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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of governmental consumer spending on the development of the current account balance in Iraq for the period (1990-2014) using ARDL model
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To avoid the negative effects due to inflexibility of the domestic production inresponse to the increase in government consumption expenditure leads to more  imports to meet the increase in domestic demand resulting from the increase in government consumption expenditure. Since the Iraqi economy economy yield unilateral depends on oil revenues to finance spending, and the fact government consumer spending is a progressive high flexibility the increase in overall revenues, while being a regressive flexibility is very low in the event of reduced public revenues, and therefore lead to a deficit in the current account position. And that caused the deficit for imbalance are the disruption of the

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Developing Tenth Grade Female Students' Attitudes in Critical Reading Skills Using the Reflective Thinking Method in the Sultanate of Oman
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        This study aimed to developing the skills of critical reading for the tenth basic school female students through a training program using the reflective thinking method. The study sample consisted of (64) students. To achieve the objective of the study, the researcher uses the quasi-experiment approach consisting of a control group (32 students) and an experimental group (32 students). The researcher used three research inventories as follows: 1) A list of critical reading skills included (30) skills within three aspects (Recognition – Deduction – Evaluation and Judgment). 2) An executive program using reflective thinking for developing critical reading skills. 3) Achievement test to measure

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Publication Date
Mon May 06 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Pakistan Association Of Dermatologists
Assessment of tumor necrosis factor alpha and interleukinـ10 in obese psoriatic patients before and after using apremilast
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Background Psoriasis is one of the most prevalent chronic inflammatory skin conditions; its prevalence ranges from 1 to 3%. Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), a cytokine that enhances inflammation, is overexpressed in synovium and skin plaques in psoriasis. TNF-α plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of psoriasis. IL-10 is the most crucial cytokine for reducing excessive immune responses and decreasing pro-inflammatory reactions in all autoimmune disorders.   Objective To evaluate the effect of Apremilast on ILـ10, TNFـα, and BMI in obese psoriatic patients.   Methods Thirty patients included in this investigative study to measure the concentrations of TNFـα, ILـ10 and BMI, before and after receiving Apremilast. TNFـα and

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences And Applications
Treatment of gray hair in vitiligo patients by direct melanocytes transplant using needling micrografting and dermabrasion techniques
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KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, HA Al-Mudaris, Journal of Cosmetics, Dermatological Sciences and Applications, 2013 - Cited by 4

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
PDF Comparison based on Various FSO Channel Models under Different Atmospheric Turbulence
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Recently, wireless communication environments with high speeds and low complexity have become increasingly essential. Free-space optics (FSO) has emerged as a promising solution for providing direct connections between devices in such high-spectrum wireless setups. However, FSO communications are susceptible to weather-induced signal fluctuations, leading to fading and signal weakness at the receiver. To mitigate the effects of these challenges, several mathematical models have been proposed to describe the transition from weak to strong atmospheric turbulence, including Rayleigh, lognormal, Málaga, Nakagami-m, K-distribution, Weibull, Negative-Exponential, Inverse-Gaussian, G-G, and Fisher-Snedecor F distributions. This paper extensive

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Methodsx
How mathematical models might predict desertification from global warming and dust pollutants
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Publication Date
Tue Jul 14 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Green Synthesize of Zinc Oxide Catalyst Using Pomegranate Peels Extract for the Photocatalytic Degradation of Methylene Blue Dye
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In this study, the zinc oxide NPs have been synthesized from the fresh pomegranate peels extract using the precipitation method. The ZnO nanoparticles were produced from the reaction of fresh peels extract with zinc acetate salt which was used as zinc source in the presence of 2 M NaOH. The green synthesized nanoparticles were characterized through X-ray diffraction (XRD), UV-Vis diffuse reflection spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and Atomic force microscopy (AFM). The XRD patterns confirm the formation of hexagonal wurtzite phase structure for ZnO synthesized using pomegranate peels extract with average crystalline size of 28 nm. FTIR spectra identify the presence of many active functional groups for the pom

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Pakistan Association Of Dermatologists
Zinc as an essential element for normal immune reactions and as a therapeutic agent for autoimmune diseases
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Compared to Estimate the volume of runoff Basins valley Dwiridj my way (SCS-CN), (GIUH) using (GIS)
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The valley Dwiridj of drainage basins task that lies east of Iraq and thus we have in this study the application of tow models athletes on the three basins of the valley to get Mor e values accurate to Estimate the volume of runoff and peak discharge and time climax and through the use of Technology remote sensing (GIS),has been show through the application of both models, that the maximum value for the amount of Dwiridj valley of (1052/m3/s) According to Equation (SCS-CN) and about (1370.2/m3/s)by approach (GIUH) that difference is the amount of discharge to the Equation (SCS-CN) ar not accurate as(GIUH) approaches Equation ecalling the results of the Field ces Department of damand reservoirs that the volume of runoff to the valley wase

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Process Parameters That Affecting on Surface Roughness in Multi-Point Forming Process Using ANOVA Algorithm
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th

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