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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The matter, its wisdom, and models of its applications In Ahmadiyya interpretations Research drawn from a doctoral thesis
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This study examined the tagged (the matter, its ruling, and examples of its applications in Ahmadiyya interpretations), the study of devising formulas of commissioning, especially the matter from the book of interpretation, which is: (Ahmadiyyeh’s interpretations), and the contemplative of the nature of (Ahmadiyya’s interpretations) realizes that the cognitive, linguistic and juristic knowledge product and the verses of judgments And other is the focus of this immortal travel, as it is truly a comprehensive book containing what the students of knowledge, scholars and the general public need in terms of interpreting the legal verses, and it is not possible to reach an understanding of the Book of God Almighty, and to clarify his purpo

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 17 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental and Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network of Bed Porosity and Solid Holdup in Viscous 3-Phase Inverse Fluidization
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In the present investigation, bed porosity and solid holdup in viscous three-phase inverse fluidized bed (TPIFB) are determined for aqueous solutions of carboxy methyl cellulose (CMC) system using polyethylene and polypropylene as  a particles with low-density and diameter (5 mm) in a (9.2 cm) inner diameter with height (200 cm) of vertical perspex column. The effectiveness of gas velocity Ug , liquid velocity UL, liquid viscosity μL, and particle density ρs on bed porosity BP and solid holdups εg were determined. The bed porosity increases with "increasing gas velocity", "liquid velocity", and "liquid viscosity". Solid holdup decreases with increasing gas, liquid

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Publication Date
Wed May 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Analysis the effect of economic conditions on the vegetative change in Baghdad using GIS and remote sensing techniques
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The study of vegetative change of cities is one of the most important studies related to human life because of its direct correlation with the temporal conditions that occur. These include the economic problems that force people to move and look for job opportunities in the city, which leads to an increase in the population density of cities, especially for cities with an important economic and administrative location as in the capital city of Baghdad. In this study, the effect of the increasing in population density was analyzed on the urban planning of Baghdad city. The decreasing in vegetation was due to the increasing of urban areas on the outskirts of the city, which led to an increase in its area. Moreover, urban cities increased t

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Association between anti-CMV IgG and salivary levels of IL‐6 and TNF-α in chronic periodontitis
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Background: Periodontitis is an infection attributable to multiple infectious; it causes an interrelated cellular and humoral host immune responses. Recent reports have indicated that human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) may contribute to pathogenesis of periodontitis. The HCMV can stimulate the release of cytokines from inflammatory and non-inflammatory cells and weaken the periodontal immune defense. This study aimed to reveal the presence of anti-CMV IgG, and determine the levels of IL‐6 and TNF-α and to correlate the presence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) with cytokines levels. Materials and Methods: Forty patients with chronic periodontitis and 40 healthy control subjects (their age and sex were matched with the patients) were involved

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 21 2020
Journal Name
British Journal Of Cancer
Epigenome-wide analysis reveals functional modulators of drug sensitivity and post-treatment survival in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia
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Abstract<sec> <title>Background

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) patients display a highly variable clinical course, with progressive acquisition of drug resistance. We sought to identify aberrant epigenetic traits that are enriched following exposure to treatment that could impact patient response to therapy.

Methods

Epigenome-wide analysis of DNA methylation was performed for 20 patients at two timepoints during treatment. The prognostic significance of differentially methylated regions (DMRs) was assessed in independent cohorts of 139 and 1

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Developing Arabic License Plate Recognition System Using Artificial Neural Network and Canny Edge Detection
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            In recent years, there has been expanding development in the vehicular part and the number of vehicles moving on the roads in all the sections of the country. Arabic vehicle number plate identification based on image processing is a dynamic area of this work; this technique is used for security purposes such as tracking of stolen cars and access control to restricted areas. The License Plate Recognition System (LPRS) exploits a digital camera to capture vehicle plate numbers is used as input to the proposed recognition system. Basically, the proposed system consists of three phases, vehicle license plate localization, character segmentation, and character recognition, the

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Water Treatment Using Zinc Nanoparticles and Apricot Plant Extracts from Organic and Inorganic Pollution
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The apricot plant was washed, dried, and powdered after harvesting to produce a fine powder that was used in water treatment. created an alcoholic extract from the apricot plant using ethanol, which was then analysed using GC-MS, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy to identify the active components. Zinc nanoparticles were created using an alcoholic extract. FTIR, UV-Vis, SEM, EDX, and TEM are used to characterize zinc nanoparticles. Using a continuous processing procedure, zinc nanoparticles with apricot extract and powder were employed to clean polluted water. Firstly, 2 g of zinc nanoparticles were used with 20 ml of polluted water, and the results were Tetra 44% and Levo 32%; after

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
EFFECT OF LAND DEGRADATION DEGREE ON THE LAND COVER TYPE USING GIS TECHNOLOGY IN THE WEST OF BAGHDAD/IRAQ
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In this study is the phenomenon of desertification risk assessment in the Abu Ghraib area west of Baghdad/Iraq, which has an area of about (384.168 km 2), that the annual mean temperature is more than (22 C). Rainfall was low, ranging from the (200 mm) per year for Iraq and (2.82) mm per year of the study area* temperature is high and evaporation is also high (mm 7.73) per year*, so the climate in general of the dry type and the system of soil moisture is the kind of Aridic (Torric). To this study was to identify three indicators to monitor for the period from 2001-2005 using GIS and these indicators are (soil, groundwater and the nature of land use), using ArcGIS 9.1. The results showed that the risk of desertification was part of the leve

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 17 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
the incidence and the clinical significance of gray zone in the clinical phases of chronic hepatitis B infection
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Background: five clinical phases were described in patients with chronic (HBV) infection: HBeAg- positive HBV infection, HBeAg- positive chronic HB, HBeAg negative HBV infection, HBeAg-negative CHB and occult HBV infection. Aim: This study aimed to determine the incidence of the unclassified phase (gray zone) in chronic hepatitis B patients and its significant in the clinical practice. Patients and methods: The study was conducted retrospectively on 109 patients' who have HBsAg positive for more than 6 months. The data recorded include; HbeAg and anti-HBe Ab, ultrasound of the abdomen, HBV DNA load and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), accordingly; we classify the patients to known clinical phases. Patients who were unfit one of these phases

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