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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 11 2024
Journal Name
Maaen Journal For Medical Sciences
Pharmacological Supplements Efficacy in Management of chronic pain associated with Sickle Cell Disease: A narrative review
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Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a hereditary ailment that can cause severe pain and suffering to people who are affected. However, with continued investment in research and treatment options, we can make progress towards improving the lives of those with SCD. Over 40% of patients experience painful vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs), so we must work towards finding solutions and providing support for those living with this condition, These episodes, a hallmark of SCD, significantly contribute to morbidity, mortality, and a diminished quality of life, while also incurring substantial healthcare costs. Chronic pain particularly affects older adolescents and adults with SCD, with over half reporting daily discomfort. Opioid-based analgesics, though sti

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Nonlinear Ritz Approximation for the Camassa-Holm Equation by Using the Modify Lyapunov-Schmidt method
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          In this work, the modified Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction is used to find a nonlinear Ritz approximation of Fredholm functional defined by the nonhomogeneous Camassa-Holm equation and Benjamin-Bona-Mahony. We introduced the modified Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction for nonhomogeneous problems when the dimension of the null space is equal to two.  The nonlinear Ritz approximation for the nonhomogeneous Camassa-Holm equation has been found as a function of codimension twenty-four.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Kinetic, Isotherm and Thermodynamic Studies on the Ciprofloxacin Adsorption from Aqueous Solution Using Aleppo bentonite
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          Aleppo bentonite was investigated to remove ciprofloxacin hydrochloride from aqueous solution. Batch adsorption experiments were conducted to study the several factors affecting the removal process, including contact time, pH of solution, bentonite dosage, ion strength, and temperature. The optimum contact time, pH of solution and bentonite dosage were determined to be 60 minutes, 6 and 0.15 g/50 ml, respectively. The bentonite efficiency in removing CIP decreased from 89.9% to 53.21% with increasing Ionic strength from 0 to 500mM, and it increased from 89% to 96.9% when the temperature increased from 298 to 318 K. Kinetic studies showed that the pseudo second-order model was the best in describing  the adsorption sys

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Impact of short term intervention on mother knowledge, attitude and practice to improve oral hygiene of their children aged(4-7) Years Old in Al-Shaab Area - Baghdad City
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Background: Mothers are considered as the key role in effect on child's dental behavior. So it is important to involve her in oral health promotion program to prevent early childhood dental caries from occurring in early age. Objectives: To identify the knowledge, practice and attitude of mothers about the oral health of their children. And to measure the change in oral hygiene of children aged (4-7) years old after one month of interventional program on their mothers. Type of study: Non-randomized interventional.Methods: Non-randomized interventional study for one month in Al Shaab area in Baghdad to 65 mothers who have children aged (4-7) years .A modified administrated questionnaire is given to assess mothers’ knowledge, practice an

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Measuring Changes in Temperature Rates due to Urban Expansion in Selected Municipalities of Baghdad using GIS Technology
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The expansion of building blocks at the expense of agricultural land is one of the main problems causing climate change within the urban area of a city. The research came to determine these indicators, as a study was conducted on the expansion of the building blocks in three municipalities in the city of Baghdad for a period of four decades extended in the form of time cycles for the period (1981-2021) and using ArcMap GIS 10.7 technology. Then, the impact of this expansion on temperature rates was evaluated, as they are the most important climatic elements due to their significant effect on the rest of the elements. The results showed a clear, direct relationship between the increase in urban expansion rates and the corresponding r

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination the Concentration of the Radon in some Drinking Bottled Water in Baghdad using LR-115 Detector
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In the present study ten samples of bottled water from Baghdad conservative were taken to measure the concentration of radon gas by using nuclear track detector LR-115.The result obtained are varying from(0.033)to(0.007)pCi.l-1and these values are very low than the allowed limits (5) pCi.l-1, and specific activity from bottled water has been calculated which was vary from (0.00027)to(0.00126) Bq.l-1 and these values are very low than allowed limits (0.0123) Bq.l-1 that mean the bottled water was treated with good treatment to decrease the side effect of radon

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Indicators of Mental image among Students of the University of Baghdad about Iraqi Political Parties-(a research based on a master thesis)
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Media studies have focused mostly on the issue of the mental image because the image that is formed in the mind has become not only a photo of a human being and having kept for himself. This image has an outside influence which may sometimes up to the formation of the fate of others and it sometimes includes individuals and groups together.
This study comes in the context of identifying the image of Iraqi political parties among Iraqi university students and the nature of the view that students have in their minds about these parties.
Chapter one includes the problem of the research, the importance of the study, the goals and method used. Chapter two is divided into two sections: section one deals with the concept of the mental i

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling Jar Test Results Using Gene Expression to Determine the Optimal Alum Dose in Drinking Water Treatment Plants
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Coagulation is the most important process in drinking water treatment. Alum coagulant increases the aluminum residuals, which have been linked in many studies to Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, it is very important to use it with the very optimal dose. In this paper, four sets of experiments were done to determine the relationship between raw water characteristics: turbidity, pH, alkalinity, temperature, and optimum doses of alum [   .14 O] to form a mathematical equation that could replace the need for jar test experiments. The experiments were performed under different conditions and under different seasonal circumstances. The optimal dose in every set was determined, and used to build a gene expression model (GEP). The models were co

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
A careful study of the effect of the infectious diseases and refuge on the dynamical behavior of prey-scavenger modeling
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In this paper, the dynamics of scavenger species predation of both susceptible and infected prey at different rates with prey refuge is mathematically proposed and studied. It is supposed that the disease was spread by direct contact between susceptible prey with infected prey described by Holling type-II infection function. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution are investigated. The stability constraints of all equilibrium points are determined. In addition to establishing some sufficient conditions for global stability of them by using suitable Lyapunov functions. Finally, these theoretical results are shown and verified with numerical simulations.

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