetic treatments had the greater effect on this biomarker and hence on the progression of DR. Methods: The study participants were divided into two subgroups: First, 70 patients (36 male, 34 female) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, among them 35 patients diagnosed with DR and 35 with no evidence of DR, and s

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 06 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Bone Defect Animal Model for Hybrid Polymer Matrix Nano Composite as Bone Substitute Biomaterials
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Addition of bioactive materials such as Titanium oxide (TiO2), and incorporation of bio inert ceramic such as alumina (Al2O3), into polyetheretherketone (PEEK) has been adopted as an effective approach to improve bone-implant interfaces. In this paper, hot pressing technique has been adopted as a production method. This technique gave a homogenous distribution of the additive materials in the proposed composite biomaterial. Different compositions and compounding temperatures have been applied to all samples. Mechanical properties and animal model have been studied in all different production conditions. The results of these new TiO2/Al2O3/PEEK biocomposites with different

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