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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 28 2024
Journal Name
Medicine
The radio anatomical arrangement of nerve roots at L3 level in cauda equina sac is it affected by diseases?
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An observational study to discover the common conditions affecting the lumbosacral region that may affect lumbosacral position and tension. All the patients, underwent MRI exaamination (magnetic resonance imaging) in the supine position, were examined by the same consultant radiologist. The article was revised by the institutional ethical approval committee. The position of the nerve roots was observed, and the number of nerve roots was calculated anterior to a line passing between the mid-transvers process of L3(third lumbar vertebra). The number of nerve roots ahead of this line was calculated by the radiologist at the level of the right intervertebral foramen and at the left one. This procedure was applied to the normal group, an

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Comparison between the Patterns of Common Breast Diseases Presenting as Breast Lumps in Pregnant and Non-Pregnant Married Women
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Background: Breast lump is one of the most common prevalent complaint of patients attending breast clinics.

Objective: To determine if there is any change in the pattern of common breast, diseases presenting as breast lumps between pregnant and non-pregnant women among patients attending Al-Elwiya Breast Clinic.

Methods: This is a cross – sectional study, with convent's patient sampling setting in AL-Elwiya Breast Cancer Early Detection Clinic from 1st Feb. to 1st May 2018, we collected data from patients with breast lumps including the age groups, pregnancy status, parity status, previous breast diseases, hormonal drugs, menstrual cycle, breast fe

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Civil Engineering And Technology
PREDICTION OF BEARING CAPACITY, ANGLE OF INTERNAL FRICTION, COHESION, AND PLASTICITY INDEX USING ANN (CASE STUDY OF BAGHDAD, IRAQ)
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In the last few years, the use of artificial neural network analysis has increased, particularly, in geotechnical engineering problems and has demonstrated some success. In this research, artificial neural network analysis endeavors to predict the relationship between physical and mechanical properties of Baghdad soil by making different trials between standard penetration test, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, cohesion, angle of internal friction, and bearing capacity. The analysis revealed that the changes in natural water content and plastic limit have a great effect on the cohesion of soil and the angle of internal friction, respectively. . On the other hand, the liquid limit has a great impact on the bearing capacity and

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Civil Engineering And Technology
PREDICTION OF BEARING CAPACITY, ANGLE OF INTERNAL FRICTION, COHESION, AND PLASTICITY INDEX USING ANN (CASE STUDY OF BAGHDAD, IRAQ).
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In the last few years, the use of artificial neural network analysis has increased, particularly, in geotechnical engineering problems and has demonstrated some success. In this research, artificial neural network analysis endeavors to predict the relationship between physical and mechanical properties of Baghdad soil by making different trials between standard penetration test, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, cohesion, angle of internal friction, and bearing capacity. The analysis revealed that the changes in natural water content and plastic limit have a great effect on the cohesion of soil and the angle of internal friction, respectively. . On the other hand, the liquid limit has a great impact on the bearing capacity and

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Civil Engineering And Technology
Prediction of bearing capacity, angle of internal friction, cohesion, and plasticity index using ANN (case study of Baghdad, Iraq)
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In the last few years, the use of artificial neural network analysis has increased, particularly, in geotechnical engineering problems and has demonstrated some success. In this research, artificial neural network analysis endeavors to predict the relationship between physical and mechanical properties of Baghdad soil by making different trials between standard penetration test, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, cohesion, angle of internal friction, and bearing capacity. The analysis revealed that the changes in natural water content and plastic limit have a great effect on the cohesion of soil and the angle of internal friction, respectively. . On the other hand, the liquid limit has a great impact on the bearing capacity and

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of Alendronate Treatment on Salivary Levels of Osteoprotegrin and TNF-α in Postmenopausal Woman with Osteoporosis and Periodontal Diseases
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Background: All diseases concerning bone destruction such as osteoporosis and periodontal diseases share common pattern in which the osteoclast cells are absolutely responsible for bone resorption that occurred when osteoclast activity exceeds osteoblast activity. Osteoprotegrin (OPG) considered as novel soluble decoy receptor known as “bone protector” since it prevents extreme bone resorption through inhibition of differentiation and activity of osteoclast by competing for binding site. It binds to receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL) and prevent its interaction with receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B (RANK), thus inhibits osteoclast formation. TNF-α is a pro-inflammatory cytokines having

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 18 2020
Journal Name
Diagnostics
Diagnostic Accuracy of Oral Fluids Biomarker Profile to Determine the Current and Future Status of Periodontal and Peri-Implant Diseases
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Severe periodontitis is ranked as the sixth most prevalent disease affecting humankind, with an estimated 740 million people affected worldwide. The diagnosis of periodontal diseases mainly relies upon assessment of conventional clinical parameters. However, these parameters reflect past, rather than current, clinical status or future disease progression and, likely, outcome of periodontal treatment. Specific and sensitive biomarkers for periodontal diseases have been examined widely to address these issues and some biomarkers have been translated as point-of-care (PoC) tests. The aim of this review was to provide an update on PoC tests for use in the diagnosis and management of periodontal diseases. Among the PoC tests developed so

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 05 2015
Journal Name
College Of Education For Pure Science, Ibn-al-haitham
University of Baghdad
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SH Mahdi, AM Mahdi, KS Ismaeil, College of Education for Pure Science, Ibn-Al-Haitham, 2015 - Cited by 7

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed mechanism to activate the role of the Federal board supreme Audit in the examination of the federal budget estimates of the state
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The aim of the research is to present and discuss the subject of the budgeting estimates and how to activate the role of the Federal board of supreme audit in examining these estimates through reference to Articles 6 and 10 of the Federal board of supreme Law, which did not restrict Federal board of supreme in Preventive control on examination process for planning which is prepared from the government units, as the result of a large amount  of government units Provisions and the weakness of estimates in most of its items, which rely on personal assessment and not based on scientific and logical basis of the estimate, which leads to the emergence of a deficit is not true in the general budget and this seems clear in most Iraq

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Computers & Electrical Engineering
Utilizing different types of deep learning models for classification of series arc in photovoltaics systems
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